\u5f00\u5e74\u8bfb\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u5199\u7684\u597d\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u4e4b\u524d\u6ca1\u5173\u6ce8\u5230\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u786e\u8ba4\u548c\u5398\u6e05\u3002\u6536\u83b7\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u7167\u4f8b\u505a\u4e9b\u6458\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nEvery big story could have turned out differently if a few little puffs of nothingness went the other direction.So much of the world hangs by a thread<\/strong>.<\/em> Events compound in unfathomable ways.I try to keep two things in mind in a world that\u2019s this vulnerable to chance and accident<\/strong>.<\/em> Every event creates its own offspring, which impact the world in their own special ways. It makes prediction exceedingly hard. The absurdity of past connections should humble your confidence in predicting future ones.<\/em> The other thing to keep in mind is to have a wider imagination. No matter what the world looks like today, and what seems obvious today, everything can change tomorrow because of some tiny accident no one\u2019s thinking about. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u5f80\u5f80\u4ece\u5f88\u591a\u5c0f\u4e8b\u5f00\u59cb\u53d1\u751f\u7740\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u6c38\u6052\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u53d8\uff0c\u4ece\u672a\u505c\u6b47\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u4eca\u5929\u5927\u73af\u5883\u4e0d\u597d\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5145\u6ee1\u60f3\u8c61\u3001\u5145\u6ee1\u5e0c\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nAs Carl Richards says, \u201cRisk is what\u2019s left over after you think you\u2019ve thought of everything.\u201d That\u2019s the real definition of risk\u2014what\u2019s left over after you\u2019ve prepared for the risks you can imagine. Risk is what you don\u2019t see.<\/strong> The biggest risk and the most important news story of the next ten years will be something nobody is talking about today.<\/strong> Risk is dangerous when you think it requires a specific forecast before you start preparing for it. It\u2019s better to have expectations that risk will arrive<\/strong>, though you don\u2019t know when or where, than to rely exclusively on forecasts. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4f60\u8003\u8651\u5230\u7684\u4e8b\u9879\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f60\u6ca1\u80fd\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u6700\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6216\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4eca\u5929\u8fd8\u6ca1\u4eba\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u5e94\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u662f\u5047\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u6765\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f55\u65f6\u4f55\u5730\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nYour happiness depends on your expectations<\/strong> more than anything else. So in a world that tends to get better for most people most of the time, an important life skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It\u2019s also one of the hardest. A common storyline of history goes like this: Things get better, wealth increases, technology brings new efficiencies, and medicine saves lives. The quality of life goes up. But people\u2019s expectations then rise by just as much, if not more, because those improvements also benefit other people around you, whose circumstances you anchor to. Happiness is little changed despite the world improving<\/strong>. Investor Charlie Munger once noted that the world isn\u2019t driven by greed; it\u2019s driven by envy<\/strong>. Money buys happiness in the same way drugs bring pleasure: incredible if done right, dangerous if used to mask a weakness, and disastrous when no amount is enough.<\/strong> One is the constant reminder that wealth and happiness is a two-part equation: what you have and what you expect\/need<\/strong>. When you realize that each part is equally important, you see that the overwhelming attention we pay to getting more and the negligible attention we put on managing expectations makes little sense, especially because the expectations side can be so much more in your control.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u5e78\u798f\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u77e5\u8db3\u662f\u5173\u952e\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4e16\u754c\u53d8\u5316\u5f88\u5feb\uff0c\u4f46\u5e78\u798f\u611f\u53d8\u5316\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u94b1\u548c\u5e78\u798f\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4e5f\u5f88\u8fa9\u8bc1\uff1a\u7528\u5bf9\u4e86\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u63a9\u76d6\u5f31\u70b9\u5c31\u5f88\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u8db3\u7684\u8bdd\u5c31\u662f\u573a\u707e\u96be\u3002\u8d22\u5bcc\u548c\u5e78\u798f\u4e5f\u662f\u786c\u5e01\u7684\u4e24\u9762\uff1a\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u4ec0\u4e48\u548c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u7ba1\u597d\u81ea\u5df1\u60f3\u8981\u4ec0\u4e48\u3001\u7ba1\u597d\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThe