Market Wizards: Converstations with America’s Top Traders, Jack D. Schwager<\/p>\n
\u975e\u5e38\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u4e66\uff0c\u7ecf\u5178\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u5185\u5bb9\u8db3\u591f\u591a\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u9876\u7ea7\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u8bbf\u8c08\uff0c\u5f88\u7cbe\u5f69\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u8db3\u591f\u591a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7cbe\u9ad3\u5c45\u7136\u5982\u6b64\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6a21\u4eff\u548c\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6700\u4e3a\u96be\u5f97\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u4e86\u3002\u4e09\u662f\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u548c\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u6765\u5370\u8bc1\u7b2c\u4e8c\u70b9\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u8c01\u662f\u5929\u751f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7684\u4e8f\u635f\u751a\u81f3\u7206\u4ed3\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u4f4e\u8c37\u4ee5\u540e\u624d\u5f00\u59cb\u614e\u91cd\u5730\u770b\u5f85\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u5e76\u5b8c\u5584\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u5b9e\u73b0\u6301\u7eed\u76c8\u5229\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u5fc5\u7ecf\u4e4b\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7ecf\u5178\u53ef\u501f\u9274\u4e4b\u5904\u7b80\u8981\u6458\u5f55\u4e00\u4e8c\u5e76\u8bc4\u8bba\u5982\u4e0b\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\u987b\u5bf9\u6b64\u505a\u51fa\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u5438\u6536\u548c\u501f\u9274\u3002<\/p>\n
Michael Marcus, \u6293\u4f4f\u4e86\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u201c\u7269\u4ef7\u51bb\u7ed3\u201d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7ba1\u5236\u89e3\u9664\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u53d7\u7ba1\u5236\u7684\u73b0\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\u96be\u5f97\u4e00\u89c1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u8fd8\u771f\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5b58\u5728\u4e0e\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u5c31\u66f4\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4e24\u9762\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u9762\u662f\u7ba1\u5236\uff0c\u4e00\u9762\u662f\u5229\u6da6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9009\u62e9\u6f5c\u529b\u80a1\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0cCANSLIM\uff0cC\u662fCurrent EPS\uff0c\u98d9\u6da8\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4e00\u822c\u5b63\u5ea6EPS\u6bd4\u53bb\u5e74\u6da870%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5e94\u8be5\u9ad8\u51fa20-50%\uff1bA\u662fAnnual EPS\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u597d\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5728\u53d1\u52a8\u524d5\u5e74\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74EPS\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a24%\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u8981\u4fdd\u6301\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6307\u6570\u6700\u597d\u572895\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1bN\u4ee3\u8868New\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u8981\u6709\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u65b0\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u65b0\u4ea7\u4e1a\u8d8b\u52bf\u6216\u8005\u65b0\u7ecf\u8425\u7b56\u7565\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u80a1\u4ef7\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\u4e5f\u7b97\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u90fd\u4e0d\u613f\u8fdb\u573a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u8fd8\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u6da8\uff1bS\u4ee3\u8868\u4ee3\u8868\u5728\u5916\u6d41\u901a\u80a1\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u9ad8\u4e8e2500\u4e07\u80a1\uff1bL\u4ee3\u8868\u9886\u5148\u80a1\uff0c\u672c\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5f31\u6307\u6570\u572880\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u7968\uff1bI\u4ee3\u8868\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u673a\u6784\u6301\u80a1\u4e0d\u591f\u91cd\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u662f\u4e70\u5165\u592a\u665a\u4e86\uff1bM\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u638c\u63e1\u5927\u76d8\u6bcf\u65e5\u7684\u6307\u6570\u6da8\u8dcc\u548c\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u53d8\u52a8\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u9009\u80a1\u7684\u6700\u597d\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0cCANSLIM\uff0c\u65b0\u884c\u4e1a\u65b0\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff1bEPS\u5b63\u5ea6\u589e\u5e4550%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1bEPS\u8fde\u7eed\u5e74\u589e\u957f\uff1b1\u4ebf\u80a1\u4ee5\u4e0b\u80a1\u672c\uff1b\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5f3180\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1b\u673a\u6784\u6301\u80a1\u4e2d\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u662f\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u8981\u8d85\u8fc7\u5168\u90e8\u8d44\u91d1\u76845%\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6bcf\u6b21\u8fdb\u573a\u4e4b\u524d\u90fd\u8981\u5b9a\u4e0b\u51fa\u573a\u7684\u4ef7\u4f4d\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\u6b62\u635f\u76d8\u8981\u5b9a\u5728\u56fe\u6807\u4e0a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4ef7\u4f4d\u4e4b\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n
