{"id":1125,"date":"2021-10-06T20:43:28","date_gmt":"2021-10-06T12:43:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1125"},"modified":"2022-04-09T00:30:06","modified_gmt":"2022-04-08T16:30:06","slug":"engines-that-move-markets-2123-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1125","title":{"rendered":"Engines That Move Markets 2123-2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u672c\u6765\u8ba1\u52123\u7bc7\u5199\u5b8c\u7684\uff0c\u6458\u5f55\u5b8c\u94c1\u8def\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5c31\u611f\u89c9\u8349\u7387\u4e86\u3002\u5e72\u8106\u4e0d\u8bbe\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u8bfb\u5230\u54ea\u5199\u5230\u54ea\u513f\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7535\u62a5\u7684\u6545\u4e8b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For all the rapid gains in revenue, the mail service represented a lucrative extra rather than a key revenue stream for the railways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u94c1\u8def\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u74e6\u89e3\u4e86\u539f\u5148\u7528\u9a6c\u4f20\u9012\u7684\u90ae\u653f\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u90ae\u653f\u670d\u52a1\u7ed9\u94c1\u8def\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u6536\u5165\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The telegraph companies were already in receipt of large government subsidies by the time the Civil War broke out. The Pacific Telegraph Act of 1860 provided for up to $40,000 ($5m) per annum in subsidies to telegraph companies in return for transmission of federal messages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7535\u62a5\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e5f\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u8865\u8d34\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5728\u5357\u5317\u6218\u4e89\u65f6\u671f\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even in 1880 Western Union accounted for 80% of America\u2019s telegraph traffic, but with the absorption of B&amp;O, Western Union effectively was the telegraph industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u897f\u8054\u5f7b\u5e95\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u7535\u62a5\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5784\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately Western Union\u2019s success depended upon two things: the outcome of a series of lawsuits regarding the ownership of the patents on improvements to the telegraph, and a dominant position in the physical ownership of the network. These two aspects were linked, in the sense that without the Western Union patents, ownership of the cables was of little value. There was also some luck. Western Union\u2019s industry dominance had made it careless about protecting its rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e13\u5229\u6743\u548c\u7ebf\u8def\u7f51\u7edc\u4f18\u52bf\u5e2e\u52a9\u897f\u8054\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6210\u529f\u3002\u4f46\u4e5f\u662f\u628a\u53cc\u5203\u5251\u3002\u548c\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u5173\u7cfb\u641e\u50f5\u540e\u8d54\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u94b1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Learning these lessons proved an expensive exercise. <strong>Fatally for Western Union, the company did not see the technology shift that would make its patents obsolete.<\/strong> At the time, the potential challenge from the telephone must have seemed remote to a company which had achieved a dominant position in its own new form of information transfer. Not only did it dominate its industry, it also had on its books the most eminent and successful scientists of the age. <strong>Western Union\u2019s internal records show that it saw the telephone as only a peripheral threat. It also assumed that should such a threat emerge, the company\u2019s scientific resources and its financial strength would give it the strength to resist.<\/strong> Since the company was in perhaps its most prosperous phase, with strong revenue and profits growth, such a view was not unreasonable. But as history was to prove, it was completely misplaced.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u897f\u8054\u4e07\u4e07\u6ca1\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e13\u5229\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u4ee3\u53d8\u8fc1\u8fc7\u671f\u3002\u897f\u8054\u4e5f\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u7535\u8bdd\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4f46\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u503c\u5f97\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e48\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u76f4\u63a5\u65ad\u9001\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u8fd8\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u53cd\u590d\u518d\u4e0a\u6f14\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately for Bell, the patent was never filed in Britain and thus he failed to obtain protection in the richest market in the world, albeit one where communication was controlled by the public sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u5c14\u516c\u53f8\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u4e13\u5229\u6ca1\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u641e\u5b9a\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u82f1\u56fd\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6700\u80a5\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u5411\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u624b\u91cc\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The telephone was demonstrated by the difficulty Bell\u2019s colleagues had