\u5047\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\u8bfb\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u7248\u662f2001\u5e74\u51fa\u7684\uff0c2018\u5e74\u518d\u7248\uff0c\u5c45\u7136\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u4e2d\u6587\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7248\u3002\u8bfb\u8fdb\u53bb\u624d\u53d1\u73b0\u592a\u6709\u610f\u601d\u4e86\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u603b\u662f\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u7cbe\u5f69\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e00\u904d\u4e00\u904d\u91cd\u590d\u7740\u3002\u8bfb\u5b8c\u4f30\u8ba1\u8fd8\u8981\u4e00\u9635\u5b50\uff0c\u5c31\u628a\u524d\u97621\/3\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u5148\u6309\u60ef\u4f8b\u505a\u4e9b\u6458\u8981\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The results confirmed what many value investors already knew. First, it is better to be in the market than out \u2013 over the long-term, world stock markets rise. Secondly, although on average a bull market is four times greater than bear markets, there is no set pattern that allows simple prediction of when a bull market will end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u603b\u662f\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u91cc\u8981\u6bd4\u7a7a\u4ed3\u8981\u597d\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u725b\u5e02\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u662f\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u56db\u500d\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u91cc\u6df7\uff0c\u9519\u8fc7\u725b\u5e02\u624d\u662f\u6700\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The fact that while the patterns have not been identical in each case they have been very similar. First, a new invention is greeted with scepticism from incumbent technology and potential new investors. That scepticism is gradually replaced with enthusiasm, as businessmen come to appreciate the sales potential of the new technology. Soon, new entrants are flocking to the market, and venture capital funding is made available. Companies are started; almost all do well (in terms of share price) in the market on a tidal wave of enthusiasm. So far, so good; but as the technology begins to mature, a sense of realism sets in. Inevitably, for some, cash runs out. Companies begin to fold, only the strong survive and naive investors lose money in the huge rationalisation. Pessimism begins to pervade the marketplace and stock prices fall across the board. Eventually, the market stabilizes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5e02\u573a\u6545\u4e8b\u603b\u662f\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\uff0c\u867d\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u65b0\u53d1\u660e\u603b\u662f\u5148\u88ab\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u8ba4\u53ef\u3002\u6162\u6162\u5730\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6000\u7591\u968f\u7740\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u770b\u5230\u5e26\u6765\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6f5c\u529b\u800c\u9646\u7eed\u6d88\u9664\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u65b0\u8fdb\u5165\u8005\u53c2\u4e0e\u8fdb\u6765\uff0cVC\u4e5f\u8fdb\u6765\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u65e9\u671f\u4f01\u4e1a\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u90fd\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u59cb\u70ed\u8d77\u6765\uff1b\u5f53\u6280\u672f\u9010\u6b65\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u5f00\u59cb\u5957\u73b0\u79bb\u573a\uff0c\u4f46\u4f01\u4e1a\u5f00\u59cb\u5927\u91cf\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4ec5\u5f3a\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u751f\u5b58\uff0c\u50bb\u4e4e\u4e4e\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u5f00\u59cb\u4e8f\u94b1\uff0c\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u4e0a\u6765\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u5f00\u59cb\u8dcc\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\u5e02\u573a\u518d\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u666e\u904d\u6000\u7591\u4e0d\u4fe1\u2014\u2014> \u6709\u4eba\u5927\u80c6\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u524d\u666f \u2014\u2014> \u65b0\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0d\u9519\u2014\u2014\u2014> \u6280\u672f\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u4e00\u5927\u6279\u4eba\u51b2\u8fdb\u6765 \u2014\u2014> \u53d1\u73b0\u6ca1\u90a3\u4e48\u7f8e\u597d\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3001\u4e8f\u94b1\u2014\u2014> \u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Technology may have changed the world \u2013 but it has not changed human nature. The four most expensive words in the English language are \u2018This time it\u2019s different\u2019 \u201d. As Mark Twain said, history does not repeat itself exactly, but it rhymes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6280\u672f\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u672a\u6539\u53d8\u4eba\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e0a\u9762\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fd0\u884c\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Any technology that necessitates heavy capital expenditure and requires returns to be earned over an extended period is always going to be a high-risk undertaking \u2013 unless, that is, there is some form of protection against competition. This protection may take the form of patent, copyright, legal prohibition or simply fundamental competitive advantage (such as a superior cost curve).