key thing is that unique minds<\/strong> have to be accepted as a full package, because the things they do well and that we admire cannot be separated from the things we wouldn\u2019t want for ourselves or we look down upon. Part of this idea is realizing that people who are capable of achieving incredible things often take risks that can backfire just as powerfully. Reversion to the mean is one of the most common stories in history<\/strong>. It\u2019s the main character in economies, markets, countries, companies, careers\u2014everything. Part of the reason it happens is because the same personality traits that push people to the top also increase the odds of pushing them over the edge.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u798f\u7978\u76f8\u4f9d\uff0c\u597d\u574f\u76f8\u878d\u3002\u6210\u5927\u4e8b\u8005\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709\u9047\u5230\u5927\u7684\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u5bfc\u81f4\u722c\u7684\u8d8a\u9ad8\u6454\u5f97\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nIf you said you were 100 percent confident that your answer was correct and it turned out to be wrong, you failed the entire test. If you said you were zero percent confident and your answer happened to be correct, you got no credit. Everything in between gave you a confidence-adjusted score<\/strong>.A common trait of human behavior is the burning desire for certaint<\/strong>y despite living in an uncertain and probabilistic world.\u201cWith a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is apt to happen,\u201d Mosteller said. That\u2019s part of why the world seems so crazy, and why once-in-a-lifetime events seem to happen regularly<\/strong>. In any normal person\u2019s life, miracles should occur at the rate of roughly one per month: The proof of the law is simple. During the time that we are awake and actively engaged in living our lives, roughly for eight hours each day, we see and hear things happening at a rate of one per second. So the total number of events that happen to us is about 30,000 per day, or about a million per month. People don\u2019t want accuracy. They want certainty. A lot of what goes on in the prediction world is an attempt to rid yourself of the painful reality of not knowing what\u2019s going to happen next. When you realize that making people feel better is more appealing than giving people useful figures, you start to see why thinking in probabilities is rare.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8c03\u6574\u5206\u6570\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff1a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5341\u8db3+\u5bf9\u4e86\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5341\u8db3+\u9519\u4e86\u5c31\u662f\u5931\u8d25\uff1b\u6ca1\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4f46\u8499\u5bf9\u4e86\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f97\u5206\u3002\u4eba\u5bf9\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u987e\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u5927\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u96be\u5f97\u4e00\u9047\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u7ecf\u5e38\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u9053\u7406\u3002\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u8981\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nAndrew Carnegie said he was as proud of his charm and ability to befriend people<\/strong> as he was of his business acumen. Elon Musk is as skilled at getting investors to believe a vision<\/strong> as he is at engineering. When a topic is complex, stories are like leverage. Ken Burns once said, \u201cThe common stories are one plus one equals two. We get it, they make sense. But the good stories are about one plus one equals three<\/strong>.\u201d That\u2019s leverage. The most persuasive stories are about what you want to believe is true<\/strong>, or are an extension of what you\u2019ve experienced firsthand<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u7528\u6545\u4e8b\u8bb2\u6e05\u695a\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u30021+1=2\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c1+1=3\u624d\u662f\u597d\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nHistorian Will Durant once said, \u201cLogic is an invention of man and may be ignored by the universe.\u201d And it often is, which can drive you mad if you expect the world to work in rational ways. Keynes, the British economist, had discovered in his work that economies are not machines. They have souls, emotions, and feelings. Keynes called them \u201canimal spirits.\u201dHill discovered the same, but for our bodies. He called them \u201cmoral factors.\u201d Our bodies are not machines, and we shouldn\u2019t expect them to perform as such. They have feelings, emotions, and fears, all of which regulate what we\u2019re capable of. Every investment price, every market valuation, is just a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow<\/strong>. Author Robert Greene once wrote, \u201cThe need for certainty is the greatest disease the mind faces.