\u6ca1\u60f3\u5230\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u9664\u4e86\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5960\u57fa\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u9ad8\u624b\uff0c\u662f\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u9f3b\u7956\u4e86\u3002\u9ad8\u624b\u7684\u201c\u9053\u201d\u57fa\u672c\u662f\u76f8\u901a\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u503c\u5f97\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u867d\u7136\u8bfb\u8d77\u6765\u5341\u5206\u751f\u6da9\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd8\u662f\u5341\u5206\u63a8\u8350\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u96be\u5f97\u7684\u4f73\u4f5c\u4e86\u3002\u8bfb\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u5398\u6e05\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u7684\u8bef\u4f1a\u3002\u6309\u60ef\u4f8b\u505a\u4e9b\u6458\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u6b21\u7684\u6458\u8981\u505a\u7684\u7834\u8d39\u5468\u6298\uff0c\u4e00\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u5728\u6628\u5929\u98de\u673a\u665a\u70b9\u7684\u957f\u6c99\u5019\u673a\u5ba4\u91cc\u5199\u7684\uff0c\u957f\u6c99\u5230\u5b81\u6ce2\u7684\u98de\u673a\u4e0a\u53c8\u8865\u5145\u4e86\u5927\u534a\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u4ece\u821f\u5c71\u5230\u4e0a\u6d77\u7684\u5927\u5df4\u4e0a\u6536\u5c3e\uff0c\u4e5f\u804a\u505a\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This aspect of Keynes \u2013 the shrewd investor, the canny player of financial markets \u2013 is rather unexpected in light of the man\u2019s early life and beliefs. Keynes was an aesthete, his first allegiance to philosophy and the art of living well.<\/p>
money makes a good servant but a bad master \u2013 in Keynes\u2019 formulation, money\u2019s merit lay solely in its ability to secure and maintain the conditions allowing one to \u201clive wisely and agreeably and well.\u201d Like economics itself, money was a mere expedient, nothing other than \u201ca means to the enjoyment and realities of life\u201d, and moneymaking little more than an \u201camusement.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6295\u8d44\u9996\u5148\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2a\u4eba\u54f2\u5b66\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u94b1\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff1a\u91d1\u94b1\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u4f63\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u662f\u4e2a\u574f\u4e3b\u4eba\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u662f\u7528\u5b83\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u597d\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u806a\u660e\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u662f\u597d\u7684\u4f63\u4eba\uff1b\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4ee5\u91d1\u94b1\u4e3a\u8ffd\u9010\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u574f\u7684\u4e3b\u4eba\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Emboldened by Adam Smith\u2019s paradoxical doctrine that selfish private actions would be transmuted into public virtues, and later by Darwin\u2019s observations on natural selection and survival of the fittest, fin de si\u00e8cle British society embraced free trade and a substantially laissez-faire government. The spirit of competition and endeavor pervaded Queen Victoria\u2019s nation.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4e9a\u5f53\u65af\u5bc6\u7684\u5206\u5de5\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u81ea\u79c1\u8f6c\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u7f8e\u5fb7\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u8fbe\u5c14\u6587\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u9002\u8005\u751f\u5b58\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u76f8\u5e94\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u7ade\u4e89\u548c\u52aa\u529b\u6210\u4e3a\u7ef4\u591a\u5229\u4e9a\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6f6e\u6d41\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u6240\u8c13\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u524d\u591c\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u6f6e\u6d41\u4e86\u3002\u53ef\u60dc\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6f6e\u6d41\u5728\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u4f9d\u7136\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u88ab\u8ba4\u53ef\uff0c\u4f46\u597d\u5904\u662f\u5927\u4f17\u5df2\u7ecf\u5145\u5206\u8ba4\u53ef\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2a\u96be\u5f97\u7684\u524d\u591c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a conclusion of frightening prescience, Keynes declared that the aggressive reparations terms would return to haunt the Continent:<\/span> If we aim deliberately at the impoverishment of Central Europe, vengeance, I dare predict, will not limp. Nothing can then delay for very long that final civil war between the forces of reaction and the despairing convulsions of revolution, before which the horrors of the late German war will fade into nothing, and which will destroy, whoever is victor, the civilization and the progress of our generation.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u5bf9\u4e8c\u6218\u7684\u9884\u8a00\uff0c\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u654f\u9510\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u6218\u7684\u5206\u8d43\u4e0d\u5747\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u540e\u9057\u75c7\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u79e9\u5e8f\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u8ba1\u5212\u7b49\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u7f18\u7531\u2014\u2014\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u5c31\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u4e86\uff0c\u7eaf\u5c5e\u6570\u5b57\u6e38\u620f\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting his money where his mouth was, Keynes decided to back the pessimistic views expressed in Economic Consequences by speculating heavily on the foreign exchange market, taking short positions on key Continental currencies and long positions on the U.S. dollar.\u201d<\/p>
