\u7167\u660e\u7684\u6545\u4e8b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u53d1\u660e\u7535\u706f\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5bb6\u55bb\u6237\u6653\u4e86\uff0c\u53cd\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u8ba9\u4eba\u603b\u611f\u89c9\u77e5\u9053\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u8ba4\u771f\u8bfb\u8d77\u6765\u7535\u706f\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u611f\u5230\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u7cbe\u5f69\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7167\u660e\u4ece\u6700\u65e9\u7684\u8721\u70db\uff0c\u5230\u9cb8\u6cb9\u3001\u677e\u8282\u6cb9\u3001\u7164\u6cb9\u5230\u7164\u6c14\u706f\u76db\u884c\u4e00\u65f6\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u7535\u5b64\u706f\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u624d\u5230\u4e86\u767d\u70bd\u706f\u3002\u767d\u70bd\u706f\u8fd8\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u76f4\u6d41\u9001\u7535\u7684\u53d1\u7535+\u7167\u660e\u96c6\u6210\uff0c\u5230\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5927\u7535\u5382+\u4ea4\u6d41\u8f93\u9001\u8d70\u5230\u73b0\u4ee3\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u7684LED\u666e\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The demand was certainly there; so great was it that the schools of whales that once roamed the Atlantic had been hunted out of existence or forced away from their traditional feeding grounds. Whale oil prices rose to $2.50 per gallon (almost $400 a gallon in today\u2019s terms), promising high potential returns for viable alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u7167\u660e\u53ea\u80fd\u7528\u9cb8\u6cb9\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4eca\u5929\u7684400\u7f8e\u5143\u4e00\u52a0\u4ed1\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u8d35\u4e86\u3002\u7167\u660e\u7684\u6539\u5584\u9700\u6c42\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although an expensive form of lighting, town gas existed as a profitable monopoly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whatever the reason, it was not long before this complacent stance had to be rethought. The abuse of the gas companies\u2019 monopoly position fostered the desire for new sources of lighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6b63\u662f\u9cb8\u9c7c\u6cb9\u7684\u6602\u8d35\uff0c\u624d\u8ba9\u7164\u6c14\u706f\u80fd\u591f\u5784\u65ad\u6027\u83b7\u5229\u3002\u4e5f\u6b63\u662f\u7164\u6c14\u706f\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5784\u65ad\u80fd\u529b\u6ee5\u7528\u8ba9\u5927\u5bb6\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u7167\u660e\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Helping to generate end demand for a product was not a new business strategy even in the 1800s. Before installing arc lighting, a large amount of initial capital was required to fund the cost of the necessary infrastructure. If co-funding could help Brush expand the potential market, then the returns to his manufacturing concerns would increase accordingly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
His decision to help establish the operating companies was assisted by the fact that the level of excitement in the market caused the share prices of the operating companies to rise immediately to a premium, based solely on the expectation of future profits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7167\u660e\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u751f\u610f\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u91cd\u6295\u5165\u3002\u5efa\u7acb\u8fd0\u8425\u516c\u53f8\u662f\u4e2a\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u65b0\u4e3b\u610f\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u53ef\u4ee5\u7acb\u5373\u6da8\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whatever the result, forecasts of profitability for a new technology often overstate its real economic potential, as they ignore the fact that there will be a competitive response. For new entrants, finances are invariably limited, and the inevitable competitive response produces worse-than-expected cash flow. As a consequence, even when the technology actually does prove to be superior, receivership and bankruptcy are still frequently the result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u9884\u6d4b\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4f30\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u672a\u6765\u7ade\u4e89\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u65b0\u8fdb\u5165\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u878d\u8d44\u5c31\u662f\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u7ade\u4e89\u5bfc\u81f4\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u603b\u662f\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u8981\u5dee\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5373\u4fbf\u4ea7\u80fd\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u80fd\u51fa\u6765\u4e5f\u8bc1\u660e\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u4f46\u7834\u4ea7\u4e5f\u5e38\u5e38\u65e0\u6cd5\u907f\u514d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5c31\u662f\u6b8b\u9177\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u73b0\u5b9e\u603b\u662f\u6ca1\u90a3\u4e48\u7f8e\u597d\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u8981\u9aa8\u611f\u8bb8\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
History records that investors lost huge sums of money by investing in the arc lighting companies. The losses were not a result of a misguided view of electrical light as providing a prospective technological breakthrough. Eventually that breakthrough came. The problem was that this branch of the technology could not provide the type of light required for widespread use, nor could it compete commercially, even in smaller specialist segments of the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7535\u5f27\u706f\u8ba9\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u4e8f\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u635f\u5931\u8ba9\u4eba\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7535\u706f\u6280\u672f\u8d70\u4e0d\u901a\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5176\u5b9e\u4e5f\u53cd\u590d\u4e0a\u6f14\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6280\u672f\u8def\u7ebf\u8d70\u4e0d\u901a\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u6280\u672f\u8def\u7ebf\u8d70\u4e0d\u901a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u662f\u9700\u8981\u8ba4\u771f\u3001\u52a1\u5b9e\u53bb\u5206\u6790\u518d\u5f62\u6210\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u3002\u8981\u907f\u514d\u88ab\u8bef\u5bfc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Without