\u6700\u8fd1\u8bfb\u7684\u4e00\u672c\u5173\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u6280\u672f\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u547c\u5e94\u5206\u6790\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684AI\u70ed\u6f6e\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u8fd8\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8bf4\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\u548c\u5206\u6790\u8fd8\u662f\u5341\u5206\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u7684\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u53cd\u590d\u9605\u8bfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6b64\u523b\u6b63\u5750\u5728\u897f\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u5730\u533a\u7684Dakhla Sur Mer\u56db\u697c\u9910\u5385\u7b49\u7740\u5f00\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8bf4\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\u8fd8\u662f\u5341\u5206\u7384\u5e7b\u7684\u3002\u811a\u4e0b\u662f\u4e00\u7247\u751f\u673a\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u571f\u58e4\uff0c\u6682\u65b0\u7684\u8def\u9762\u5916\u5230\u5904\u662f\u5efa\u8bbe\u7684\u5de5\u5730\uff0c\u8fde\u6d77\u5858\u90fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5728\u65b0\u4fee\u3002\u8fd9\u7247\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u521a\u4ece\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u89e3\u51b3\u5b8c\u4e3b\u6743\u5f52\u5c5e\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u767e\u516c\u91cc\u5916\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u8513\u5ef6\u7684\u96f7\u533a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u8981\u627e\u7684mine\u548c\u5730\u96f7mines\u7adf\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bcd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u7684\u62db\u5546\u653f\u7b56\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u53cb\u597d\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u7a0e\u6536\uff0c\u662f\u4e2a\u673a\u4f1a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u4e4b\u5730\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nBubbles are important, undeniable facts of life for citizens living under entrepreneurial capitalism. However, bubbles are both inefficient (from a strictly economic perspective) and potentially damaging to the individual interests of those who are caught up in them. Our inability to avoid bubbles suggests that our understanding of them is incomplete.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6ce1\u6cab\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u53cd\u590d\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e5f\u8bf4\u660e\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u61c2\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nIt was not merely unknown if and how such metrics would translate into bottom-line profits\u2014it was unknowable. The eToys story epitomizes the interaction of unknowability and consequent narratives that are used to divine the\u00a0unforeseeable future.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u4f30\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u8f6c\u5316\u662f\u4e2a\u5f88\u96be\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nCounterintuitively, knowing who might profit from an innovation might reduce the likelihood of a bubble. Because all bets are tied up in one firm, the bet is more closely aligned with the success of the technology, as opposed to different segment or monetization strategies associated with the new technology. There is less room for competing narratives to appeal to different populations and thereby drive up the entire sector.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u6709\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u5982\u679c\u660e\u786e\u96c6\u4e2d\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5c3d\u65e9\u5f62\u6210\u5784\u65ad\u683c\u5c40\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u70b9\u4e0a\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u503c\u5f97\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5e73\u53f0\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u8981\u597d\u597d\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7684AI\u6a21\u578b\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6b64\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u8fd8\u6ca1\u96c6\u4e2d\u5230\u5355\u4e00\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThe presence of pure-play firms indicates that uncertainty may be exploitable by new entrants. Second, pure plays make good stories. Finally, for a bubble to form, there must be a way for investors to literally buy into the story. If there are no tradable financial assets that closely track the fortunes of the technology, then there can be no market speculation. Without a pure-play investment opportunity in a given technology, it is simply not possible for a speculative bubble to form for that technology. Simply put: a market must already exist for there to be a market bubble.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