Additionally, speculation offered the pleasing prospect of earning considerable amounts of money relatively painlessly. Like his contemporary Winston Churchill, much of Keynes\u2019 business was transacted while lounging in his bed. As one of his biographers noted: Some of this financial decision-making was carried out while he was still in bed in the morning; reports would come to him by phone from his brokers, and he would read the newspapers and make his decisions.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u4e8c\u6218\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u5916\u6c47\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff1a\u5356\u51fa\u6b27\u5143\u3001\u4e70\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5927\u83b7\u5168\u80dc\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u51b3\u65ad\u662f\u5728\u65e9\u4e0a\u7684\u5e8a\u4e0a\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u79cd\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keynes despised the pursuit of wealth. In a later paper he would invoke a glowing future where: The love of money as a possession\u2026 will be recognized for what it is, a somewhat disgusting morbidity, one of those semi-criminal, semi-pathological propensities which one hands over with a shudder to the specialists in mental disease.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u5355\u7eaf\u8ffd\u6c42\u94b1\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u75c5\u6001\u7684\u3002\u6210\u4e3a\u91d1\u94b1\u7684\u5974\u96b6\u662f\u4e0d\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u53ef\u60dc\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4e0d\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
His first recorded investment was in 1905, at twenty-two years of age, when he bought shares in an insurance company and later an engineering firm using his \u201cspecial fund\u201d of birthday money and cash from academic prizes. Keynes\u2019 investments until 1919 were relatively sporadic, but his portfolio \u2013 principally in the form of ordinary shares \u2013 enjoyed a steady increase in value, and by the end of 1918 he owned securities worth \u00a39,428, around $625,000 in today\u2019s money.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c\u4e00\u7b14\u6295\u8d4422\u5c81\u7684\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7528\u538b\u5c81\u94b1\u548c\u5956\u91d1\u4e70\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u7a0b\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u4efd\u300213\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed638\u5c81\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u8fd9\u7b14\u6295\u8d44\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u4e00\u7b14\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4eca\u5929500\u4e07\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e1a\u7ee9\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5176\u4e2d\u8fd8\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7684\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Smith found that, overwhelmingly, ordinary shares outperformed bonds not only in inflationary periods but also in times of falling prices. Smith\u2019s simple but profound observation \u2013 that equities were, in effect, \u201ccompound interest machines,\u201d offering not just dividends but capital growth through reinvestment of undistributed earnings \u2013 was a key factor in kick-starting the \u201ccult of the common stock\u201d in the mid-1920s.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
Smith\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u80a1\u7968\u662f\u53f0\u590d\u5229\u673a\u5668\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If everyone is thinking alike then somebody isn\u2019t thinking. \u2014General George S. Patton <\/p>
Paradoxically, group intelligence will only manifest when participants act as if they are not part of a group.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6709\u4eba\u5077\u61d2\u4e86\u3002\u601d\u7ef4\u4e0a\u7684\u61d2\u60f0\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u8be1\u5f02\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u201c\u5916\u4eba\u201d\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u53d1\u6325\u96c6\u4f53\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u76f2\u4ece\u548c\u4ece\u4f17\u5c31\u662f\u5e38\u6001\u3002\u96c6\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u5c31\u53ea\u80fd\u662f\u96c6\u4f53\u61d2\u60f0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere is also, as Keynes observed, \u201ca peculiar zest in making money quickly.