\u201d It\u2019s what causes us to overlook that the world is not one big spreadsheet whose outputs can be computed. We\u2019d never get anywhere if everyone viewed the world as a clean set of rational rules to follow.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u5b87\u5b99\u5176\u5b9e\u4e0d\u8bb2\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6309\u903b\u8f91\u6216\u8005\u8868\u683c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u65e0\u6cd5\u7cbe\u786e\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u4eba\u6027\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u5c31\u662f\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684\u52a8\u7269\u7cbe\u795e\u3002\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u5c31\u662f\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u4e58\u4e0a\u660e\u5929\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nWhen an economy is stable, people get optimistic. When people get optimistic, they go into debt. When they go into debt, the economy becomes unstable. Minsky\u2019s big idea was that stability is destabilizing<\/strong>. A lack of recessions actually plants the seeds of the next recession, which is why we can never get rid of them. That\u2019s hardly intuitive, but here again\u2014calm plants the seeds of crazy.<\/strong> What calm planting the seeds of crazy does is important: It makes us fundamentally underestimate the odds of things going wrong, and the consequences of something going wrong<\/strong>. Things can become the most dangerous when people perceive them to be the safest. The only way to know we\u2019ve exhausted all potential opportunity from markets\u2014the only way to identify the top\u2014is to push them not only past the point where the numbers stop making sense, but beyond the stories people believe about those numbers. There are two things you can do about it. One is accepting that crazy doesn\u2019t mean broken. Crazy is normal<\/strong>; beyond the point of crazy is normal. The second is realizing the power of enough<\/strong>. Investor Chamath Palihapitiya was once asked about earning the highest returns, and remarked: I would really love to just compound at fifteen percent per year. Because if I can do that for fifty years that\u2019s just enormous. Just slow and steady against hard problems<\/strong>. Maybe there\u2019s more potential out there, but it\u2019s fine to say, \u201cYou know what, I\u2019m pretty happy with this level of risk and I\u2019m fine just watching this game play out.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8d1f\u503a\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u4f1a\u6162\u6162\u6467\u6bc1\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u6837\u5b50\u3002\u51b7\u9759\u4e5f\u662f\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u79cd\u5b50\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4f4e\u4f30\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u5c31\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5730\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u5de8\u5927\u7834\u574f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u8981\u63a5\u7eb3\u75af\u72c2\uff0c\u75af\u72c2\u4e0d\u662f\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u662f\u5e38\u6001\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u8981\u7528\u597d\u77e5\u8db3\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u77e5\u8db3\u77e5\u8fdb\u9000\u624d\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u707e\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nFor every type of animal there is a most convenient size, and a change in size inevitably carries with it a change of form,\u201d Haldane wrote. A most convenient size<\/strong>. A proper state where things work well but break when you try to scale them to a different size or speed. It applies to so many things in life. There\u2019s a \u201cmost convenient\u201d investing time horizon\u2014probably somewhere around ten years or more. <\/strong> Nassim Taleb says he\u2019s a libertarian at the federal level, a Republican at the state level, a Democrat at the local level, and a socialist at the family level. People handle risk and responsibility in totally different ways when a group scales from 4 people to 100 to 100,000 to 100 million. Same for corporate culture. A management style that works brilliantly at a ten-person company can destroy a thousand-person company, which is a hard lesson to learn when some companies grow that fast in a few short years. Supercharged growth can lead to tissue damage<\/strong> and, as the biologists put it, \u201cmay only be achieved by diversion of resources away from maintenance and repair of damaged biomolecules.\u201d Slowed-down growth does the opposite, \u201callowing an increased allocation to maintenance and repair.\u201d <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Robert Greene writes: \u201cThe greatest impediment to creativity is your impatience<\/strong>, the almost inevitable desire to hurry up the process, express something, and make a splash. An important thing about this topic is that most great things in life<\/strong>\u2014from love to careers to investing\u2014gain their value from two things: patience and scarcity. Patience to let something grow, and scarcity to admire what it grows into<\/strong>. But what are two of the most common tactics when people pursue something great? Trying to make it faster and bigger. It\u2019s always been a problem, and always will be.