Zone to Win 2240

年末补一篇笔记。很不错的书,把业务分区管理,设定不同的策略和模式,给出的答案非常具有可操作性,是很值得学习的,特别是对于公司业务的转型安排等。照例做些摘要。

Zone management is about dividing and conquering, establishing independent zones, each with what at Salesforce we call a V2MOM—Vision, Values, Methods, Obstacles, and Measures. Disruptive innovation—incubating or scaling new products or business opportunities—must be segregated from sustaining innovation—making improvements to existing entities. And, revenue performance—financial commitments from the more established parts of the business—must be separated from enabling investments—funding and resourcing new product and businesses opportunities. The zones act in parallel and interoperate with each other, but not in lockstep.

孵化破坏性创新的新业务必须和现有的持续创新业务隔离开来;主要抓收入的业务要和正在投资培育的业务隔离开来。

Adding a new line of business to an existing portfolio creates a crisis of prioritization. Such efforts are easy to get started, but as momentum begins to build it becomes increasingly clear that there are not going to be enough resources to go around, so how are they going to get allocated?

At the core of this crisis of prioritization is a battle for resources in the go-to-market functions—sales, marketing, professional services, and partner development. To add a net new line of business to the portfolio, the enterprise has to stretch its go-to-market capacity dramatically to meet the needs of both its established businesses and its next-generation initiatives. It turns out, however, not only are there not enough resources to go around, there is no efficient way to expand them. Here’s why. Marketing, selling, servicing, and partnering in any emerging category are radically inefficient processes, especially when compared to established lines of business. For starters, prospective customers have no budget allocated for the new category of offering—it is simply too new.

增加新业务的核心问题其实是和现有业务在各类资源上的实际冲突。几乎无法调和。

First things first: When it comes to making a big bet on your next big thing, pick one. Not two, not three—one. This is the single most important job a CEO has. Choose one thing to be your enterprise’s next big thing, and then deliver on that future—to customers, to shareholders, to partners, to employees, and to your industry as a whole. If someone questions you putting all your eggs in one basket, just tell them, “In our company we like to lay eggs one at a time. By the way, we find most chickens do too.

If your company could catch a new wave just once in a decade, it would be world-class.

His core principle was: “We have one team working on one thing.” They were torn between funding the current business and backing the next big thing, and they did not want to put all their eggs in one basket. So they peanut-buttered their resource allocations, making sure every credible disruptive innovation got its fair share of support, but always with a tilt toward making the number on the back of the established lines of business. That by default is a kind of prioritization in its own right, but it is a painfully wasteful one, since it absolutely guarantees you will never catch the next wave, even as you spend all your scarce discretionary resources under the pretense that you can.

当有大机会来临的时候,CEO一定要选一个然后坚定执行下去,不要贪多。把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里,然后把母鸡盯紧。不孤注一掷,什么都想要,最终是注定要失败的。

In the interests of public safety and managerial sanity, let me share a secret with you: No established enterprise can reasonably expect to change its core business model, ever. All that stuff about how you have to learn to disrupt yourself—it’s baloney. It can’t be done.

To be frank, we have spent the last several decades acting out Einstein’s famous definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

人类一直在做蠢事,企业管理上也是。

It is based on dividing enterprise management into four zones. Each zone has its own distinctive dynamics—one for revenue performance in the current year, one for productivity initiatives to foster and fuel that performance, one for incubating future innovations, and one for taking such innovations to scale.

The sustaining side of this model is the home of established franchises and their operating models, the return-on-investment focus being on Horizon 1. Their revenue performance obligation is to “make the number,” and they are supported in doing so by a variety of enabling investments in shared services. The disruptive side, by contrast, is the domain of emerging businesses. They are gestated as a set of enabling investments in Horizon 3, where fast failure is often a virtue. When it is time to choose one of these to bring to scale, however, management takes on a mission-critical obligation to generate revenue at a material level, nominally 10 percent or more of total enterprise top line, thereby embracing the challenge of Horizon 2.

The Performance Zone:The importance of maintaining the viability of the performance zone can hardly be overstated. It is the source of more than 90 percent of the enterprise’s revenues and well north of 100 percent of its profits. Its health is measured by financial operating ratios, resource allocation hurdles, performance metrics, and the like. The return-on-investment focus is always Horizon 1.

The Productivity Zone:The normal challenge for the productivity zone is to manage the tensions among its three core deliverables—compliance, efficiency, and effectiveness—without subordinating any one of them to the other two.

The Incubation Zone:Its charter is a simple one: Position the enterprise to catch the next wave. This is the domain of Horizon 3, where revenues for this zone’s portfolio are in aggregate no more than 1-2% of the enterprise’s total top line. It is important to take the time to secure buy-in to the situation at hand.

The transformation zone is the place in an established enterprise where a disruptive business model goes to be scaled to material size. It is primarily a tool for offense, the goal being to scale rapidly to a stable, material, net new line of business, one that constitutes 10% or more of the enterprise’s current revenues, on a growth trajectory that promises both increased size and superior profitability.