\u201d Emulation and envy are powerful stimulants, and the desire to keep up with the Joneses often fuels herd behavior. The economist Charles Kindleberger wryly noted that \u201cthere is nothing so disturbing to one\u2019s well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich,\u201d and the prospect of easy money on the stock exchange inevitably encourages others to venture their hand. Indeed, during booms the more cautious among the investment community are often castigated for their lack of entrepreneurial zeal.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u7fa1\u6155\u548c\u5ac9\u5992\u662f\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u8d5a\u94b1\u6548\u5e94\u5c31\u5341\u5206\u5173\u952e\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u6700\u770b\u4e0d\u60ef\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u8eab\u8fb9\u7684\u4eba\u7a81\u7136\u66b4\u5bcc\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u800c\u6562\u4e8e\u53bb\u5192\u9669\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab\u65f6\u671f\u5927\u5bb6\u8702\u62e5\u800c\u5165\u4e0d\u987e\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7fa4\u60c5\u6fc0\u6124\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u65e0\u9700\u7406\u667a\u3001\u52c7\u6c14\u548c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5f53\u4e0b\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u51b7\u9759\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u662f\u9700\u8981\u8db3\u591f\u7406\u6027\u548c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In skating over thin ice, our safety is in our speed. \u2014Ralph Waldo Emerson, Prudence<\/p>
Speculators walk a tightrope between staying in the market long enough to optimize trading gains, but not so long that the individual is caught in a bearish lurch downward. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6295\u673a\u662f\u51b0\u4e0a\u8d77\u821e\uff0c\u73a9\u7684\u662f\u901f\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u5403\u5230\u6700\u80a5\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u80fd\u8eb2\u5f00\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keynes\u2019 principal stock market trading strategy in the 1920s \u2013 which he christened \u201ccredit cycle investing\u201d \u2013 faithfully reflected the market-timing approach of the typical speculator. Credit cycling was an application of the oldest stock market maxim in the book: buy low and sell high. As Keynes explained many years later, credit cycling in respect of common stocks \u201cmeans in practice selling market leaders on a falling market and buying them on a rising one.\u201d It was a \u201ctop-down\u201d approach to stock market investment, involving \u201ca general systematic movement out of and into ordinary shares as a whole at different phases of the trade cycle.\u201d This approach \u2013 sometimes dignified with the slightly more scientific-sounding appellations of \u201cmomentum investing\u201d or \u201canticipatory trading\u201d \u2013 relies on the speculator\u2019s ability to apprehend turns in the market and time trades accordingly. For the \u201ccredit cycler,\u201d price momentum is the fundamental trading driver, rather than any assessment of the inherent value of a stock relative to its price.<\/p>
When stock prices are rising, it\u2019s called \u201cmomentum investing\u201d; when they are falling, it\u2019s called \u201cpanic.\u201d \u2014Paul Krugman, The New York Times<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
20\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7528\u4fe1\u8d37\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u6765\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u6295\u8d44\u4e86\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u8d8b\u52bf\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u3002\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u66fc\u7684\u53d6\u7b11\u6beb\u4e0d\u5938\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In contrast to his American confrere, Keynes had substantially reduced his exposure to the stock market prior to the Great Crash of 1929. This move was not, however, attributable to any superior foresight on Keynes\u2019 account. Rather, his \u201cterrifying adventures\u201d on the speculative markets \u2013 this time, the commodities market \u2013 had once again brought him undone. In 1928, after several years of profitable trading, Keynes\u2019 positions in the rubber, corn, cotton, and tin markets turned against him, and he was obliged to liquidate the bulk of his equities to cover these losses. <\/p>
In aggregate, Keynes\u2019 net worth declined by more than 80 percent over this period \u2013 from \u00a344,000 at the start of 1928 to less than \u00a38,000 two years later \u2013 and, for the second time in his life, he found himself poised on the precipice of financial ruin.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
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But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.<\/p>