\u65b0\u624b\u5e94\u8be5\u5148\u5b66\u4f1a\u63a7\u5236\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5c11\u91cf\u4ed3\u4f4d\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u6301\u6709\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u90fd\u5148\u780d\u53bb\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9519\u8fc7\u7684\u4fbf\u662f\u6c38\u6052\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8f93\u6389\u7684\u94b1\u4e0d\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u5c1d\u8bd5\u52a0\u7801\u6765\u8d5a\u56de\uff0c\u5343\u4e07\u4e0d\u8981\u5728\u4e00\u68f5\u6811\u4e0a\u540a\u6b7b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5f53\u64cd\u76d8\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u5999\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u964d\u4f4e\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff0c\u5f53\u60c5\u51b5\u6e10\u5165\u4f73\u5883\u662f\u65f6\u52a0\u4ed3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6301\u6709\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5f00\u59cb\u4e8f\u635f\uff0c\u522b\u72b9\u8c6b\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u51fa\u573a\u89c2\u671b\uff0c\u8010\u5fc3\u7b49\u5f85\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\u53ef\u4ee5\u968f\u65f6\u518d\u5165\u573a\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u591a\u7a7a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5c3d\u91cf\u5728\u5f53\u5929\u4e34\u6536\u76d8\u65f6\u8fdb\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u539f\u5219\u65f6\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u8981\u5f3a\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u63a7\u5236\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u653b\u51fb\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5f3a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d5a\u591a\u5c11\u94b1\u3002\u6211\u8fdb\u884c\u6bcf\u4e00\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u603b\u4f1a\u5047\u8bbe\u81ea\u5df1\u6301\u6709\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\uff0c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u505c\u635f\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u65e2\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5168\u8eab\u800c\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8d8b\u52bf\u8ffd\u8e2a\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u6280\u672f\u5f62\u6001\u5206\u6790\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u98ce\u683c\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u8f93\u8d62\uff0c\u6211\u90fd\u4eab\u53d7\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7ecf\u5e38\u4fdd\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u65ad\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u4e0d\u65ad\u5b8c\u5584\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u878d\u4e3a\u4e00\u4f53\uff0c\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0e\u64cd\u4f5c\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u5957\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u4e00\u5957\u6cd5\u5219\u884c\u4e8b\u3002\u4eab\u53d7\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7f13\u89e3\u4ea4\u6613\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5e73\u8861\u5de5\u4f5c\u5fc3\u6001\u662f\u767b\u4e0a\u6210\u529f\u9876\u5cf0\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6700\u9700\u8981\u5177\u5907\u7684\u8981\u7d20\u5c31\u662f\u6b62\u635f\uff0c\u6b62\u635f\uff0c\u6b62\u635f\u3002\u624b\u6c14\u5f88\u5dee\u65f6\u5c31\u964d\u4f4e\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u505c\u6b62\u6240\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4f11\u606f\u81c6\u65ad\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u539f\u5219\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u51cf\u5c11\u4e8f\u635f\uff0c\u4e58\u80dc\u8ffd\u51fb\uff0c\u5c0f\u4ed3\u4f4d\u7ecf\u8425\uff0c\u4e0d\u6253\u6298\u6263\u6267\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u6cd5\u5219\u3002\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u5728\u4e4e\u6bcf\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u7edd\u5bf9\u91cd\u89c6\u63a7\u5236\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6bcf\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7edd\u4e0d\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u603b\u8d44\u4ea7\u76841%\u3002\u8ddf\u7740\u8d8b\u52bf\u8d70\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u4fe1\u4efb\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5965\u5c3c\u5c14\uff0c\u4e0a\u6da8\u6f5c\u529b\u96c4\u539a\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u8dcc\u5230\u8c37\u5e95\u7684\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u4e70\u5165\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u521b\u4e0b\u65b0\u9ad8\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u8981\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u98d9\u6da8\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u82b1\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u53bb\u7b49\u5f85\u4ed6\u8dcc\u5230\u6700\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\u80a1\u5e02\u53d6\u80dc\u7684\u79d8\u8bc0\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u9009\u4e2d\u597d\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u9009\u9519\u80a1\u7968\u65f6\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u4e8f\u635f\u964d\u5230\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u8fdb\u573a\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0b\u632b\u5230\u6211\u8bbe\u5b9a\u76847%\u7684\u6b62\u635f\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8d2d\u4e70\u4ef7\u683c\u8d85\u8fc7\u6700\u8fd1\u5e95\u90e810%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u5f53\u80a1\u7968\u5411\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4e14\u6709\u610f\u52a0\u901f\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u5e94\u8be5\u6bd4\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u9ad8\u51fa50%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6301\u6709\u4ed3\u4f4d\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8981\u68c0\u67e5\u5176\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u662f\u5426\u9ad8\u8fc7\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u613f\u8fdd\u80cc\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f4e\u4e8e\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd8\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u7ad9\u7a33\u518d\u5165\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
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