{"id":1203,"date":"2022-04-08T18:22:26","date_gmt":"2022-04-08T10:22:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1203"},"modified":"2022-04-11T09:40:12","modified_gmt":"2022-04-11T01:40:12","slug":"%e3%80%8athe-power-law%e3%80%8b2214-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1203","title":{"rendered":"The Power Law 2214-1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u7ffb\u8bd1\u8fc7\u6765\u662f\u5e42\u5f8b\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u51fa\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\uff0c\u4e00\u672c\u5f53\u4ee3VC\u53f2\u7684\u6700\u597d\u4f5c\u54c1\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u53cd\u590d\u8bfb\u51e0\u904d\uff0c\u6536\u83b7\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002\u6309\u60ef\u4f8b\u505a\u4e9b\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u518d\u8865\u5145\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4eba\u8bc4\u8bba\u548c\u4f53\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What he didn\u2019t mention was that Khosla was also a preacher of the Valley\u2019s most bracing creed: the belief that most social problems can be ameliorated by technological solutions, if only inventors can be goaded to be sufficiently ambitious. \u201cAll progress depends upon the unreasonable man,\u201d the \u201ccreatively maladjusted,\u201d Khosla declared, borrowing eclectically from George Bernard Shaw and Martin Luther King Jr. \u201cMost people think improbable ideas are unimportant,\u201d he loved to add, \u201cbut the only thing that\u2019s important is something that\u2019s improbable.\u201d Khosla wanted radical dreams, the bolder and more improbable the better.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Joining the storied venture partnership of Kleiner Perkins, Khosla discovered his true m\u00e9tier. His unreasonable impatience\u2014his determination that anything might be possible and everything should work his way\u2014made him one part tyrant, two parts visionary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>VC\u662f\u9700\u8981\u6709\u7279\u8d28\u7684\u4eba\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u7279\u522b\u7684\u601d\u8def\u3002\u79d1\u65af\u62c9Khosla\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u5f88\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6280\u672f\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u624d\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u7a81\u7834\u540e\u624d\u662f\u4ef7\u503c\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u4f3c\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u68a6\u60f3\uff0c\u8d8a\u662f\u5927\u80c6\u3001\u8d8a\u662f\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8a\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He noted matter-of-factly that it\u2019s a trillion-and-a-half-dollar global market being served by prehistoric technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8981\u5bfb\u627e\u5168\u7403\u4e07\u91cc\u7ea7\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u4f9d\u7136\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u53e4\u8001\u7684\u53f2\u524d\u6280\u672f\u7684\u8d5b\u9053\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5341\u5206\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u8d5b\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Which is better: to try and fail, or to fail to try? Reasonable people\u2014well-adjusted people, people without hubris or na\u00efvet\u00e9\u2014routinely fail in life\u2019s important missions by not even attempting them; the way Khosla saw things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u52c7\u6c14\u53bb\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u5c1d\u8bd5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u540e\u77e5\u9053\u5931\u8d25\u662f\u5341\u5206\u96be\u80fd\u53ef\u8d35\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This sort of skewed distribution is sometimes referred to as the 80\/20 rule.In reality, there is nothing magical about the numbers 80 or 20: it could be that just 10 percent of the people hold 80 percent of the wealth, or perhaps 90 percent of it. But whatever the precise numbers, all these distributions are examples of the power law, so called because the winners advance at an accelerating, exponential rate, so that they explode upward far more rapidly than in a linear progression. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Horsley Bridge is an investment company with stakes in venture funds that backed 7,000 startups between 1985 and 2014. A small subset of these deals, accounting for just 5 percent of the total capital deployed, generated fully 60 percent of all the Horsley Bridge returns during this period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\u5176\u5b9e\u662fVC\u751f\u610f\u7684\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f80\/20\uff0c\u800c\u662f5%\u7684\u597d\u9879\u76ee\u83b7\u5f97\u4e8660%\u7684\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u662f\u5927\u6ee1\u8d2f\u6e38\u620f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Khosla made extraordinary claims for his work. <strong>Venture capital was not merely a business; it was a mindset, a philosophy, a theory of progress<\/strong>. Seven hundred million people enjoyed the lifestyle that seven billion wanted, he liked to say. Bold innovators goaded by even bolder venture capitalists offered the best shot at satisfying human aspirations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>VC\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u610f\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u793e\u4f1a\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u54f2\u5b66\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u80c6\u652f\u6301\u52c7\u6562\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u8005\u6765\u66f4\u597d\u6ee1\u8db3\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u6b32\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The