Pure-Play\u7eaf\u65b0\u6982\u5ff5\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u662f\u663e\u8457\u7684\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u5f62\u6210\u4e0a\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u7eaf\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u7eafGPU\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u9ad8\u4f30\u5c31\u5341\u5206\u6613\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nSome ideas and technologies are better subjects of narratives. It was easier to tell a story about human flight than the world\u2019s first synthetic plastic, Bakelite. The degree to which technologies lend themselves to storytelling is an important factor in driving bubbles.For other technologies, such as polyester or the laser, neither of which generated a boom and bust cycle, we find no associated coordinating event and no set of plausible entrepreneurial narratives.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u5929\u751f\u6709\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u80fd\u9762\u5411\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8f66\u3001\u6bd4\u5982\u624b\u673a\u3001\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u5851\u6599\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6750\u6599\u5219\u4e0d\u884c\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u624e\u5b9e\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u9002\u5408\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4f1a\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\u5c31\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThe fourth and final causal factor that contributes to the likelihood of speculation is the presence of novice or unsophisticated investors. Retail-facing innovations may be more likely to grab the attention of a broad set of investors, even when that retail-facing quality is not perfectly correlated with profitability.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u65b0\u97ed\u83dc\u7684\u63a8\u6ce2\u52a9\u6f9c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u5173\u952e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nwe measure their frothiness. Formally, frothiness is the number of standard deviations from the predicted stock or index trend. We classify an episode as a boom and bust when frothiness is greater than 2, that is, 2 standard deviations above the trend, where the \u201ctrend\u201d is the predicted stock price looking forward and backward seven years.The dotted line is the bubble line\u2014or the line that at every point in time is exactly 2 standard deviations above the trend.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6ce1\u6cab\u901a\u5e38\u5f62\u6210\u57282\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Recognizing that uncertainty is a fundamental feature of the entrepreneurial dynamic, we explore how different types of uncertainty accompany the emergence of new industries. Each type of uncertainty\u2014technological, competitive, business model and value chain, and demand\u2014is introduced through a series of technology case studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nAll things being equal, uncertainty can lead to higher asset valuations because of the option effect. The logic is straightforward: all limited liability investments (including investments in corporations) have some of the central features of options; the upside is unlimited, but one can lose only the amount invested.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65b0\u884c\u4e1a\u548c\u65b0\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002\u6280\u672f\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u90fd\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027+\u6709\u9650\u8d23\u4efb\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4e5f\u6784\u5efa\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u4ef7\u503c\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nan effective technological narrative generates expectations\u2014\u201cstatements about the future\u201d that are \u201cperformative\u201d; statements about the future can alter behavior of market participants; \u201cthey do something.\u201d\u2077 One important performative effect is that expectations can be self-fulfilling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Assuming that the investing public possesses heterogeneous tastes for different narratives, the more technological bids we can construct about each technology, the more people are likely to be interested in potentially investing in a venture intended to create each particular \u201cimagined future.\u201d More potential narratives means more bids, and different bids will appeal to varied investor tastes. By sweeping up a larger, more varied set of investors, a technology that can support more narratives is likely to generate speculation.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u8d8a\u597d\u8bb2\uff0c\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e5f\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nStratifying the nature of uncertainty\u2014seeing it as a family of types\u2014helps us understand when narratives are more likely to take off; we can more clearly see the various dimensions around which narratives might be constructed. That is, unpacking uncertainty allows us to estimate both the likelihood of the option effect mentioned earlier, as well as the likelihood of fantastic narratives. Both can lead to boom and bust episodes, but only the latter can lead to a bubble.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u5c06\u53d9\u4e8b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u5c42\u5206\u6790\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u65e2\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u671f\u6743\u6027\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nIn other words, whereas expert investors appreciated correctly the importance of airplanes and air travel, the narrative of inevitability largely drowned out their caution. Technological uncertainty was framed as opportunity, not risk. The market overestimated how quickly the industry would achieve technological viability and profitability.