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u9002\u5408\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u89c4\u6a21\u662f\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u548c\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u57fa\u91d1\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u5927\u57fa\u91d1\u6e83\u8d25\u7684\u9053\u7406\u7adf\u7136\u8fd9\u4e48\u7b80\u5355\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u8981\u9002\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e3b\u52a8\u9002\u5e94\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8d85\u5e38\u589e\u957f\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u589e\u957f\u624d\u662f\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u751f\u547d\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u8010\u5fc3\u548c\u7a00\u7f3a\uff0c\u8010\u5fc3\u4ee5\u9759\u5f85\u4e8b\u52a1\u6309\u671f\u5408\u9002\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6210\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f8\u53cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nA constant truth you see throughout history is that the biggest changes and the most important innovations don\u2019t happen when everyone is happy and things are going well<\/strong>. They tend to occur during, and after, a terrible event. When people are a little panicked, shocked, worried, and when the consequences of not acting quickly are too painful to bear. Militaries are engines of innovation because they occasionally deal with problems so important\u2014so urgent, so vital\u2014that money and manpower are removed as obstacles, and those involved collaborate in ways that are hard to emulate during calm times. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u624d\u6709\u521b\u9020\u6027\u53d1\u6325\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8d70\u8fdb\u90a3\u4e2a\u826f\u591c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8981\u8ffd\u6c42\u8212\u9002\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u8212\u9002\u533a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u662f\u628a\u521b\u9020\u6027\u627c\u6740\u6389\u4e86\u3002\u75db\u82e6\u624d\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u6210\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u6070\u6070\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6240\u5728\uff1a\u592a\u8212\u670d\u4e86\uff0c\u611f\u53d7\u4e0d\u5230\u592a\u5927\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nBut there\u2019s another story about the 1930s that rarely gets mentioned: it was, by far, the most productive and technologically progressive decade in U.S. history. The number of problems people solved, and the ways they discovered how to build stuff more efficiently, is a forgotten story of the \u201930s that helps explain a lot of why the rest of the twentieth century was so prosperous.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u5927\u8427\u6761\u5c45\u7136\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5177\u521b\u9020\u529b\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56f0\u5883\u4e5f\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5bd2\u51ac\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u573a\u5bd2\u51ac\u90fd\u662f\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6253\u4e0b\u66f4\u624e\u5b9e\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u6d6a\u8d39\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bd2\u51ac\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nPresident Richard Nixon once observed: The unhappiest people of the world are those in the international watering places like the South Coast of France, and Newport, and Palm Springs, and Palm Beach. Going to parties every night. Playing golf every afternoon. Drinking too much. Talking too much. Thinking too little. Retired. No purpose<\/strong>. So while there are those that would totally disagree with this and say \u201cGee, if I could just be a millionaire! That would be the most wonderful thing.\u201d If I could just not have to work every day, if I could just be out fishing or hunting or playing golf or traveling, that would be the most wonderful life in the world\u2014they don\u2019t know life<\/strong>. Because what makes life mean something is purpose. A goal. The battle, the struggle\u2014even if you don\u2019t win it<\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s a big takeaway from history, and it leads to a realization that will always be true: Be careful what you wish for<\/strong>. A carefree and stress-free life sounds wonderful only until you recognize the motivation and progress it prevents. No one cheers for hardship\u2014nor should they\u2014but we should recognize that it\u2019s the most potent fuel of problem-solving, serving as both the root of what we enjoy today and the seed of opportunity for what we\u2019ll enjoy