Keynes abhorred the easy complacency of classical hardliners, and their serene assurances to the masses that society would eventually emerge from the Great Slump. In a stark rejoinder to the liquidationists selling their scorched earth policies, he reminded them that \u201cin the long run we are all dead.\u201d In the time of its greatest crisis, capitalism simply did not have the luxury of waiting for the economy to heal itself.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u957f\u671f\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u6b7b\u53bb\uff0c\u662f\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u63f6\u63c4\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u628a\u957f\u671f\u8bf4\u7684\u592a\u8f7b\u677e\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u5927\u8427\u6761\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u81ea\u6108\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u7b49\u4e0d\u8d77\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7b49\u5f85\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u4f1a\u66f4\u4e3a\u6c89\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He seemed to regard communism as more Groucho Marx than Karl Marx, dismissing it as \u201ccomplicated hocus-pocus\u201d and remarking to his students that he had read Das Kapital \u201cas if it were a detective story, trying to find some clue to an idea in it and never succeeding.\u201d Similarly, he had no time for fascism as a political solution \u2013 Keynes\u2019 call to action, he informed the British Fascist leader Oswald Mosley, \u201cwas to save the country from [you], not to embrace [you].\u201d In Keynes\u2019 opinion, the most serious threat to capitalism came not from the aspiring revolutionaries peddling their \u201cquack remedies,\u201d but rather from those who most strenuously proclaimed their fealty to the existing order.\u201d<\/p>
All successful revolutions are the kicking in of a rotten door. \u2014John Kenneth Galbraith, The Age of Uncertainty\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u5927\u8427\u6761\u65f6\u671f\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u5236\u5ea6\u6700\u4e3a\u8d28\u7591\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u8fd9\u79cd\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u7684\u82b1\u62db\u4f9d\u7136\u9003\u4e0d\u8fc7\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u6cd5\u773c\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u96be\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u5f53\u4e0b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5a01\u80c1\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u9769\u547d\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0d\u601d\u8fdb\u53d6\u7684\u56e0\u5faa\u5b88\u65e7\u8005\u3002\u56de\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u770b\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bba\u65ad\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u548c\u6240\u8c13\u9769\u547d\u4e4b\u4e0b\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u53ea\u6709\u6df7\u4e71\u548c\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u8fd8\u662f\u6587\u9769\uff0c\u5747\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u53ea\u6709\u56de\u5230\u811a\u8e0f\u5b9e\u5730\u7684\u5f53\u4e0b\uff0c\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u56fd\u5316\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u8272\u7b49\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u653e\u773c\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u552f\u6709\u707e\u96be\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5fc5\u5c06\u4f1a\u56de\u5230\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u7acb\u8db3\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u4e16\u4e0a\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e4b\u8bf4\uff0c\u9a6c\u6c0f\u5212\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u768438\u7ebf\u7ec8\u5c06\u4f1a\u88ab\u4e22\u8fdb\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u5783\u573e\u6876\uff0c\u671f\u5f85\u8fd9\u4e00\u5929\u65e9\u65e5\u5230\u6765\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6240\u6709\u9769\u547d\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u5176\u9769\u547d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u4f1f\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u6e90\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e2a\u8150\u70c2\u7684\u95e8\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u5c31\u662f\u80fd\u5728\u5408\u9002\u7684\u65f6\u673a\u63a8\u5f00\u8fd9\u6247\u5e76\u4e0d\u6c89\u91cd\u7684\u95e8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A central conclusion in The General Theory \u2013 informed by Keynes\u2019 own experience as a speculator \u2013 was that the psychology of uncertainty impaired the efficient operation of the market. The existence of uncertainty would periodically result in bouts of underinvestment and oversaving, leading in turn to underutilization of an economy\u2019s resources. The Keynesian solution to this state of affairs was, in essence, to boost an economy\u2019s aggregate expenditure by increasing government spending to offset lower business and consumer activity.<\/p>
Rather than abstracting money and financial markets from economic theory, Keynes saw them as a driving force. He realized that money was far more than a medium of exchange or the insubstantial shadow of real economy activities \u2013 it was \u201cabove all, a subtle device for linking the present to the future.\u201d Keynes noted that: our desire to hold Money as a store of wealth is a barometer of the degree of our distrust of our own calculations and conventions concerning the future. The possession of actual money lulls our disquietude; and the premium which we require to make us part with money is the measure of the degree of our disquietude.<\/p>