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u201c\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\u201d\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u63a9\u76d6\u5f88\u591a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u76c8\u5229\u7b49\uff0c\u4f1a\u628a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5f53\u6210\u673a\u4f1a\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9700\u8981\u8b66\u60d5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThe combination of new rubber trees coming on line and better use of raw materials led rubber prices to plummet 75% between 1910 and 1913, even in the face of increased demand for automobiles. This caused a bust. To this day, the inflation-adjusted price of natural rubber in 1910 remains the historical apex. Free entry into the production of rubber ensured that supranormal profits would never return to the rubber market. What happened then is an important lesson in the role of free entry and market structure in producing broad-based market speculation.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6a61\u80f6\u4ef7\u683c\u5d29\u76d8\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u4f9b\u7ed9\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nA successful business must position itself in an advantageous part of the market ecosystem, even as that ecosystem is forming. Since the eventual form of this ecosystem is often unknowable, the business and its investors must be both good and lucky.\u00a0Betting on growth implied a bet as well that demand would be high if a product could be offered that provided sufficient quality at the right price. As we now know, this was a good bet. In contrast, it was a much poorer bet for airplanes in the late 1920s.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u597d\u4f01\u4e1a\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u6709\u5229\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u7ad9\u5bf9\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5341\u5206\u5173\u952e\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u4e0a\u63d0\u4f9b\u65b9\u6848\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u641e\u8f66\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u82af\u7247\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nWe are experiencing a very similar situation today when we consider autonomous vehicles. It is unclear which companies will make money, where the bottleneck will be, and which company, if any, will control the bottleneck. Should we place bets with ride-sharing companies such as Uber or Lyft, legacy automobile manufacturers such as Ford and GM, diversified tech firms like Google and Apple, upstarts such as Tesla, or technology specialists such as Intel, which purchased the leading sensor provider Mobileye?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u4e0a\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u54ea\u91cc\u6700\u597d\uff1f\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nTo summarize, we have seen that uncertainty is more than a binary description of the state of the world. Rather, uncertainty can be decomposed into components\u2014technological, competitive, business model and value chain, regulatory, and demand uncertainty. Uncertainty is understood only when applied to specific contexts. It is only then that we might consider what is uncertain. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5e76\u975e\u975e\u9ed1\u5373\u767d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u6210\u591a\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u6280\u672f\u7684\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u3001\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u7684\u3001\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u7b49\u51e0\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nFirst, we are more likely to buy into narratives that draw analogies to things with which we are familiar. That is because in we tend to falsely believe that the past always predicts the future. But often, new opportunities are difficult to understand, and sloppy analogies lead to bad decisions. Experience is about learning to restrain and override these very biases; it is about not constructing specious narratives.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u7c7b\u6bd4\u662f\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u662f\u6570\u5b57\u7f8e\u5143\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u5c31\u5f88\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u66ff\u4ee3\u4eba\u4e5f\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\u3002\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u5c31\u662f\u80fd\u770b\u900f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u3001\u770b\u7a7f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7f16\u9020\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nSimile and metaphor are critical to the construction of narratives. The use of analogies is typical in trying to understand an uncertain world. This idea was what Stanford professor Chip Heath and his brother, Dan Heath, of Duke University, would call \u201csticky.\u201dEven in the face of countervailing evidence, sticky ideas have some or all of the following six attributes: simple, unexpected, concrete, credible, emotional, and (finally) part of a story<\/strong>. Simple means that the idea has a brisk message, even if the underlying reality is complex. The idea of offshore oil appears simple, even if the geology and economics of offshore oil extraction are not. Unexpected is something that makes an idea shiny, interesting. That Israel might have oil was unexpected in the sense that part of the mythos of Zionism is self-reliance and hard work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just as sticky ideas about new, emerging technologies can envelop novice investors, so, too, can incomplete information. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman points out that stories are easier to concoct when the facts are sparser.\u00b9\u2075 The less we know, the more we supply from our own imagination, which is influenced by our biases.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6545\u4e8b\u8d8a\u6709\u717d\u52a8\u6027\u8d8a\u80fd\u5438\u5f15\u65b0\u97ed\u83dc\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u5c31\u8d8a\u80fd\u7f16\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u7092\u7684\u8d8ahigh\u3002\u717d\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff1a\u7b80\u5355\u3001\u610f\u5916\u3001\u5177\u4f53\u3001\u53ef\u4fe1\u3001\u611f\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f88\u6709\u6545\u4e8b\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nImportantly, there was not a general expectation of selling shares as a means for investors to earn a profit; rather, the expectation was that shares would yield dividends in the same way that bonds earned interest. For example, investors in early automobile companies expected dividends, not to be able to sell their shares. There was no common way to think about \u201cgrowth\u201d stocks\u2014indeed, the idea of growth stocks did not emerge until the 1960s. But the new industrials still attracted investors because they were filled with wonder and generated cash. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
60\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e4b\u524d\u5c45\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u957f\u80a1\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u6700\u521d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u90fd\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8d5a\u5229\u6da6\u548c\u7c89\u7ea2\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ece\u80a1\u7968\u4e70\u5356\u4e2d\u8d5a\u94b1\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4e5f\u8fd8\u6709\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u591a\u6b21\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u5357\u6d77\u6ce1\u6cab\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\u201cFrom 1926 through 1930, New York banks loaned $25 million on margin ($342 million in 2016 dollars), and out-of-state banks loaned $16 million ($218 million in 2016 dollars), but other lenders loaned more than $48 million, equivalent to $641 million in 2016, so more than both other groups combined. Not only were novices investing, we can also conclude that stock market speculation in the late 1920s was also backed by a new and likely inexperienced class of margin lenders. The democratization of investment had worked on more than one level. Money markets allowed industrial firms to park idle capital in the hands of market speculators, even as the firms themselves were ill equipped to understand the risks involved in the practice.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u8d44\u91d1\u548c\u6760\u6746\u662f\u7092\u4f5c\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u5173\u6ce8\u5927\u5c0f\u975e\u7b49\u8d44\u91d1\u9762\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u8fd8\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nStart-up stories are more interesting than profits or products in particular divisions of existing firms, and\u2014all else equal\u2014publicly traded start-ups are the most interesting of all. Start-ups are more likely to form when entrepreneurs can tell a story about how a new technology makes existing firms\u2019 capabilities obsolete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Speculation requires pure plays, and pure plays are defined by the way new technologies complement existing firm capabilities. Existing firms tend to have diversified across a range of markets, and new technologies that complement those already in use are likely to become part of the portfolios of diversified firms. Indeed, some technologies on our list, such as nylon, emerged as part of the research and development efforts of an already-diversified firm. We should not be surprised, therefore, that investors were unable to map their investments directly onto the fortunes of many new technologies.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6295\u673a\u9700\u8981\u6295\u8d44\u5230\u7eaf\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1\u4e0a\u3002\u4e0d\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1\u62b1\u6709\u5e7b\u60f3\uff0c\u7eaf\u5ea6\u5b9e\u9645\u6709\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u7092\u4f5c\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u65b0\u4e0a\u5e02\u7684\u7eaf\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1\u5bb9\u6613\u7092\u5230\u5929\u4e0a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u4e2a\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u9002\u5f53\u5192\u9669\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002cricle\u7b49\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8fd9\u70b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u540e\u8981\u6293\u8fd9\u7c7b\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nShould we expect a crash in Tesla shares? Our model would predict that this is a likely event: a consumer-facing technology, high uncertainty, and a skilled entrepreneur behind the curtain pulling the levers. We suspect that investors are ignoring a strong response from established automobile manufacturers entering the EV market and the way prices will fall in the face of this competition. We predict that Tesla shares will come down to earth. Call us when they do.