revolutions that will matter\u2014the big disruptions that create wealth for inventors and anxiety for workers, or that scramble the geopolitical balance and alter human relations\u2014cannot be predicted based on extrapolations of past data, precisely because such revolutions are so thoroughly disruptive. The future can be discovered by means of iterative, venture-backed experiments. It cannot be predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6280\u672f\u9769\u547d\u548c\u7834\u574f\u6027\u521b\u65b0\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6570\u636e\u88ab\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u6301\u7eed\u8fed\u4ee3\u6765\u8bd5\u9a8c\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5176\u5b9e\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u95e8\u5b9e\u5b9e\u5728\u5728\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u4e00\u4ef6\u521b\u9020\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts may be the most likely source of incremental advances, but <strong>radical rethinks tend to come from outsiders.<\/strong> \u201cIf I\u2019m building a health-care company, I don\u2019t want a health-care CEO,\u201d Khosla says.  I want somebody really smart to rethink the assumptions from the ground up.\u201d After all, he continues, retail innovation did not come from Walmart; it came from Amazon. Media innovation did not come from Time magazine or CBS; it came from YouTube and Twitter and Facebook. Space innovation did not come from Boeing and Lockheed; it came from Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX. Next-generation cars did not come from GM and Volkswagen; they came from another Musk company, Tesla. \u201cI can\u2019t think of a single, major innovation coming from experts in the last thirty, forty years,\u201d Khosla exclaims. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5927\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5f88\u5c11\u662f\u884c\u4e1a\u5185\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u80fd\u591f\u641e\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5916\u884c\u8de8\u884c\u641e\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u53cd\u590d\u8bc1\u660e\u8fc7\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u4f9d\u7136\u96be\u4ee5\u4ee4\u4eba\u76f8\u4fe1\u3002\u8fd9\u5176\u5b9e\u662fVC\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u5047\u8bbe\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u7528\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u628a\u4f20\u7edf\u884c\u4e1a\u91cd\u65b0\u505a\u4e00\u904d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the future is best discovered by means of maverick moon shots, another insight follows. Thanks to the work of the Nobel laureate Ronald Coase, the economics profession has long recognized two great institutions of modern capitalism: <strong>markets, which coordinate activity via price signals and arm\u2019s-length contracts; and corporations, which do so by assembling large teams led by top-down managers<\/strong>. But economists have focused less on the middle ground that Khosla inhabits: the venture-capital networks that lie somewhere <strong>between markets and corporations<\/strong>. And yet networks of venture capitalists deserve closer attention.&nbsp;Venture capitalists have achieved this disproportionate impact because they <strong>combine the strengths of the corporation with the strengths of the market<\/strong>. They channel capital, talented employees, and large customers to promising startups; in this way, they replicate the team formation, resources, and strategic vision to be found in corporations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9VC\u6700\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\uff0c\u79d1\u65af\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u628a\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ef7\u683c\u4fe1\u53f7\u6765\u534f\u8c03\uff0c\u800c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5219\u662f\u4e0a\u4e0b\u7ea7\u5236\u5ea6\u6765\u534f\u8c03\uff0c\u79d1\u65af\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u3002\u4f46Khsola\u8ba4\u4e3aVC\u5219\u96c6\u5408\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u65e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u5236\u6765\u8fde\u63a5\u4eba\u624d\u3001\u52df\u96c6\u548c\u5206\u914d\u8d44\u91d1\u3001\u6ee1\u8db3\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u53c8\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u521b\u8bbe\u4f01\u4e1a\u6765\u7ec4\u7ec7\u56e2\u961f\u3001\u8d44\u6e90\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c2\u5bdf\u662f\u5f88\u5230\u4f4d\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u662fVC\u7684\u795e\u5947\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u518d\u6362\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5931\u8d25\u7684VC\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e8c\u8005\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u504f\u79bb\uff0cKPCB\u5728\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u65f6\u4ee3All in Cleantech\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u628a\u5b9d\u62bc\u5230\u4e86\u653f\u5e9c\u8865\u8d34\u4e0a\uff1b\u4eca\u5929\u4e0d\u5c11\u56fd\u5185\u5f15\u5bfc\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u8fc7\u5206\u8fd4\u6295\u8981\u6c42\u5b9e\u9645\u4e5f\u662f\u5728\u504f\u79bb\u5e02\u573a\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u8ba9\u57fa\u91d1\u6295\u8d44\u5230\u8981\u7d20\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5176\u5b9e\u975e\u5e38\u5371\u9669\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u504f\u79bb\u5c31\u662f\u5916\u884c\u8fdb\u6765\u641eVC\uff0c\u4e0d\u61c2\u5f97\u4f01\u4e1a\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u79bb\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u5371\u9669\u3002VC\u5b9e\u9645\u8fd8\u662f\u4e2a\u86ee\u9ad8\u4e13\u4e1a\u5ea6\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u65e2\u8981\u719f\u6089\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u53c8\u8981\u61c2\u5f97\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u4ece\u4e1a\u52a1\u5230\u8d22\u52a1\u5230\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most