tomorrow<\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u592a\u8212\u670d\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u7a7a\u865a\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u5f00\u5fc3\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u3001\u6291\u90c1\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u5982\u679c\u628a\u66b4\u5bcc\u3001\u5929\u5929\u73a9\u4e50\u5f53\u6210\u751f\u6d3b\u76ee\u6807\u2014\u2014\u6070\u6070\u662f\u4e0d\u61c2\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u9700\u8981\u6709\u76ee\u7684\u611f\u3001\u6709\u76ee\u6807\u3001\u9700\u8981\u6218\u6597\u3001\u9700\u8981\u6597\u4e89\u3002\u82e6\u96be\u624d\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u8eba\u5e73\u4e0d\u662f\u3002\u8fd9\u6bb5\u8bdd\u6211\u611f\u89c9\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u6302\u5899\u4e0a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nWarren Buffett says it takes twenty years to build a reputation and five minutes to destroy one. A lot of things work just like that. It\u2019s a natural part of how the world works, driven by the fact that good news comes from compounding, which always takes time, but bad news comes from a loss in confidence<\/strong> or a catastrophic error that can occur in the blink of an eye. That\u2019s the real lesson from evolution: If you have a big number in the exponent slot, you do not need extraordinary change to deliver extraordinary results. It\u2019s not intuitive, but it\u2019s so powerful.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u957f\u671f\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u6210\u679c\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u88ab\u4e00\u591c\u95f4\u6bc1\u6389\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nA big thing to know about how people think is that progress requires optimism and pessimism to coexist<\/strong>. They seem like conflicting mindsets, so it\u2019s more common for people to prefer one or the other. But knowing how to balance the two has always been, and always will be, one of life\u2019s most important skills. The best financial plan is to save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist<\/strong>. That idea\u2014the belief that things will get better mixed with the reality that the path between now and then will be a continuous chain of setback, disappointment, surprise, and shock\u2014shows up all over history, in all areas of life. That\u2019s the balance\u2014planning like a pessimist and dreaming like an optimist. That mix is counterintuitive, but it\u2019s so powerful when done right. Remaining optimistic while accepting the reality of despair is fascinating to witness. In the middle is the sweet spot, what I call the rational optimists<\/strong>: those who acknowledge that history is a constant chain of problems and disappointments and setbacks, but who remain optimistic because they know setbacks don\u2019t prevent eventual progress<\/strong>. They sound like hypocrites and flip-floppers, but often they\u2019re just looking further ahead than other people.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u60b2\u559c\u4ea4\u52a0\u624d\u80fd\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u957f\u671f\u4e50\u89c2\/\u4fe1\u5fc3+\u77ed\u671f\u60b2\u89c2\/\u52a1\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u7406\u6027\u4e50\u89c2\u6d3e\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u524d\u9014\u662f\u5149\u660e\u7684\u642d\u914d\u9053\u8def\u662f\u66f2\u6298\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u4e50\u89c2\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4fdd\u5b88\u50a8\u84c4\uff1b\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u4e50\u89c2\u53bb\u68a6\u60f3\uff0c\u4fdd\u5b88\u5730\u505a\u8ba1\u5212\uff1b\u867d\u7136\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u4f46\u5f88\u6709\u7528\u3002\u63a5\u53d7\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u82e6\u96be\/\u60b2\u89c2\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u5bf9\u957f\u671f\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u811a\u8e0f\u5b9e\u5730+\u4ef0\u671b\u661f\u7a7a\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u867d\u7136\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u5931\u671b\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u524d\u8fdb\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4efb\u4f55\u82e6\u96be\u6240\u963b\u6321\u4e0d\u4e86\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u5b8f\u5927\u548c\u503c\u5f97\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u89c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nNot maximizing your potential<\/strong> is actually the sweet spot in a world where perfecting one skill compromises another. Evolution has spent 3.8 billion years testing and proving the idea that some inefficiency is good<\/strong>. Many people strive for efficient lives, where no hour is wasted. But an overlooked skill that doesn\u2019t get enough attention is the idea that wasting time can be a great thing<\/strong>. Albert Einstein put it this way: I take time to go for long walks on the beach so that I can listen to what is going on inside my head. If my work isn\u2019t going well, I lie down in the middle of a workday and gaze at the ceiling while I listen and visualize what goes on in my imagination. Someone once asked Charlie Munger what Warren Buffett\u2019s secret<\/strong> was. \u201cI would say half of all the time he spends is sitting on his ass and reading<\/strong>.