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u98ce\u9669\u4e5f\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u53d9\u4e8b\u652f\u6301\u7684\u3002\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\uff0c\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u548c\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u7b49\u8fd8\u9700\u62ed\u76ee\u4ee5\u5f85\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nA successful narrative can be self-fulfilling. On the other hand, the power of words is not limitless, and often, compelling narratives fail to make money and end in failure.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u597d\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u53ea\u6709\u6545\u4e8b\u4e5f\u4e0d\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nIf the answer is affirmative across all six categories, we should be very concerned that we are in a bubble.<\/strong> If one comes to the conclusion that the answer is no across more of these categories, the fear of the god of froth should decline. When only one or two categories are affirmative, it would appear unlikely.\u00a0\uff081\uff09Story<\/strong>: Is the story particularly compelling or sticky?\u00a0\uff082\uff09Use<\/strong>: Is the story about something that you are familiar with in terms of use or imagination but in an area that you fail to understand the business well?\u00a0\uff083\uff09Na\u00effs<\/strong>: Are there other naive investors in the market? Who is investing in this technology?\u00a0\uff084\uff09Pure play:<\/strong> Is there a stock that is believed to track the fortunes of the technology directly?\u00a0\uff085\uff09Competition<\/strong>: Does the narrative ignore future competition?\u00a0\uff086\uff09Business model<\/strong>: Are there a variety of stories about how money will be made commercializing the new technology?\u00a0\uff087\uff09Narrative accelerator<\/strong>: Did something or somebody turbocharge the narrative?\u00a0\uff088\uff09Leverage<\/strong>: Are investments significantly leveraged? Do intermediaries play a large role?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u79bb\u4e0d\u5f00\u8fd98\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9010\u9879\u5206\u6790\u7684\uff0c2-3\u9879\u7b26\u5408\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f466\u9879\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7b26\u5408\u8981\u5c0f\u5fc3\u4e86\u3002\u6545\u4e8b\u662f\u5426\u6709\u717d\u52a8\u6027\u3001\u7528\u9014\u662f\u5426\u6613\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u8054\u60f3\u3001\u662f\u5426\u6709\u65b0\u97ed\u83dc\u5165\u573a\u3001\u662f\u5426\u6709\u7eaf\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1\u4e0a\u5e02\u3001\u662f\u5426\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u3001\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e7b\u60f3\u51fa\u591a\u79cd\u53d8\u73b0\u65b9\u5f0f\u3001\u662f\u5426\u6709\u4eba\u52a0\u901f\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u662f\u5426\u6709\u9ad8\u6760\u6746\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4eceAI\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u6545\u4e8b\u5f88\u6709\u717d\u52a8\u6027\u3001\u7528\u9014\u4e5f\u5bb9\u6613\u8054\u60f3\u3001\u53d8\u73b0\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e7b\u60f3\u51fa\u591a\u79cd\u3001\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u3001\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\/OpenAI\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u901f\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e94\u70b9\u57fa\u672c\u5177\u5907\u4e86\uff1b\u65b0\u97ed\u83dc\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u770b\u4e0d\u6e05\u3001\u7eaf\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u8981\u7b49openAI\u4e0a\u5e02\u4e86\uff1b\u9ad8\u6760\u6746\u662f\u76ee\u524dcoreweave\u3001\u7532\u9aa8\u6587\u6700\u8fd1\u6b63\u5728\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e48\u770b\u7684\u8bdd\uff0cAI\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u65e0\u7591\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u4e2d\u4e86\u3002\u6628\u5929\u8fd8\u5728\u5206\u6790Cricle\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u770b\u8d77\u6765circle\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3001\u7528\u9014\u3001\u97ed\u83dc\u3001\u7eaf\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1\u3001\u53d8\u73b0\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u4f4e\u4f30\u7ade\u4e89\u4e0a\u65e0\u7591\u8fd9\u516d\u70b9\u90fd\u5177\u5907\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u80a1\u4ef7\u4ece\u4e0a\u5e02\u540e300\u8dcc\u81f360\uff0c\u8dcc\u638980%\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4f46\u672a\u6765\u5462\uff1f\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u7ee7\u7eed\u53bb\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nMake no mistake, extensive competition leads to large-scale business model experimentation and is often very good for consumers, but it will depress security prices, and investors and policy makers need to be aware. The inability to foresee entry is common and pervasive.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6fc0\u70c8\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u5916\u5356\u5927\u6218\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u53d7\u635f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56e2\u80a1\u4e1c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nSuch statements had real and serious economic consequences as they fueled chicanery associated with bubbles. Policy makers need to exercise great caution when commenting on markets that are filled with novice investors. Their words will be given undue weight and can spark large market movements.