financiers allocate scarce capital based on quantitative analysis. <strong>Venture capitalists meet people, charm people, and seldom bother with spreadsheets<\/strong>. Most financiers value companies by projecting their cash flows. Venture capitalists frequently back startups before they have cash flows to analyze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8bfb\u5b8c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u624d\u53d1\u73b0\u6240\u8c13\u6210\u957f\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u65b0\u751f\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u7684VC\u6295\u8d44\u5c31\u662f\u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u4ea7\u751f\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u521b\u9020\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\u548c\u773c\u5149\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4ece0\u52301\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u9760\u91cf\u5316\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u4eec\u7684VC\u6295\u8d44\u6d0b\u6d0b\u6d12\u6d12\u5199\u62a5\u544a\u3001\u505a\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4f46\u4e07\u4e0d\u53ef\u56e0\u4e3a\u5199\u6750\u6599\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9605\u4eba\u3001\u8bc6\u4eba\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u6b21\u8981\u4e86\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e3b\u6b21\u98a0\u5012\u3002\u5199\u6750\u6599\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e8b\u540e\u6c42\u8bc1\u3001\u590d\u76d8\u548c\u53cd\u601d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b8c\u5584\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u9879\u76ee\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u4f9d\u7136\u5728\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728\u6750\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"1-ard-fairchild-rock-as-fa\">1 ARD &amp; Fairchild Rock as FA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The first personal computer was the Altair, created in New Mexico. The first precursor of the worldwide web, the network-management software Gopher, was from Minnesota. The first browser was developed by Marc Andreessen at the University of Illinois. The first search engine, Archie, was invented by Alan Emtage at McGill University in Montreal. The first internet-based social-networking site was SixDegrees.com, launched by Andrew Weinreich in New York City. The first smartphone was the Simon Personal Communicator, developed by Frank Canova at IBM\u2019s lab in Boca Raton, Florida. <strong>No single geography\u2014not even Silicon Valley\u2014dominates invention. And yet all these breakthrough products have one thing in common. When it came to turning ideas into blockbuster products, the Valley was the place where the magic happened.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8c01\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d1\u660e\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u6210\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bb6\u55bb\u6237\u6653\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u7845\u8c37\u7684\u795e\u5947\u4e4b\u5904\u5c31\u662f\u867d\u6ca1\u6709\u4ea7\u751f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u660e\uff0c\u5374\u501f\u7740\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u660e\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u5bb6\u55bb\u6237\u6653\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u4eec\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u4e00\u6279\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u597d\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u8d70\u5411\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\uff1f\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u88ab\u53cd\u590d\u601d\u8003\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As part of his efforts, he launched a $5 million fund to safeguard the spirit of free enterprise by providing investment capital for entrepreneurs. But after five years in operation, J. H. Whitney &amp; Company had backed just eighteen ventures; his successes included an early maker of the building material perlite and Vacuum Foods, the producer of Minute Maid orange juice. In his first five years, moreover, Whitney outperformed the much safer S&amp;P 500 by a relatively modest margin. Indeed, on the risk-adjusted basis that financiers use to measure themselves, the fund could not justify its existence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1946\u5e74\u60e0\u7279\u5c3c\u7684\u4f1f\u5927\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u7406\u60f3\u30025\u5e74\u7ffb\u500d\u7b97\u4e0d\u4e0a\u5dee\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\uff0c\u540c\u671f\u662f45%\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u4ee5\u53ca75%\u7684\u6807\u666e\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In April 1946, the Rockefeller family launched a parallel effort to Whitney\u2019s, aiming to solve the generally acknowledged lack of finance for new firms. \u201cWhat we want to do is the opposite of the old system of holding back capital until a field or an idea is proved completely safe,\u201d declared Laurance Rockefeller, the prime mover, adding, \u201cWe are putting money into many underdeveloped areas.