\u201cLiquidity preference\u201d \u2013 the desire to hold cash or near-cash \u2013 is a gauge of individuals\u2019 wariness about the future. When money moves from \u201cindustrial circulation\u201d to \u201cfinancial circulation\u201d \u2013 when, rather than being invested in enterprise, savings instead lie fallow \u2013 slumps can occur. The flow of money can be thought of as an economy\u2019s metabolism, and when individuals hoard their savings because of fears for the future, or when investors lack confidence to embark on new projects, the daisy chain of prosperity breaks and \u201centerprise will fade and die.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u62c5\u5fc3\u635f\u5bb3\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u548c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u901a\u8bba\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u4fee\u590d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5c31\u6781\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8d22\u653f\u624b\u6bb5\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\u6765\u5bf9\u51b2\u6c11\u95f4\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u50a8\u5b58\u610f\u613f\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6307\u9488\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u5f53\u8d44\u91d1\u4ece\u5de5\u4e1a\u6d41\u5411\u91d1\u878d\uff0c\u4ece\u5b9e\u4f53\u6d41\u51fa\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u8131\u5b9e\u5411\u865a\u65f6\u2014\u2014\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u6ed1\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u4e48\u6765\u770b\uff0c2015\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u53cd\u5bf9\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7a7a\u8f6c\u3001\u8131\u5b9e\u5411\u865a\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u800c\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5e94\u8be5\u66f4\u4e3a\u6839\u672c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6cbb\u7406\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u8868\u8c61vs\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u53ef\u60dc\u6211\u4eec\u7ad9\u9519\u4e86\u5730\u65b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.<\/p>
Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u771f\u7406\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5341\u5206\u75af\u72c2\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u88ab\u6fc0\u70c8\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u88ab\u81ea\u6211\u8bc1\u660e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c4\u5f8b\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u597d\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u4e5f\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u5929\u65b9\u591c\u8c2d\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5927\u5bb6\u666e\u904d\u4e0d\u770b\u597d\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u9e23\u60ca\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9053\u7406\u503c\u5f97\u6302\u5728\u5899\u4e0a\uff0c\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u660e\u661f\u9879\u76ee\u3001\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6f5c\u529b\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u9519\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This uncertainty gap is a blank canvas on which the investor projects his or her most fervent hopes or darkest fears. \u201cAnimal spirits\u201d \u2013 the \u201cspontaneous urge to action rather than inaction,\u201d as Keynes defined them \u2013 embolden individuals and allow them to bridge the uncertainty gap inherent in any investment decision. The investor, Keynes concluded, is not the perfectly knowledgeable calculating machine of orthodox theory. Despite the assertions of efficient markets proponents, stock market behavior is not \u2013 cannot be \u2013 governed by purely rational factors. Investor psychology plays an integral role in the decision to buy, sell, or hold a stock.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u52a8\u7269\u7cbe\u795e\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u6765\u8de8\u8d8a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u9e3f\u6c9f\u7684\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u56e0\u6b64\u624d\u771f\u6b63\u5c06\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d8\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6838\u5fc3\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u6562\u4e8e\u5192\u9669\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u4e0d\u6562\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u6562\u4e8e\u524d\u884c\uff0c\u5c06\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u8f6c\u4e3a\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Einstein\u2019s bizarre theories of relativity were mirrored in the Keynesian universe, where money \u2013 like time \u2013 was sometimes more than a mere inert cipher. Keynes argued, however, that economics seemed to depart from the comforting resemblance to science in at least one key respect. In the discipline of economics, he asserted, \u201cthe atomic hypothesis that has worked so splendidly in physics breaks down,\u201d and consequently:<\/p>
We are faced at every turn with the problems of organic unity, of discreteness, of discontinuity \u2013 the whole is not equal to the sum of the parts, comparisons of quantity fail us, small changes produce large effects, the assumptions of a uniform and homogeneous continuum are not satisfied.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bba\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u542f\u793a\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u5c31\u50cf\u65f6\u95f4\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keynes\u2019 realization that there was no method to the market\u2019s madness prompted a radical change in his investment approach. Following the Great Crash, he completely inverted his investment principles, becoming an investor rather than a speculator \u2013 one who focuses on likely future performance rather than past trends, expected yield rather than disposal price, particular stocks rather than the broader index, and relying on his own judgment rather than that of the market. Simply stated, Keynes switched from market timer to value investor, seeking to profit from swings in the market rather than participating in them.<\/p>