in raising funds to develop the business. Bell was forced to spend much of his time marketing the new invention, to convince potential backers as to its technical viability and its practical use. Public demonstrations were set up in the presence of venerable scientists, such as Sir William Thomson connecting Boston and New York and conducting a conversation between Bell and Watson. In October 1876 they followed this up with demonstrations between Boston and Cambridge, Massachusetts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bell\u2019s marketing campaign included such \u2018stunts\u2019 as using 16 Yale professors rather than a wire and letting the current carrying his conversation flow through their bodies. Despite these efforts, <strong>it took until May 1877 for the first telephones to be leased. The sum paid was $20 ($1,500)<\/strong>. By August the number of telephones in use had expanded to 778 and it became necessary to enter into a more formal business agreement. <strong>The Bell Telephone Association was created, with Bell, Hubbard and Sanders each receiving 30% of the shares and Thomas Watson 10%. <\/strong>At that time the venture had no subscribed capital; it had effectively been bankrolled by\u00a0Sanders, who had signed notes totalling in excess of $110,000 (nearly $10m) and was himself close to bankruptcy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The investing environment of the time was not conducive to raising capital. Recent great leaps forward in technology had created an earlier bubble; when this burst, it resulted in substantial losses for many investors, leaving the public soured with promises of future advances. Even though Bell\u2019s demonstrations attracted favourable press comment, funds were not readily forthcoming. <strong>The disasters, bankruptcies and scandals that followed the financing of the railroads were still fresh in investors\u2019 minds. <\/strong>It required more than a concept, however well marketed, to attract funds. The euphoria which surrounded the railroads and which allowed both the overbuilding and the lack of financial or management controls had evaporated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u5c14\u7684\u8fd9\u6bb5\u521b\u4e1a\u8fd8\u771f\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u521a\u521a\u94c1\u8def\u72c2\u6f6e\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u8fd8\u6ca1\u75db\u7684\u9192\u8fc7\u795e\u6765\u5c31\u6765\u878d\u8d44\uff0c\u96be\u5ea6\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u6781\u5927\u7684\u3002\u8d1d\u5c14\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u80a1\u6743\u67b6\u6784\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u56db\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e09\u4e2a\u4eba\u540430%\uff0c\u52a9\u624b10%\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u51fa\u94b1\u7684\u53ea\u6709Sanders, \u5929\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The best encapsulation of the prevailing opinion of the time is the fact that Western Union, the company that was best placed to understand the commercial importance of fast and accurate information transfer, dismissed the telephone as an irrelevance. In 1876 the Bell consortium, disheartened by their inability to raise capital, turned to Western Union and offered to sell Bell\u2019s patents for $100,000 (just over $8m). Western Union\u2019s president, William Orton, declined the offer, on the grounds that he could not see a viable commercial use for the telephone. \u201cWhat use,\u201d he asked pleasantly, \u201ccould this company make of an electrical toy?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u975e\u5e38\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6545\u4e8b\u4e86\u30021876\u5e74\u8d1d\u5c14\u878d\u4e0d\u5230\u8d44\uff0c\u8ba1\u5212\u628a\u4e13\u5229\u5356\u7ed9\u897f\u8054\uff0c\u5374\u88ab\u62d2\u7edd\u4e86\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\u897f\u8054\u88ab\u8d1d\u5c14\u6536\u8d2d\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The telephone is so named by its inventor A. G. Bell. He believes that one day they will be installed in every residence and place of business. Bell\u2019s profession is that of a voice teacher. Yet he claims to have discovered an instrument of great practical value in communication which has been overlooked by thousands of workers who have spent years in the field. Bell\u2019s proposals to place his instrument in every home and business is fantastic. The central exchange alone would represent a huge outlay in real estate and buildings, to say nothing of the electrical equipment. In conclusion, the committee feels that it must advise against any investments in Bell\u2019s scheme. We do not doubt that it will find users in special circumstances, but any development of the kind and scale Bell so fondly imagines is utterly out of the question.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u5c14\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u60f3\u5230\u7535\u8bdd\u8981\u5b89\u88c5\u5230\u6bcf\u5bb6\u6bcf\u6237\u3001\u6bcf\u4e2a\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4e4b\u524d\u662f\u4e2a\u58f0\u97f3\u8001\u5e08\u3002\u8fd9\u6bb5\u897f\u8054\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e89\u8bae\u70b9\u5c45\u7136\u662f\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u573a\u666f\u662f\u5343\u5bb6\u4e07\u6237\u8fd8\u662f\u7279\u5b9a\u573a\u666f\u3002\u8981\u662f\u7279\u5b9a\u573a\u666f\u8c8c\u4f3c\u5927\u5bb6\u5c31\u80fd\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u8d1d\u5c14\u8bf4\u8d77\u6765\u5343\u5bb6\u4e07\u6237\u5c31\u8ba9\u5927\u5bb6\u7406\u89e3\u4ed6\u4e3a\u795e\u7ecf\u75c5\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This tactic was soon augmented by a drive to