\u201d In 1961, Barron\u2019s reported that Rockefeller Brothers had returned $40 million on the $9 million invested during fifteen years in business.The S&amp;P 500 had shot up by 600 percent over this period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6d1b\u514b\u83f2\u52d2\u5bb6\u65cf\u4e5f\u662f\u4ece1946\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5c1d\u8bd5VC\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u4ece\u89e3\u51b3\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u6148\u5584\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u8d23\u4efb\u611f\u771f\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u5f53\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u65e0\u6bd4\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u4f46\u5c31\u8fd9\u70b9\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u54b1\u4eec\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u4f55\u6b62\u767e\u5e74\u300215\u5e74\u7684\u8bd5\u9a8c9m\u589e\u503c\u523040M\uff0c4.4x\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u653e\u4eca\u5929\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7b97\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u671f\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u56de\u62a5\u662f6x\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\u5c31\u6709\u70b9\u9eef\u7136\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To a modern venture capitalist, this pitch would have been instantly attractive: the founders came from a <strong>cutting-edge research lab<\/strong>, and they proposed to commercialize a technology that was already proven. But in the financial climate of the 1950s, even the most compelling scientists had a hard time raising money, and Doriot exploited this circumstance to the maximum, making Digital\u2019s founders an offer that by later standards would have counted as an insult. <strong>ARD would provide a $70,000 investment and a $30,000 loan in return for 70 percent of the company<\/strong>: it was a \u201ctake it or leave it\u201d offer. Lacking any alternative, the MIT professors accepted; nor did they protest when Doriot managed to push his stake up to 77 percent. Having seized so much of the equity, Doriot was in a position to profit massively when the professors succeeded. By the time ARD closed in 1972, it had reaped some $380 million from its bet on Digital\u2014or $2.3 billion in today\u2019s money. It was a bonanza that accounted for perhaps 80 percent of all the gains that ARD generated over a quarter of a century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ARD\u6295\u8d44\u7684DEC\u9879\u76ee\u662f\u5f53\u4ee3VC\u53f2\u4e0a\u5f53\u4e4b\u65e0\u6127\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u9876\u5c16\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u56e2\u961f\u548c\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u5316\u524d\u666f\u9762\u524d\uff0c7w\u7f8e\u5143\u6295\u8d44\/70%\u80a1\u4efd+3w\u7f8e\u5143\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7ed3\u6784\u4f30\u8ba1\u4f1a\u60ca\u6389\u4e0d\u5c11\u73b0\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u4e0b\u5df4\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u771f\u76f8\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u6700\u503c\u5f97\u79f0\u9053\u7684\u83ab\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5f53\u521d\u8fd910w\u7f8e\u5143\u6295\u8d44\u5728\u57fa\u91d1\u7ed3\u675f\u65f6\u56de\u62a5\u4e863.8\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c4000x\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u6362\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56de\u62a5\u662fARD\u6574\u4e2a25\u5e74\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5168\u90e8\u56de\u62a5\u768480%\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5e42\u5f8b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7684\u795e\u5947\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kleiner\u2019s wife, Rose, typed up the letter, dated <strong>June 14<\/strong>, 1957. Then she mailed it to the New York firm of Hayden, Stone. The broker who had served Kleiner\u2019s father was preparing to retire from Hayden, so he passed the letter on to a young MBA named <strong>Arthur Rock<\/strong>. And yet, as luck would have it, Rock was the perfect person to receive Kleiner\u2019s letter. Two years previously he had assembled a funding package for General Transistor, the first independent manufacturer of germanium semiconductors, which were to be used in hearing aids. On <strong>June 20<\/strong>, 1957, Rock placed a long-distance call to Kleiner, assuring him of his interest. The <strong>next day<\/strong> he wrote Kleiner a letter, urging him to keep his team together until they could meet face-to-face. The <strong>following week<\/strong> Rock flew to San Francisco, accompanied by a glad-handing Hayden partner named Alfred \u201cBud\u201d Coyle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5386\u53f2\u56fa\u7136\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5de7\u5408\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd8\u662f\u4e00\u904d\u904d\u9610\u660e\u201c\u673a\u4f1a\u603b\u662f\u7559\u7ed9\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u4eba\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u9053\u7406\u30021957\u5e74\u4ed9\u7ae5\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u795e\u5947\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u901a\u4fe1\u548c\u51fa\u884c\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0b\uff0c\u516c\u53f86\u670814\u53f7\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u8001\u5a46\u5199\u597d\u4e86BP\u5bc4\u51fa\u6765\u5230\u7ebd\u7ea6\uff0c\u6a2a\u8de8\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f30\u8ba1\u987e\u4e0a\u8981\u4e0d\u5c11\u65f6\u95f4\uff0cRock\u6536\u5230\