\u201d He has a lot of time to think. The traditional eight-hour work schedule is great if your job is repetitive or physically constraining. But for the large and growing number of \u201cthought jobs,\u201d it might not be. You might be better off taking two hours in the morning to stay at home thinking about some big problem. Room for error<\/strong> is often viewed as a cost, an anchor, an inefficiency. But in the long run it can have some of the highest payoffs imaginable.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0d\u8981\u8d70\u6781\u7aef\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8981\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u8981\u7ed9\u751f\u6d3b\u7559\u767d\u3001\u7ed9\u5de5\u4f5c\u7559\u767d\u3002\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6\u5c31\u662f\u5927\u91cf\u65f6\u95f4\u7559\u767d\u7528\u6765\u9605\u8bfb\u548c\u601d\u8003\u3002\u6709\u7559\u767d\u3001\u5bb9\u9519\u7a7a\u95f4\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nSame goes for diets, finances, marketing\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0. everyone wants a shortcut<\/strong>. It\u2019s always been this way, but I suspect it\u2019s getting worse as technology inflates our benchmark for how fast results should happen. Charlie Munger once noted: \u201cThe safest way to try to get what you want is to try to deserve what you want<\/strong>. It\u2019s such a simple idea. It\u2019s the golden rule. You want to deliver to the world what you would buy if you were on the other end. \u201cIf you\u2019re efficient, you\u2019re doing it the wrong way. The right way is the hard way<\/strong>. The show was successful because I micromanaged it\u2014every word, every line, every take, every edit, every casting. If you\u2019re efficient, you\u2019re doing it the wrong way. That is so counterintuitive. But I think it perfectly highlights the danger of shortcuts. Part of this is simply understanding the costs of success.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
Hard\u6a21\u5f0f\u624d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u6377\u5f84\u3001\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5f3a\u8c03\u6548\u7387\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nEvolution is good at what it does. And one of the things it does is give animals bigger bodies over time<\/strong>. Going public is a sign that a company has found enough competitive advantage to scale into a large corporation. But almost 40 percent of all public companies lost all their value from 1980 to 2014. That was why Edison was so optimistic about innovation. He explained: You can never tell what apparently small discovery will lead to. Somebody discovers something and immediately a host of experimenters and inventors are playing all the variations upon it. One takeaway here is that it\u2019s easy to always feel like we\u2019re falling behind. In most eras it can feel like we haven\u2019t invented anything useful for ten or twenty years. But that\u2019s merely because it can take ten or twenty years for an innovation to become useful. When you realize that progress is made step-by-step, slowly over time, you realize that tiny little innovations that no one thinks much of are the seeds for what has the potential to compound into something great.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u8ba9\u52a8\u7269\u4f53\u578b\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u4e0a\u5e02\u540e40%\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4f1a\u5f52\u96f6\u3002\u7231\u8fea\u751f\u5bf9\u521b\u65b0\u662f\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\uff0c\u611f\u89c9\u53ef\u80fd\u6162\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8fdb\u5c55\u4e2d\uff0c\u6162\u6162\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e2d\u6539\u53d8\u7740\u4eba\u7c7b\u8fdb\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nLie to people who want to be lied to, and you\u2019ll get rich. Tell the truth to those who want the truth, and you\u2019ll make a living. Tell the truth to those who want to be lied to, and you\u2019ll go broke. Incentives are the most powerful force in the world and can get people to justify or defend almost anything. When you understand how powerful incentives can be, you stop being surprised when the world lurches from one absurdity to the next. If asked, \u201cHow many people in the world are truly crazy?\u201d I might say, I don\u2019t know, 3 percent to 5 percent. But if I asked, \u201cHow many people in the world would be willing to do something crazy if their incentives were right?\u201d I\u2019d say, oh, easily 50 percent or more. There can be a difference between knowing what\u2019s right and making a living delivering what you know to be righ<\/strong>t. This may be most common in investing, law, and medicine, when \u201cdo nothing\u201d is the best answer, but \u201cdo something\u201d is the career incentive.<\/strong> When good and honest people can be incentivized into crazy behavior, it\u2019s easy to underestimate the odds of the world going off the rails.