a perception of success, this capital was unlikely to be forthcoming, so maintaining optimism was vital. Luckily, this was something which Edison, for one, fully understood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u7684\u6700\u5927\u7279\u957f\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f\u53d1\u660e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6f14\u8bf4\u3002\u80fd\u5728\u6280\u672f\u6210\u719f\u524d\u5c31\u5ffd\u60a0\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u641e\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He was a prolific inventor, with more than 1,000 patents to his name. Most of the leading financiers of the day, including Gould, Morgan and Rothschild, were involved in ventures of his in some shape or form. Many of these were commercial failures, but others were not. His lighting company eventually was to become General Electric, while many electric utilities in the USA began by franchising his technology, and still bear his name today\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u662f\u804c\u4e1a\u53d1\u660e\u5bb6\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u5343\u4f59\u9879\u4e13\u5229\u3002\u5f53\u4ee3\u7684\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u53e4\u5c14\u5fb7\u3001\u6469\u6839\u548c\u7f57\u65af\u67f4\u5c14\u5fb7\u90fd\u548c\u4ed6\u4e00\u8d77\u6210\u7acb\u8fc7\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u516c\u53f8\u5c31\u5931\u8d25\u4e86\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u4e5f\u6709\u6210\u529f\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7535\u706f\u516c\u53f8\u6700\u540e\u53d8\u6210\u4e86GE\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Vanderbilts, for example, had been heavily involved with Western Union, and had thus experienced at firsthand both the threats and opportunities posed by technological innovation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As well as their railroad and telegraph interests, they were substantial investors in gas companies. When news of Edison\u2019s discovery reached them, they reacted quickly. On 25 September 1878 their business manager was dispatched to meet Edison and acquire an interest in this new competing technology. Within a month, a new company with a proposed capitalisation of $300,000 ($50.5m) had been formed. Edison was to receive $150,000 ($25.25m) in phases, in return for 50% of his interest. The Vanderbilt family made their investment through Western Union, so as to avoid undermining publicly their existing gas company interests. Edison received an initial tranche of $30,000 ($5.5m) on 12 October 1878.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8303\u5fb7\u6bd4\u5c14\u7279\u771f\u662f\u5927\u725b\uff0c\u641e\u8fd0\u6cb3\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u5356\u6389\uff0c\u8f6c\u5230\u641e\u94c1\u8def\uff0c\u6210\u4e86\u5927\u4f6c\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u6210\u529f\u641e\u4e86\u7535\u62a5\uff0c\u800c\u4eca\u6df1\u5165\u53c2\u4e0e\u7164\u6c14\u7167\u660e\u4e8b\u4e1a\uff0c\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u7684\u8282\u594f\u8e0f\u7684\u65e0\u6bd4\u51c6\uff0c\u8fd8\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u6295\u5230\u4e86\u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u771f\u662f\u5927\u795e\u3002\u80fd\u591f\u6d1e\u7a7f\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u548c\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8001\u8303\u6d3e\u624b\u4e0b\u548c\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u89c1\u4e00\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u4e4b\u5185\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\u5c31\u8bbe\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u80a1\u672c5000w\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8001\u8303\u6295\u8d44\u536050%\u3002\u52a8\u4f5c\u8fc5\u901f\u3001\u5927\u624b\u7b14\u3002\u6df1\u5165\u53c2\u4e0e\u7164\u6c14\u7167\u660e\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u8fd9\u4e48\u5feb\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56\u5927\u624b\u7b14\u6295\u8d44\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u7684\u7535\u706f\u4e8b\u4e1a\uff0c\u7edd\u5bf9\u9ad8\u624b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
9\u670825\u65e5\u8bbe\u7acb\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\uff0c10\u670812\u65e5\u9996\u7b14\u8d44\u91d1\u5230\u8d26\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u6b3e\u768420%\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u56fd\u5e86\u5047\u671f\uff0c17\u5929\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c150\u5e74\u524d\u771f\u53ef\u8c13\u795e\u901f\u4e86\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He had two principal barriers to overcome. Firstly, he had to come up with a cheaper filament than platinum, one which demonstrated the same resistance to combustion as platinum did. Secondly, he had to devise an electric motor to run the lamps. He also had to maintain the confidence of his investors and the general public. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u771f\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u9996\u5148\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u56f0\u96be\u9700\u8981\u514b\u670d\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u9700\u8981\u627e\u5230\u66ff\u4ee3\u94c2\u91d1\u7684\u706f\u4e1d\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u641e\u4e2a\u53d1\u7535\u673a\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u90fd\u592a\u96be\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u5f97\u7ed9\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\u8ba9\u5927\u5bb6\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u8ba9\u5927\u4f17\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u60c5\u7edd\u5bf9\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It was an extremely taxing time for him since the work pressure was combined with his own illness and an extremely difficult pregnancy for his wife. If this was not enough, one of his rivals, a gentleman called William Sawyer, visited Western Union and contended that he had progressed further than Edison in terms of improving filament