u540e6\u670820\u53f7\u5c31\u56de\u4e86\u7535\u8bdd\uff0c\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u610f\u5411\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u4e60\u60ef\u653e\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c08\u7684\u4e0a\u795e\u5947\uff0c21\u65e5\u8fd8\u518d\u6b21\u56de\u4fe1\u7ed9\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u8981\u6c42\u89c1\u9762\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u5468\u4f30\u8ba16\u6708\u5e95\u5c31\u98de\u5230\u4e86\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e26\u4e0a\u4e86\u5408\u4f19\u4eba&#8230;\u867d\u7136\u6709Rock\u521a\u641e\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8c\u6781\u7ba1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u878d\u8d44\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u6b64\u795e\u5947\u7684\u6267\u884c\u529b\uff0c\u4e0d\u503c\u5f97\u6211\u4eec\u597d\u597d\u5b66\u4e60\u5417\uff1f\u534a\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u80fd\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u5982\u6b64\u8fc5\u901f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u6210\u5c31\u4e00\u70b9\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u96be\u3002\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5f53\u5e74FA\u7684\u699c\u6837\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4eca\u5929\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u7684\u699c\u6837\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5f53\u5e74\u673a\u4f1a\u904d\u5730\u5c1a\u4e14\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f55\u51b5\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5185\u5377\u7684\u4eca\u5929\u5462\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The researchers said they needed $750,000 to get their business started. Rock and Coyle countered that they should have at least $1 million. The Wall Streeters were projecting more confidence than was really justified: finding north of $1 million to launch an untested collective would not be straightforward.But the financiers\u2019 bravado served to win over doubters. With the promise of a seven-figure funding package, whatever resistance the researchers had been feeling began to melt away.There were no more reasons not to go forward. <strong>Bud Coyle pulled out ten crisp dollar bills and proposed that every man present should sign each one. The bills would be \u201ctheir contracts with each other,\u201d<\/strong> Coyle said. It was a premonition of the <strong>trust-based contracts<\/strong>\u2014seemingly informal, yet founded, literally, on money\u2014that were to mark the Valley in the years to come. After approaching <strong>thirty-five potential investors<\/strong>, Rock had failed to raise a single cent. Then Bud Coyle suggested Sherman Fairchild, a <strong>playboy <\/strong>with an inherited fortune who was a self-described \u201cputterer\u201d and science enthusiast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed9\u7ae5\u7684\u878d\u8d44\u6545\u4e8b\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u898175w\uff0cFA\u8bf4\u9700\u8981100\uff0c\u627e\u904d\u4e8635\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u878d\u52301\u5206\u94b1\u3002\u73b0\u5b9e\u867d\u7136\u9aa8\u611f\u3002\u4f46\u5f53\u521dFA\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u662f\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u548c\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u4e92\u76f8\u5ffd\u60a0\u3001\u4e92\u76f8\u76f8\u4fe1\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c10\u7f8e\u5143\u949e\u7968\u4e0a\u7b7e\u5b57\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e5f\u9887\u5177\u4eea\u5f0f\u611f\uff0c\u628a\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u56e2\u961f\u51dd\u805a\u4e86\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u82cd\u5929\u4e0d\u8d1f\u6709\u5fc3\u4eba\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u7ea8\u7ed4\u7684\u5bcc\u4e8c\u4ee3\u6210\u5c31\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u4e00\u4ee3\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Each of the eight founders was invited to put up $500 in return for 100 shares in the startup. The men scraped together the money, but not without difficulty; $500 was two or three weeks\u2019 salary, and Noyce had to call his parents to ask if his grandmother could lend him the funds.For its part, Hayden, Stone bought 225 shares at the same price as the founders, and 300 more shares were set aside in a kitty to help recruit senior managers; despite Noyce\u2019s charisma, Fairchild saw him as merely the interim chief. Each founder was therefore left with just under 10 percent of the company, with the prospect that this share would fall to 7.5 percent when new management materialized. Meanwhile, Fairchild\u2019s company, Fairchild Camera and Instrument, was stumping up just about all of the initial capital\u2014some $1.4 million, dwarfing the $5,125 put up by the scientists and Hayden. But because Fairchild\u2019s money came in the form of a loan rather than equity, the founders\u2019 ownership was not being diluted. The Fairchild loan was actually not really a loan: it came bundled with an <strong>option to purchase all of the new company\u2019s stock for $3 