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6fc0\u52b1\u662f\u5f88\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u505a\u5bf9\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u548c\u88ab\u751f\u6d3b\u6240\u8feb\u505a\u5bf9\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002\u8981\u533a\u5206\u3002\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u75af\u72c2\u4e5f\u662f\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u626d\u66f2\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nNothing is more persuasive than what you\u2019ve experienced firsthand<\/strong>. In 1943 Franklin Roosevelt effectively capped incomes at the equivalent of $400,000 per year, with everything above that taxed at 94 percent. Jim Carrey once said, \u201cI think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it\u2019s not the answer.\u201d Part of this is the same reason that predicting how you\u2019ll respond to risk is difficult: It\u2019s hard to imagine the full context until you experience it firsthand. Future fortunes are imagined in a vacuum, but reality is always lived with the good and bad taken together, competing for attention.<\/strong> You might think you know how it\u2019ll feel. Then you experience it firsthand and you realize, ah, okay. It\u2019s more complicated than you thought.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u767e\u95fb\u4e0d\u5982\u4e00\u8bd5\uff0c\u4eb2\u81ea\u7ecf\u5386\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c45\u7136\u4e2a\u7a0e\u66fe\u9ad8\u8fbe94%\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ecf\u5386\u662f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nLong-term thinking is easier to believe in than to accomplish. Everything worthwhile has a price, and the prices aren\u2019t always obvious. The real price of long term\u2014the skills required, the mentality needed\u2014is easy to minimize and often summarized with simple phrases like \u201cBe more patient<\/strong>,\u201d as if that explains why so many people can\u2019t. Long-term thinking can be a deceptive safety blanket that people assume lets them bypass the painful and unpredictable short run. But it never does. It might be the opposite: The longer your time horizon, the more calamities and disasters you\u2019ll experience<\/strong>. Baseball player Dan Quisenberry once said, \u201cThe future is much like the present, only longer.\u201dLong term is less about time horizon and more about flexibility.<\/strong> Benjamin Graham said, \u201cThe purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.\u201d The more flexibility you have, the less you need to know what happens next. There are two types of information: permanent and expiring. Permanent information is harder to notice because it\u2019s buried in books rather than blasted in headlines. But its benefit is huge. It\u2019s not just that permanent information never expires, letting you accumulate it. It also compounds over time, leveraging off what you\u2019ve already learned. Expiring information tells you what happened; permanent information tells you why something happened and is likely to happen again<\/strong>. That \u201cwhy\u201d can translate and interact with stuff you know about other topics, which is where the compounding comes in.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u957f\u671f\u601d\u7ef4\u662f\u9700\u8981\u6709\u8010\u5fc3\u7684\u3002\u8d8a\u957f\u671f\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eca\u5929\u3002\u957f\u671f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u3002\u533a\u5206\u6c38\u4e45\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u8fc7\u671f\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nSimplicity is the hallmark of truth<\/strong>\u2014we should know better, but complexity continues to have a morbid attraction. When you give an academic audience a lecture that is crystal clear from alpha to omega, your audience feels cheated.\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0. The sore truth is that complexity sells better. When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don\u2019t. What you need is to identify the core principles<\/strong>\u2014generally three to twelve of them<\/strong>\u2014that govern the field. The million things you thought you had to memorize are simply various combinations of the core principles. This is so vital. In finance, spending less than you make, saving the difference, and being patient<\/strong> is perhaps 90 percent of what you need to know to do well.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u7b80\u5355\u624d\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u771f\u76f8\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7684\u80cc\u540e\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b80\u5355\u539f\u5219\u6784\u6210\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThere\u2019s a long history of people adapting and rebuilding while the scars of their ordeal remain forever, changing how they think about risk, reward, opportunities, and goals for as long as they live. An important component of human behavior is that people who\u2019ve had different experiences than you will think differently than you do. They\u2019ll have different goals, outlooks, wishes, and values. So most debates are not actual disagreements; they\u2019re people with different experiences talking over each other.