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u76d1\u7ba1\u8005\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThat we get fooled is not surprising; narratives and stories are how we think. But with a better idea of how, when, and for whom these stories become costly, we can better avoid them.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u53d9\u4e8b\u548c\u6545\u4e8b\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u88ab\u9a97\u5c31\u5f88\u6b63\u5e38\u4e86\u3002\u6240\u9700\u8981\u505a\u7684\u662f\u719f\u6089\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5957\u8def\u6765\u907f\u514d\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u6700\u8fd1\u8bfb\u7684\u4e00\u672c\u5173\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u6280\u672f\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u547c\u5e94\u5206\u6790\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684AI\u70ed\u6f6e\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u8fd8\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8bf4\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\u548c […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-book"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6VzCl-sU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1801,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1801","url_meta":{"origin":1792,"position":0},"title":"2025\u5e74\u8bfb\u4e66\u56de\u987e","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2025 \u5e74 12 \u6708 31 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u8bfb\u4e66\u72b6\u6001\u611f\u53d7\u4e0b\u6765\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u6ca1\u6709\u7279\u522b\u628a\u8bfb\u4e66\u5f53\u6210\u76ee\u6807\u975e\u8981\u8bfb\u591a\u5c11\u672c\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u538b\u8feb\u611f\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u653e\u677e\u81ea\u5df1\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1348,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1348","url_meta":{"origin":1792,"position":1},"title":"2022\u5e74\u8bfb\u4e66\u56de\u987e","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2022 \u5e74 12 \u6708 30 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u9605\u8bfb\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u4e66\u4e2d\u603b\u80fd\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u6536\u83b7\u3002\u4e00\u5ea6\u559c\u6b22\u8bfb\u7eb8\u8d28\u4e66\uff0c\u7535\u5b50\u4e66\u8bfb\u7684\u5c11\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5927\u91cf\u7528I\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1093,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1093","url_meta":{"origin":1792,"position":2},"title":"\u300a\u6295\u8d44\uff1a\u5609\u4fe1\u7406\u8d22\u6301\u7eed\u521b\u65b0\u4e4b\u9053\u300b2113","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2021 \u5e74 7 \u6708 25 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u5609\u4fe1\u7406\u8d22\u521b\u59cb\u4ebaCharles Schwab\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u8bfb\u3002\u6536\u83b7\u8fd8\u662f\u86ee\u5927\u7684\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":768,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=768","url_meta":{"origin":1792,"position":3},"title":"\u65e5\u672c\u89c1\u95fb\uff08\u4e8c\uff09","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2017 \u5e74 1 \u6708 30 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"Hakuba\u4eca\u5929\u5f00\u59cb\u6dc5\u6dc5\u6ca5\u6ca5\u7684\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u51e0\u4e2a\u96ea\u573a\u8c8c\u4f3c\u8fd8\u5f00\u7740\uff0c\u5c0f\u767d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u592a\u613f\u610f\u53bb\u4e86\uff0c\u7d22\u6027\u4e0d\u5982\u5728\u9152\u5e97\u91cc\uff0c\u4f11\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1517,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1517","url_meta":{"origin":1792,"position":4},"title":"2023\u5e74\u8bfb\u4e66\u56de\u987e","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2024 \u5e74 1 \u6708 1 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u4eca\u5929\u662f\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5929\u4e86\uff0c\u5468\u672b\u8d76\u5b8c\u4e86\u56db\u4e94\u7bc7\u8bfb\u4e66\u7b14\u8bb0\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e0b\u6765\u4eca\u5e74\u8bfb\u4e66\u7b14\u8bb0\u5199\u4e8638\u7bc7\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u8bfb\u5b8c\u4e8640\u672c\u3002\u5e74\u521d\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1561,"url":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?p=1561","url_meta":{"origin":1792,"position":5},"title":"\u88ab\u8ffd\u8d76\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53 2410","author":"yizhayanorg@126.com","date":"2024 \u5e74 6 \u6708 10 \u65e5","format":false,"excerpt":"\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8870\u9000\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8f9c\u671d\u660e\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5168\u9762\u5730\u5206\u6790\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5728\u5176\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u5e94\u8be5\u7684\u8003\u8651\u3002\u5bf9\u5f53\u2026","rel":"","context":"\u5728\u201cBook\u201d\u4e2d","block_context":{"text":"Book","link":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/?cat=5"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1792"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1792\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1796,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1792\/revisions\/1796"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yizhayan.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}