million<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed9\u7ae5\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u8fd8\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\uff0c\u878d\u8d44\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u4e86140w\uff0c\u9644\u5e26300w\u6536\u8d2d\u5168\u90e8\u80a1\u4efd\u7684\u671f\u6743\u3002\u80a1\u4efd\u4e0a1325\u80a1\uff0c\u6bcf\u80a15\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c8\u4e2a\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u5408\u8ba1\u6301\u80a160%\uff0c\u7ed9\u65b0\u4eba\u9884\u7559\u7684\u671f\u6743\u5927\u7ea623%\uff0cFA\u6309\u7167\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u4ef7\u683c\u8ba4\u8d2d\u4e8617%\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u521b\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u79cd\u5b50\u8f6e\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u4f30\u503c\u624d5000\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c300w\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6536\u8d2d\u4ef7\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u79cd\u5b50\u8f6e\u4f30\u503c\u7684600x\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56e2\u961f\u4ee5\u53ca\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u7ed9\u7684\u6536\u8d2d\u4ef7\u4e0d\u4f4e\u7684\uff0c\u5f88\u5408\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 1959 Fairchild took in orders worth some $6.5 million, thirteen times more than the previous year. The young company\u2019s after-tax earnings already came to about $2 million, and given its huge operating margins, it had every reason to expect windfall profits as its sales volumes ramped up.The news was so excellent, in fact, that Fairchild Camera and Instrument decided to exercise its option, paying the agreed $3 million for all of Fairchild Semiconductor\u2019s stock. For Noyce and his co-founders, it was a bittersweet moment. The Traitorous Eight each received $300,000, fully <strong>six hundred times<\/strong> what they had invested two years previously; the bonanza amounted to around <strong>thirty years\u2019 salary<\/strong>. But at the same time, Fairchild Camera was doing even better: it was paying a price-earnings multiple of about 1.5 for a spectacular growth firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u66f4\u4e3a\u795e\u5947\u7684\u662f2\u5e74\u540e\u4ed9\u7ae5\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u5c31\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86200w\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7a0e\u524d\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u4ec5\u5229\u6da6\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u65f6\u516c\u53f8\u4ef7\u503c\u7684400x\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u867d\u7136300w\u7684\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u9000\u51fa\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u770b\u4f3c\u60ca\u4eba\u7684600x\u56de\u62a5\/2\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709\u70b9\u9057\u61be\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\u5bf9\u5f53\u521d\u7684\u5404\u65b9\u90fd\u662f\u591a\u8d62\u5c40\u9762\u4e86\uff0c\u66f4\u4e3a\u96be\u5f97\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u795e\u5947\u5730\u628a\u8d44\u6e90\u805a\u5230\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u56e2\u961f\u3001FA\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u65b0\u521b\u9020\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What he had done, however, was to demonstrate that <strong>liberation capital<\/strong> was about much more than keeping a team together in the place where its members happened to own houses. <strong>Liberation capital<\/strong> was about <strong>unlocking human talent<\/strong>. It was about <strong>sharpening incentives<\/strong>. It was about <strong>forging a new kind of applied science and a new commercial culture<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u81ea\u7531\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u795e\u5947\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u795e\u5947\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u8ba9\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5929\u624d\u5145\u5206\u5927\u4f1a\uff0c\u8ba9\u5404\u65b9\u5f97\u5230\u5145\u5206\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6587\u5316\u3002\u592a\u6709\u9053\u7406\u4e86\u3002\u5b57\u91cc\u884c\u95f4\u90fd\u80fd\u8bfb\u51fa\u4f5c\u8005\u5c31\u6b64\u4f1f\u5927\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u81f3\u9ad8\u8d5e\u8a89\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6b63\u6279\u8bc4\u201c\u8d44\u672c\u65e0\u5e8f\u6269\u5f20\u201d\u8fd9\u79cd\u72d7\u5c41\u5b98\u8bdd\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5f53\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u514d\u550f\u5618\u3002\u591a\u4e48\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u6389\u4e0b\u5df4\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u554a\uff0c\u4e00\u8fb9\u4ece\u4e8b\u5b9e\u548c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u603b\u7ed3\u51fa\u6765\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u4f1f\u5927\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u81ea\u7531\u6269\u5f20\uff1b\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u8fb9\u6b63\u5728\u65e0\u77e5\u5730\u6279\u5224\u8fd9\u79cd\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u76f8\u4fe1\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u65f6\u4ee3\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u7ed9\u51fa\u6b63\u786e\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"2-sbic-davis-rock\">2 SBIC\uff0cDavis &amp; Rock<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If liberation capital launched the Traitorous Eight and Fairchild Semiconductor, the following decade brought two further advances that forged the <strong>modern venture-capital profession.