technology<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u4e5f\u771f\u5fc3\u96be\uff0c\u5de5\u4f5c\u538b\u529b\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u8fd8\u751f\u75c5\uff0c\u5ab3\u5987\u8fd8\u597d\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u6000\u5b55\uff0c\u5bb6\u91cc\u80af\u5b9a\u662f\u4e00\u56e2\u4e71\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u53bb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u90a3\u91cc\u5ffd\u60a0\u8bf4\u6709\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u91dc\u5e95\u62bd\u85aa\u554a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5fc3\u6001\u4e0d\u5d29\u5c31\u662f\u9ad8\u624b\uff0c\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u8fd8\u80fd\u4ece\u5bb9\u5e94\u5bf9\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The importance of maintaining confidence with a powerful and convincing presentation was not lost on Edison, and he put on a performance of theatrical proportions, which led to a new contract for Edison himself and the release of new funds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In other words, the presentation relied on Edison\u2019s persuasive skills rather than on an active demonstration of technological advancement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The fact that his audience was financiers, a group of people not typically blessed with in-depth knowledge of technology, undoubtedly helped. Edison continued to raise expectations through the use of the press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u4e5f\u771f\u662f\u547d\u5927\uff0c\u5e78\u4e8f\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u4e0d\u61c2\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u7ed9\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u6f14\u793a\u624d\u80fd\u8499\u6df7\u8fc7\u5173\uff0c\u62ff\u5230\u65b0\u94b1\u3002\u5ffd\u60a0\u80fd\u529b\u672c\u8eab\u8fd8\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This ignorance was a substantial contributor to his refusal to accept the impossibility of certain things which his experience suggested to him could be achieved. Edison himself said many times that for this very reason he had been saved from the dangers of accepting such \u2018impossibilities\u2019. Edison\u2019s faith in his own ability to solve problems sustained him, and his confident manner would sustain investors through such attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0d\u4fe1\u73b0\u6709\u6559\u6761\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u529e\u6210\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u5426\u5219\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u76f8\u4fe1\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5934\u90fd\u5f00\u4e0d\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although the Tesla induction motor was to become of vital importance to the subsequent success of Westinghouse, the extended and costly development period added so much to the increasing capital costs that in 1893 the company was near to financial collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u597d\u6280\u672f\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u516c\u53f8\u641e\u6b7b\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u771f\u662f\u4ef6\u4e13\u4e1a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u7535\u52a8\u673a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4e5f\u6210\u5c31\u4e86\u897f\u5c4b\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4f46\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6210\u672c\u57281893\u5e74\u4e5f\u5dee\u70b9\u628a\u516c\u53f8\u641e\u6b7b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite advances in DC technology, he was unable to match Westinghouse, and Edison\u2019s sales agents began to desert him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ea4\u6d41\u70b9\u6280\u672f\u8ba9\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u8ffd\u4e0d\u4e0a\u897f\u5c4b\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u8fde\u9500\u552e\u4ee3\u7406\u90fd\u6539\u6362\u95e8\u5ead\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u7b49\u56f0\u96be\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u90fd\u5f88\u96be\u7ffb\u8eab\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the electrical supply and lighting market began to take shape, competition over patents was reduced by the formation of patent-pooling arrangements<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e13\u5229\u7ade\u4e89\u88ab\u4e13\u5229\u6c60\u5b89\u6392\u9646\u7eed\u66ff\u4ee3\uff0c\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The main point, though, was that capital was willing to flow to the new \u2018hot\u2019 area well before viability had been established. This process was either assisted or stimulated by the support of the financial press and the promoters of the new companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d44\u672c\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u88ab\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\u6216\u8005\u65b0\u5174\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5ffd\u60a0\u8fdb\u65e9\u671f\u8d5b\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Brush companies\u2019 activities represented basic business strategy \u2013 a strategy repeated in most industries where infrastructure development was a pre-condition for increasing the number of end users.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd+\u7ec8\u7aef\u7528\u6237\uff0c\u4f17\u591a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5178\u578b\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The irony was that when Edison began to make progress with the incandescent lamp, the press \u2013 supported by the scientific community \u2013 proved to be substantially more sceptical. Edison knew the importance of propaganda and worked extremely hard to maintain a confident public fa\u00e7ade, even when progress lagged expectation. This was vital, since without such a fa\u00e7ade it is unlikely that the available financial backers, chastened by the demise of arc lighting, would have provided sufficient capital to bring the technology to a commercial footing. Even with Edison\u2019s track record, there were numerous periods when further capital was nearly not forthcoming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Picking the technology was only one part of the equation. It certainly assisted in identifying the losers, the \u2018old\u2019 technology companies, but selecting the winners required the patience to wait until the industry had matured sufficiently to evolve into an appropriate operating structure. Effectively this meant waiting for a recession to cause the shake-out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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