increase the rate of business growth in a bid to reduce the opportunities for new entrants, and by moves to take control of competitors, either publicly or secretly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9762\u5bf9\u6709\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u4f4e\u4ef7\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u8d1d\u5c14\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u7b56\u7565\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u5c3d\u91cf\u591a\u7684\u4e89\u593a\u5ba2\u6237\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c3d\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u5bf9\u624b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market strategy was fairly simple: to achieve as close to a monopoly as possible by growth and acquisition, but also to seek to reduce prices in order to stimulate line usage and exclude new competitors.These tactics demanded that AT&amp;T become more efficient and Vail moved to reduce costs by eliminating duplication and increasing efficiency. One by-product of this drive was the consolidation of research activities into what later became the Bell Laboratories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f4e\u8c37\u671f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7b56\u7565\u4e5f\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e76\u8d2d\u548c\u6210\u957f\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u5784\u65ad\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u964d\u4ef7\u6765\u523a\u6fc0\u4f7f\u7528\u51cf\u5c11\u7ade\u4e89\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u516c\u53f8\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u628a\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u95e8\u780d\u4e86\uff0c\u6210\u7acb\u4e86\u540e\u6765\u7684\u8d1d\u5c14\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rate of top-line revenue growth slowed from its early rapid pace, an average compounded growth rate of 16% over the 15-year period from 1880 to 1895. In the second phase, growth remained brisk at 14%, but profit margins fell from over 40% to 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u5c14\u7684\u6210\u957f\u4e5f\u5f88\u96be\u5f97\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed15\u5e74\u4fdd\u630116%\u589e\u901f\uff0c\u6bdb\u5229\u8fd8\u8d8540%\uff1b\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u589e\u901f\u867d\u7136\u964d\u5230\u4e8614%\uff0c\u4f46\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u8dcc\u5230\u4e8630%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For early investors in the American Bell Telephone Company, the rewards were exceptional and were reflected in a rising share price and a dividend payout policy which on average distributed two thirds of the company\u2019s net income in annual dividends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u5c14\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u56de\u62a5\u8fd8\u4e0d\u9519\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Bell, the refusal of Western Union to buy his patents marked the birth of American Bell, the Bell operating companies and eventually AT&amp;T. The major milestone in this regard was the decision against Western Union and Elisha Gray, which confirmed Bell\u2019s primacy and the strength of his patent rights. From this point forward, the fortunes of the two companies would march in opposite directions. The message was not lost on the stock market. As soon as the potential of the telephone became clear, the fortunes of those who depended on telegraph revenues went into relative decline. The only action that could have saved Western Union would have been to move swiftly and aggressively to adopt the telephone technology, but this action was barred by the court decision and the subsequent agreement which gave the Bell companies patent protection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u897f\u8054\u7684\u62d2\u7edd\u6210\u5c31\u4e86\u8d1d\u5c14\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u7684AT&amp;T\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key decision for AT&amp;T was whether or not to continue with a course of action that would inevitably bring conflict with the authorities. The company preferred the route of compromise that would at least protect its dominant position within the industry. A solution was reached. It was to set the conditions for the company for the next 60 years. In this sense, the management was extremely forward-thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AT&amp;T\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u8fd8\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u5de7\u5999\uff0c\u4e0d\u5408\u4f5c\u5c31\u88ab\u5e72\u4e86\u3002\u5408\u4f5c\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5784\u65ad\u6743\u529b\u3002\u975e\u5e38\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u59a5\u534f\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u76d1\u7ba1\u5408\u4f5c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u5927\u597d\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u672c\u6765\u8ba1\u52123\u7bc7\u5199\u5b8c\u7684\uff0c\u6458\u5f55\u5b8c\u94c1\u8def\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5c31\u611f\u89c9\u8349\u7387\u4e86\u3002\u5e72\u8106\u4e0d\u8bbe\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u8bfb\u5230\u54ea\u5199\u5230\u54ea\u513f\u5427\u3002 \u7535\u62a5\u7684\u6545\u4e8b For all [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-book"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6VzCl-i9","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1117,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1117","url_meta":{"origin":1125,"position":0},"title":"Engines 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