<\/strong> First, technology investors embraced the idea of an <strong>equity-only, time-limited fund<\/strong>, rejecting various rival formats. Second, technology investors devised a new kind of risk management, suited to the peculiarities of venture portfolios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most SBICs fared worse than that. More even than the restrictions on how they invested their capital, their fatal flaw turned out to be the apparently generous terms on which they raised it. A large loan from the government sounded attractive, but the loan had to be serviced. Even with a subsidized 5 percent interest rate, this obligation had a crippling consequence: it forced SBICs to invest in startups that paid dividends. By 1966, only 3.5 percent of SBIC portfolio companies were engaged in applied science, undermining the original purpose of the SBIC program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SBIC\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u8bbe\u7acb\u7684\u521d\u8877\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u4e8b\u4e0e\u613f\u8fdd\u7684\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5bfc\u81f4\u7b26\u5408SBIC\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u652f\u4ed8\u80a1\u606f\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u7b80\u76f4\u5c31\u662f\u5f00\u73a9\u7b11\u3002\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u573a\u666f\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u4ee5\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8fd4\u6295\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u6b64\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u9006\u5411\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4e8b\u4e0e\u613f\u8fdd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In October 10, 1961, Davis &amp; Rock filed its Certificate of Partnership. The two general partners\u2014one shy and laconic, the other sunny and garrulous\u2014rented an anonymous office on the sixteenth floor of the grand, brick-fronted Russ Building on San Francisco\u2019s Montgomery Street. On a door at the end of a long corridor, a small sign said only \u201c1635.\u201d <strong>Backing low-profile startups would be a low-profile activity.<\/strong>Rock and his partner articulated an approach to risk management that would resonate with future venture capitalists: they promised to <strong>make concentrated bets<\/strong> on a <strong>dozen<\/strong> or so companies. Although this would entail obvious perils, these would be tolerable for two reasons. First, by buying just <strong>under half of a firm\u2019s equity<\/strong>, the Davis &amp; Rock partnership would get a <strong>seat on the board<\/strong> and a say in its strategy: in the absence of diversification, a venture capitalist could manage his risk by <strong>exercising a measure of control<\/strong> over his assets. Second, Davis and Rock insisted that they would invest only in ambitious, high-growth companies\u2014ones whose value might jump<strong> at least tenfold in five to seven years<\/strong>. Venture investing was necessarily speculative, he explained, and most startups would fail; therefore, the winners would have to <strong>win big enough to make a success of the portfolio<\/strong>.\u201cTrying to <strong>play it safe in small companies is, to my mind, self-defeating<\/strong>,\u201d Davis insisted.Although they did not use the term, Davis and Rock were acknowledging the logic of the power law. The best way to manage risk was to <strong>embrace it fearlessly<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1961\u5e74Arther Rock\u7684VC\u57fa\u91d1\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff1a\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e92\u8865\u7684\u5408\u4f19\u4eba\u62c5\u4efbGP\uff0c\u65e7\u91d1\u5c7116\u697c\u4f4e\u8c03\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fdd\u6301\u4f4e\u8c03\u5730\u6295\u8d44\u4f4e\u8c03\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u9996\u521b\u63a7\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e0b\u6ce8\u523012\u4e2a\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6301\u80a1\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0d\u8fc7\u534a\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u6709\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3001\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff1b\u6295\u8d44\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u9884\u671f5-7\u5e74\u80fd\u83b7\u522910\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6355\u9cb8\u7c7b\u578b\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u80dc\u5c31\u5927\u80dc\u3002\u4e0d\u505a\u770b\u4f3c\u6709\u5b89\u5168\u6027\u7684\u5c0f\u91cf\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u8fd9\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u81ea\u6211\u6bc1\u706d\u3002\u63a7\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6700\u597d\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u662f\u52c7\u6562\u5730\u62e5\u62b1\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u4ece\u56de\u62a5\u770b\u5192\u9669\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u503c\u5f97\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u601d\u8def\u548c\u505a\u6cd5\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u6536\u83b7\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0a\u5b9e\u9645\u8ff7\u832b\u4e86\u597d\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u4eca\u8bfb\u8d77\u6765\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u8305\u585e\u987f\u5f00\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the early 1960s, when the partners were laying out this vision, academia was <strong>turning finance into a quantitative science<\/strong>. But the way Davis and Rock saw things, the art of venture investing was <strong>necessarily subjective<\/strong>. Judgments about technology startups would \u201ccome from either \u2018<strong>the seat of the pants<\/strong>\u2019 or the \u2018<strong>top of the hat<\/strong>,\u2019\u201d as Rock once wrote to Davis. Quantitative investment metrics such as the <strong>price-earnings ratio would be irrelevant,<\/strong> because the most promising ventures were likely to have no earnings whatever at the point when they sought capital. Likewise, they would <strong>lack