price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal.<\/p>
true investment, which involves \u201cforecasting the prospective yield of assets over their whole life.\u201d The investor focuses on the income that a security is expected to produce, not the possible sale price of that security in the near term. Or, to employ Keynes\u2019 terminology, the true investor is concerned more with \u201cultimate values\u201d than \u201cexchange values.\u201d<\/p>
Keynes had again become \u201chorribly prosperous\u201d by the time The General Theory was published. In the years between the Wall Street Crash and the end of 1936, Keynes multiplied his wealth more than sixtyfold, parlaying net assets of just under \u00a38,000 at the end of 1929 to more than \u00a3500,000 only six years later.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u8d8b\u52bf\/\u6280\u672f\u6d3e\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u6d3e\uff0c\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u80a1\u4ef7\uff0c\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u4e2a\u80a1\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u66f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e2a\u4eba\u5224\u65ad\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4ece\u53c2\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u6210\u957f\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u6765\u627e\u4e70\u5356\u65f6\u70b9\u3002\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u4e5f\u8ba9\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u77ed\u77ed\u516b\u5e74\u6da8\u4e8616\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Observing correctly that the market was frequently efficient, [many academics and investment professionals] went on to conclude incorrectly that it was always efficient. The difference between these propositions is night and day. Value investors, by definition, do not accept the strong form of the efficient markets theory. There are times when the quoted price of a security departs from its underlying value, these investors believe, and it is on these occasions that the intelligent investor seeks to exploit the mispricing that results.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u5e38\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684 vs \u5e02\u573a\u603b\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u662f\u5341\u4e07\u516b\u5343\u91cc\uff0c\u5982\u540c\u65e5\u591c\u3002\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u6548\u5047\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ussher deduced the exact date of Creation. The world, he declared, saw its first sunrise on Sunday, October 23, 4004 BC. Working from this absolute base, he could then calculate other key dates from Genesis \u2013 Adam and Eve, for example, were ejected from Paradise on Monday, November 10, 4004 BC, and Noah\u2019s Ark finally bumped into Mount Ararat on May 5, 2348 BC, a Wednesday.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u7b97\u51fa\u4e86\u521b\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u2014\u2014\u516c\u5143\u524d4004\u5e7411\u670810\u65e5\uff0c\u9ad8\u624b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Life is the art of drawing sufficient conclusions from insufficient premises. \u2014Samuel Butler, The Note-Books of Samuel Butler\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Value investing is, in essence, a \u201cglass half-empty\u201d rather than \u201cglass half-full\u201d approach \u2013 it focuses on downside risks rather than those on the upside. By selecting only those stocks that appear to be priced at a substantial discount to intrinsic worth, the investor seeks to ensure that there is a \u201cfloor\u201d of underlying value that should support pricing over the longer term. The speculator, in contrast, is principally concerned not with the underlying earnings of a business but rather whether the stock can be offloaded at a higher price. As Fred Schwed observed: Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u534a\u7a7a\u5f62\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u534a\u6ee1\u5fc3\u6001\u2014\u2014\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e86\u4fd7\u8bdd\u7684\u201c\u6ee1\u74f6\u4e0d\u54cd\u3001\u534a\u74f6\u6643\u8361\u201d\u4e00\u8bf4\u2014\u2014\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u4e0b\u884c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e70\u70b9\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6295\u673a\u624d\u4f1a\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u5356\u591a\u9ad8\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u8981\u5927\u6982\u7387\u6210\u529f\u7684\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u9700\u8981\u9632\u8303\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff1b\u6295\u673a\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u6982\u7387\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u4e0a\u6da8\u80fd\u6da8\u591a\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keynes\u2019 observation was a rather baroque restatement of the proverb \u201ca bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.\u201d In the stock market arena, too, Keynes eventually adhered to this principle \u2013 \u201cultimate earning power,\u201d not the vague promise of riches in some undefined future period, was fundamental in determining the worth of a stock. Warren Buffett similarly insists on \u201cdemonstrated consistent earning power\u201d before he commits capital to a particular security. It is earnings \u2013 not market capitalization, revenue growth, or the novelty of an industry \u2013 that will ultimately determine the value of a company, and therefore its stock price. <\/p>