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4efb\u4f55\u9700\u8981\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u671f\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u672c\u6295\u5165\u540e\u9762\u9646\u7eed\u6536\u56de\u6210\u672c\u7684\u6280\u672f\u90fd\u662f\u6781\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u7684\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8bb8\u591a\u4fdd\u62a4\u6765\u51cf\u5c11\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e13\u5229\u3001\u7248\u6743\u3001\u7279\u8bb8\u7ecf\u8425\u6743\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u7b54\u5355\u65e0\u6bd4\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u5e38\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u94c1\u8def\u7684\u6545\u4e8b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, despite early problems with safety, the advance of the railways proved inexorable. The simple economics of their ability to shift large volumes of both passengers and freight at speeds much faster than horse-drawn coach traffic, and much more cheaply than canals, made their expansion assured. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the economic power of the railways was obvious, and the technology quickly proven, the introduction of railways in Britain was not a simple or smooth process. Like canals before them, land had to be purchased and existing buildings cleared to allow tracks to be laid between existing urban centres. Compulsory purchase of land has always raised public hackles, and the early locomotives were noisy and dangerous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The railways of Britain and America followed slightly different paths, but there were many similarities. In both cases their economic superiority caused the respective canal networks to gradually fall into disuse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u6027\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u5b89\u5168\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u3002\u94c1\u8def\u53d1\u5c55\u521d\u671f\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u51b3\u5b9a\u5176\u80dc\u51fa\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u96be\u5f97\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u76ca\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u770b\u4e0d\u89c1\u7684\u624b\u201d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6e90\u6cc9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u540c\u6837\u7684\u987e\u8651\u6b63\u5728\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u662f\u52bf\u4e0d\u53ef\u6321\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is ironic, then, that the first railways were built as feeder lines for the canal system. The first railway set up to compete directly with a canal was the Liverpool and Manchester in 1826.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u5e38\u5e38\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8865\u5145\u89d2\u8272\u51fa\u73b0\u30021826\u5e74\u5229\u7269\u6d66\u548c\u66fc\u5f7b\u65af\u7279\u95f4\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6761\u94c1\u8def\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u53bb\u77bb\u4ef0\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Like the mining stocks, the railway stocks were highly geared instruments. Investors made an initial scrip payment of 5%, with an obligation to provide further funding in the future. If the company\u2019s future prospects were well regarded, as they usually were at the time, the scrip would trade at a premium to its issue price. The implied gearing in the scrips \u2013 for a 5% scrip, this was 20 times \u2013 was similar to the level of gearing in many modern-day traded options. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u77ff\u4e1a\u80a1\u3001\u94c1\u8def\u80a1\u5c45\u7136\u662f\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u9996\u4ed85%\u7684\u8bc1\u5238\uff0c20\u500d\u6760\u6746\uff01\u2014\u2014\u4f69\u670d\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u548c\u5fc3\u810f\uff0c\u96be\u602a\u4e00\u5ea6\u5982\u6b64\u75af\u72c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first railways to be built enjoyed what today would be called \u2018first-mover advantage\u2019, but one of the clearest lessons of corporate and investment history is that without some barrier to entry, first-mover advantage can be swiftly lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u5165\u58c1\u5792\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u9886\u5148\u4f18\u52bf\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u53cd\u590d\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u7684\u771f\u7406\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As with many dot-com companies 150 or so years later, few of these proposals for later lines rested on rigorous analysis of their revenue-generating potential. Few investors attempted to calculate whether revenue would exceed costs by a sufficient margin to provide an adequate return on invested capital\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u6240\u4ee5\u505a\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u8ba4\u771f\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u628a\u9884\u6d4b\u7b97\u7ec6\u81f4\u4e00\u4e9b\uff1b\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u628a\u672a\u6765\u4e5f\u8003\u8651\u7ec6\u81f4\u4e9b\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u6781\u96be\u80fd\u53ef\u8d35\uff0c\u4e5f\u503c\u5f97\u957f\u671f\u575a\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All four are typical of those that help to bring periods of financial excess to a close. First, as a large number of the shares were partly paid, many investors found they were overgeared<\/strong> and unable to make further payments without selling some of their holdings, which put further downward pressure on the price. Secondly, the financial projections with which many companies had raised money proved wildly over-optimistic<\/strong> \u2013 critically, they neglected to take account of the increasingly competitive nature of the business. Thirdly, the environment of speculative euphoria encouraged a fair amount of fraud and business practices that later did not stand up to scrutiny<\/strong>. Finally, the economic and interest rate environment began to change. In October 1845, the Bank of England raised interest rates from 2.5% to 3%, and interest rates continued to rise thereafter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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