the physical assets<\/strong>\u2014the buildings, machines, inventory, and vehicles\u2014that constituted \u201cbook value\u201d at mature companies: thus another standard metric used in public markets would be meaningless. In sum, venture capitalists would have to bet on startups without the reassuring yardsticks used by other financiers. They would have no choice but to <strong>practice finance without finance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>60\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u80cc\u666f\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5c4a\u6b63\u5f80\u91cf\u5316\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u800c\u65e9\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u4e3b\u89c2\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u827a\u672f\uff0c\u65e2\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba1\u7b97P\/E\u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u6570\u636e\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u6709\u578b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684P\/B\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5984\u56fe\u4f7f\u7528\u8d22\u52a1\u6307\u6807\u8861\u91cf\u65e9\u671f\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u662f\u5f92\u52b3\u7684\u3002\u6240\u4ee5VC\u53ea\u80fd\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having discarded conventional investment metrics, the partners needed something else to go by. They found it in <strong>judgments about people<\/strong>, never mind that these could sound like a soft basis on which to commit capital. The central principle of the venture business, Davis once explained boldly, could be summed up in four words: \u201c<strong>Back the Right People<\/strong>.\u201d For his part, Rock made a habit of <strong>skipping over the financial projections <\/strong>in business plans and flipping to the back, where the<strong> founders\u2019 r\u00e9sum\u00e9s<\/strong> were presented. \u201cThe <strong>single most important factor<\/strong> in the long run for any company is, of course, <strong>management<\/strong>,\u201d Rock told the Harvard Business School Club of San Francisco in 1962. \u201cHowever, I believe that in the applied science industry this is especially true.\u201d <strong>The only asset of tech startups, and the only possible reason to invest in them, was human talent<\/strong>, or what Rock liked to call \u201c<strong>intellectual book value.<\/strong>\u201d \u201cIf you are buying intellectual book value, then you\u2019d better place a great deal of emphasis on the people who you hope will capitalize on their intellect,\u201d Rock lectured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e2\u961f\u662f\u65e9\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u552f\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0cDavis\u548cRock\u5c45\u7136\u572860\u5e74\u4ee3\u5c31\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u60c5\u60f3\u900f\u4e86\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u548c\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u521b\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u8d44\u4ea7\u2014\u2014\u56e2\u961f\u667a\u529b\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662fVC\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rock in particular believed that his intuitions about people gave him an edge as an investor. His shy outsider\u2019s temperament made him an<strong> expert listener<\/strong>, and he would meet promising company founders <strong>multiple times<\/strong> before committing to back them. His method was to <strong>pose open-ended questions<\/strong>\u2014Whom did they admire? What mistakes had they learned from?\u2014and then wait patiently for the entrepreneurs to fill the vacuum created by his silence. Self-contradiction, wishful thinking, a fondness for ingratiation at the expense of honesty: these were the clues that Rock should pass on an investment. <strong>Intelligent consistency<\/strong>, <strong>gritty realism<\/strong>, <strong>fiery determination<\/strong>: these were the signs that he should seize the opportunity. I believe so strongly in people that I think talking to the individual is much more important than finding out too much about what they want to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rock\u7edd\u5bf9\u662f\u4e2a\u9605\u4eba\u7684\u9ad8\u624b\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6b63\u597d\u53c8\u662f\u65e9\u671fVC\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u80fd\u529b\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4f1a\u503e\u542c\uff0c\u53cd\u590d\u548c\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5f00\u653e\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u63a2\u8ba8\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u7684\u4e2a\u6027\uff0c\u5bfb\u627e\u7a00\u7f3a\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u4fdd\u6301\u601d\u8def\u4e00\u81f4\u3001\u52a1\u5b9e\u3001\u6709\u5b9a\u529b\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On June 30, 1968, Davis and Rock wound up their partnership. Thanks overwhelmingly to SDS, but also to a <strong>defense contractor<\/strong> called Teledyne, their initial fund of $3.4 million was now worth almost $77 million, an extraordinary <strong>return of 22.6x<\/strong>; it was a performance that easily eclipsed Warren Buffett in this period, as well as that of the inventor of the \u201chedged fund,\u201d Alfred Winslow Jones. Adding together their share of the fund\u2019s appreciation plus the gain on their <strong>personal $100,000 stakes,<\/strong> each partner walked off with <strong>almost $10 million<\/strong>\u2014or $74 million in today\u2019s money. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Davis &amp; 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