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4f24\u75db\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u4f24\u75a4\u6c38\u6052\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u707e\u96be\u6765\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u5f00\u5e74\u8bfb\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u5199\u7684\u597d\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u4e4b\u524d\u6ca1\u5173\u6ce8\u5230\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u786e\u8ba4\u548c\u5398\u6e05\u3002\u6536\u83b7\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u7167\u4f8b\u505a\u4e9b\u6458\u8981\u3002 Eve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-book"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6VzCl-oE","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1386,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1386","url_meta":{"origin":1528,"position":0},"title":"The First Tycoon 2310","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2023 \u5e74 1 \u6708 29 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f20\u5947\u5927\u4f6c\u8303\u5fb7\u6bd4\u5c14\u7279\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4f20\u5947\u4e4b\u5904\u51e0\u4e4e\u65e0\u4eba\u53ef\u53ca\u3002\u4ed6\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u84b8\u6c7d\u8239\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u662f\u8239\u8fd0\u5927\u4f6c\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1112,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1112","url_meta":{"origin":1528,"position":1},"title":"The Innovation Stack 2122","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2021 \u5e74 9 \u6708 22 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ffb\u8bd1\u4e3a\u96c6\u6210\u5f0f\u521b\u65b0\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u79cb\u5047\u671f\u8bfb\u5b8c\u7684\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u82f1\u6587\u4e66\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u662fSquare\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/image.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/image.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/image.jpeg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/image.jpeg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1023,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1023","url_meta":{"origin":1528,"position":2},"title":"\u300a\u7a00\u7f3a\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u9677\u5165\u8d2b\u7a77\u548c\u5fd9\u788c\u300b2022","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2020 \u5e74 9 \u6708 13 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u676d\u5dde\u56de\u7a0b\u7684\u98de\u673a\u4e0a\u5306\u5306\u8bfb\u5b8c\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u4e66\uff0c\u89c2\u70b9\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f88\u503c\u5f97\u6df1\u601d\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u76f4\u5bf9\u201c\u4e13\u6ce8\u201d\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7279\u8d28\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1168,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1168","url_meta":{"origin":1528,"position":3},"title":"\u300a\u957f\u671f\u4e3b\u4e49\u300b2203","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2022 \u5e74 1 \u6708 23 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"Honeywell CEO David Cole\u7684\u81ea\u4f20\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e26\u9886\u970d\u5c3c\u97e6\u5c14\u8fd1\u5e74\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u4e86\u4e0d\u8d77\u7684\u6210\u957f\u3002\u82f1\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1845,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1845","url_meta":{"origin":1528,"position":4},"title":"\u54c8\u8428\u6bd4\u65af\uff1a\u8c37\u6b4cAI\u4e4b\u8111 2608","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708 30 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u4f20\u5947\u4f5c\u5bb6Sebastian\u768426\u5e74\u65b0\u4f5c\uff0cDeepmind\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u7684\u4f20\u8bb0\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u5bf9AI\u3001\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u57fa\u672c\u547d\u9898\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1348,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1348","url_meta":{"origin":1528,"position":5},"title":"2022\u5e74\u8bfb\u4e66\u56de\u987e","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2022 \u5e74 12 \u6708 30 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u9605\u8bfb\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u4e66\u4e2d\u603b\u80fd\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u6536\u83b7\u3002\u4e00\u5ea6\u559c\u6b22\u8bfb\u7eb8\u8d28\u4e66\uff0c\u7535\u5b50\u4e66\u8bfb\u7684\u5c11\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5927\u91cf\u7528I\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1528"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1528\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1529,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1528\/revisions\/1529"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}