Exactitude in the stock market arena is a fiction \u2013 because of uncertainty, no one can value a security precisely. The best response to this uncertainty, Keynes and Buffett argue, is to ensure a wide buffer exists between perceived value and quoted price.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u201c\u7edd\u5bf9\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u201d vs \u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u201c\u6301\u7eed\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u201d\uff0c\u5f02\u66f2\u540c\u5de5\u4e4b\u5999\uff0c\u8db3\u89c1\u9ad8\u4eba\u6240\u89c1\u7565\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As he explained to a colleague, \u201cThe art of investing, if there is such an art, is that of taking advantage of the consequences of a mistaken opinion which is widespread.\u201d In making this observation, Keynes echoed an insight of Frank Knight, a University of Chicago academic. Knight noted that there were two types of uncertainty \u2013 measurable probability, which he labeled \u201crisk,\u201d and unquantifiable ambiguity, which was true uncertainty. <\/p>
\u201cBuffett emphasizes \u201cthe importance of being in businesses where tailwinds prevail rather than headwinds\u201d \u2013 the ultimate investment opportunity presents itself, he advises, \u201cwhen a great company gets into temporary trouble.\u201d <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5229\u7528\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u6682\u65f6\u9047\u5230\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u597d\u516c\u53f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cItalian economist Piero Sraffa. According to one story circulating within Cambridge, Sraffa \u2013 who was in possession of a substantial family inheritance \u2013 waited patiently for \u201cthe one perfect investment.\u201d Shortly after the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the Allies, he invested heavily in Japanese government bonds \u2013 and subsequently reaped a fortune in Japan\u2019s post-War \u201cmiracle years.\u201d<\/p>
In 1974, when many pundits were proclaiming that \u201cthe Death of Equities\u201d was imminent, Buffett acquired a large stake in The Washington Post. As Buffett explains, due to the overwhelming pessimism oppressing the market, the company was undervalued on any reasonable measure\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u6848\u4f8b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Similarly, Keynes \u2013 the instinctive contrarian \u2013 was uncomfortable with an investment-by-committee approach. In an ostensibly contrite letter to a fellow member on the Eton finances committee, he explained: My central principle of investment is to go contrary to general opinion<\/strong>, on the ground that, if everyone agreed about its merits, the investment is inevitably too dear and therefore unattractive. Now obviously I can\u2019t have it both ways \u2013 the whole point of the investment is that most people disagree with it. So, if others concerned don\u2019t feel enough confidence to give me a run, it is in the nature of the case that I must retire from unequal combat.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5bf9\u6295\u59d4\u4f1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4e0d\u5c51\u2014\u2014\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u5e38\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u7684\u3001\u548c\u5927\u4f17\u610f\u89c1\u76f8\u5de6\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u610f\u89c1\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u3002\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8fd8\u662f\u8981\u575a\u6301\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u63d0\u9ad8\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u4fee\u70bc\u624d\u884c\u3002\u8fd9\u70b9\u6211\u662f\u6df1\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As an early value investor, Keynes believed that \u201c\u200a\u2018Be Quiet\u2019 is our best motto\u201d \u2013 short-term price fluctuations could be ignored as mere \u201cnoise\u201d and the disciplined investor should patiently wait for the market to reassert itself as a weighing machine rather than a voting machine. The only rational response to irrational mob behavior, he determined, was to let the game players have the short term to themselves, while Keynes instead practiced a policy of \u201csteadiness\u201d in respect of his select portfolio of shares.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8981\u4eab\u53d7\u9759\u5f85\u6f6e\u8d77\u6f6e\u843d\u3001\u4e3b\u52a8\u5ffd\u89c6\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u7f8e\u5fb7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In contrast, the \u201cproper social purpose\u201d of the stock market was, as Keynes explained, \u201cto direct new investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yield.\u201d The price performance of a stock will influence not only the ability of the underlying company to raise capital on the equity market, but will also affect the company\u2019s borrowing capacity, its ability to make acquisitions, and the types of strategies it seeks to implement. A fundamental tenet of discriminating capitalism is that the stock market should reward those businesses that are the most successful. Success in the capitalist system is defined in brutally reductionist terms \u2013 the ability to earn sustainable profits over time.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
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Portfolio diversification is essentially a defensive strategy \u2013 by spreading funds between a large number of stocks, the extent to which poorly performing shares affect overall portfolio value is reduced. Further, the greater the diversification within a stock portfolio \u2013 that is, the more representative it becomes of the market as a whole \u2013 the lesser the risk of underperforming relative to the market. This outcome is important to both orthodox theorists and the average investor. Conventional financial wisdom defines \u201crisk\u201d as the volatility of a portfolio relative to the broader market, and therefore asserts that a diversified portfolio must, by definition, be less \u201crisky\u201d than a more compact suite of stocks.\u201d<\/p>
my theory of risk is that it is better to take a substantial holding of what one believes shows evidence of not being risky rather than scatter holdings in fields where one has not the same assurance.<\/p>
Keynes noted that he would prefer \u201cone investment about which I had sufficient information to form a judgment to ten securities about which I know little or nothing.\u201d His contention was that intelligent, informed investors will reduce their downside risk by scrutinizing only those sectors within their \u201ccircle of competence\u201d \u2013 to use Buffett\u2019s phrase \u2013 and then only investing in those stocks which exhibit a satisfactory margin of safety. Like Socrates, intelligent investors are wise because they recognize the bounds of their knowledge.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
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Value investors like Keynes rely on their own independent analysis rather than seeking guidance from the crowd. They practice, as Keynes did, \u201ca certain continuity of policy\u201d \u2013 a strategy that limits trading activity to those occasions when price departs widely from underlying value.<\/p>
Value investors require a dispassionate framework for investment decision-making, one that screens them from the insidious effects of animal spirits and short-termism. As Warren Buffett comments: Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ\u2026 Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6ce8\u5b9a\u662f\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ea\u80fd\u4f9d\u8d56\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u5206\u6790\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u4e2a\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u6765\u62b5\u5fa1\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201c1938, Keynes set out the most concise summary of his stock market investment philosophy: I believe now that successful investment depends on three principles:\uff081\uff09a careful selection of a few investments (or a few types of investment) having regard to their cheapness in relation to their probable actual and potential intrinsic value over a period of years ahead and in relation to alternative investments at the time;\uff082\uff09a steadfast holding of these in fairly large units through thick and thin, perhaps for several years, until either they have fulfilled their promise or it is evident that they were purchased on a mistake;\uff083\uff09a balanced investment position, i.e. a variety of risks in spite of individual holdings being large, and if possible opposed risks (e.g. a holding of gold shares amongst other equities, since they are likely to move in opposite directions when there are general fluctuations).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u603b\u7ed3\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u539f\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6458\u5f55\u6765\u81ea
Investing with Keynes
Justyn Walsh
https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/WebObjects\/MZStore.woa\/wa\/viewBook?id=0
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\u6458\u5f55\u6765\u81ea
Investing with Keynes
Justyn Walsh
https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/WebObjects\/MZStore.woa\/wa\/viewBook?id=0
\u6b64\u6750\u6599\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u7248\u6743\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6458\u5f55\u6765\u81ea
Investing with Keynes
Justyn Walsh
https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/WebObjects\/MZStore.woa\/wa\/viewBook?id=0
\u6b64\u6750\u6599\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u7248\u6743\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6458\u5f55\u6765\u81ea
Investing with Keynes
Justyn Walsh
https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/WebObjects\/MZStore.woa\/wa\/viewBook?id=0
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\u6458\u5f55\u6765\u81ea
Investing with Keynes
Justyn Walsh
https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/WebObjects\/MZStore.woa\/wa\/viewBook?id=0
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