按连续性创新/破坏性创新、业绩表现/增强性投资两条线划分为:业绩区、效率区、过渡区、孵化区四个分区,业绩区专注现有业务的业绩,效率区专注现有业务的持续创新、加强投资来实现更好业务、过渡区是已经收入达到10%比例的新业务,重点规模化;孵化区是完全孵化破坏性创新的新业务。所以从收入上看,重点是加强现有业务的收入,也加强新业务收入;从投资上看,重点是孵化未来,也加强现有业务的效率。

Overall, the four zones should always be operating in harmony. During periods of stability, when the transformation zone is dormant, the performance zone is funding the entire operation, with help from the productivity zone, paving the way for the incubation zone, building up whatever reserves it can for the next transformation. During a zone offense, the transformation zone rules the roost, its priorities trumping all others, with the performance zone coming in second, the productivity zone third, and the incubation zone last.

优先级排序:过渡区代表未来,第一优先;业绩区第二,效率加强区第三,孵化区第四。

Each IOU is subject to a venture-funding discipline that requires meeting specific milestones in order to secure the next round, typically along the following lines: Initial seed round: Validate the technology;Series A round: Build a minimum viable product and validate the market;Series B round: Target a beachhead market, build a viable whole-product solution, and win a dominant share of new sales within that segment;Series C round: Scale into adjacent markets in preparation for an exit into the transformation zone.

种子轮验证技术原理,A轮建立MVP原型验证市场,B轮建立立足点,C轮扩大优势争取进入过渡区。

The CEO’s first task here is to pick one—and only one—business to scale. As we have said repeatedly, allowing two or more entities into the transformation zone at the same time is a showstopper.

Activate the productivity zone. All cost centers must continually fight the battle of the bulge, and the annual planning process is the place to start. This is where zero-based budgeting makes sense.

CEO要做出单一选择,不能多选。

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《理性乐观派》2239

年末收尾补笔记的书。道理基本都在书名里了,读起来比较轻松,选择若干历史无非是描述这件事,确实乐观是人的生物性的一部分,写进基因里的东西。过度悲观会抑郁,严重会成为疾病,甚至会自杀;但没听说过度乐观会怎样,顶多被认为是神经病或者阿Q而已。

照例做些简单摘要。

现代世界的吊诡:人们一方面拥抱技术变革,一方面却又痛恨它们。“人不喜欢变化,”迈克尔·克莱顿说,“只有很小的一部分人才真正为技术的概念感到兴奋,其余人都给变化弄得很沮丧、很懊恼。”发明家之伤就是这样。他们是社会致富的源头,可没人喜欢他们做的事。

 什么才是推动了现代世界的创新永动机的飞轮呢?为什么创新成了惯例,它又是怎样应了阿弗烈·诺夫·怀海德的这句话呢:“19世纪最伟大的发明,就是发明方法的发明。”

乔尔·莫基尔就说过:“繁荣和成功带来了各种各样的天敌,养鹅人最终把能下金蛋的鹅给杀死了。”创新的火焰一次次地燃起又熄灭——直到从其他的地方再冒出来。好消息是,总有一把新的火炬燃起来。到目前为止是这样。

真正专注于发明、创新的人过去都是人中的极少数派,被认为是异端,不被喜欢。发明方法的发明,就是科学的发现。

最佳创新行业的发展历程大致如下:1800年,纺织业;1830年,铁路;1860年,化工业;1890年,电力;1920年,汽车;1950年,飞机;1980年,计算机;2010年,网络。19世纪冒出了大量运输人的新途径(铁路、自行车、汽车、轮船),20世纪则冒出了传输信息的新途径(电话、广播、电视、卫星、传真、互联网、手机)。

对蒸汽机做出最大改进的4个人(托马斯·纽科门、詹姆斯·瓦特、理查德·特里维西克和乔治·史蒂芬孙)里,有3个完全不懂任何科学理论,至于最后一个瓦特,是否受过理论的影响,历史学家们至今莫衷一是。靠着他们的努力,真空理论和热力学定律才有可能出现,而不是反过来。就算今天,科学家们的真正工作仍然是跟上技术修补匠们的脚步,在他们发现新东西之后提出解释。

大多数技术变革来自对现有技术的改进尝试,这是不可回避的事实。车间里的机械师会做这种事,办公室里电脑程序的用户也会做这种事,只有很少一部分技术变革来自应用和转换象牙塔里的知识。

真正的技术变革往往是改进型的创新,不是原生的创新。甚至部分理论发现都依赖于此。技术的本质中也反复讲这个道理。

对于是什么推动了创新引擎这个问题,金钱或许是答案。就像硅谷风险投资家们说的那样,激励创新的办法,就是把资本和人才拉到一起。在历史的大多数时期,人类对维持自身所长都是挺拿手的。发明家们总能找到钱来支持自己。18世纪英国的一大优势就在于,它积累了一笔通过对外贸易创造的集体财富,又建立了比较有效的资本市场来把资金分配给创新家。

20世纪90年代,各国政府都把精力投入到高清电视标准、互动电视、远程办公和虚拟现实等死胡同里,而技术却无声无息地开始探索无线宽带(Wi-Fi)、宽带和移动电话的未知空间。创新不是一个能预测的产业,它可不太爱听从政府官员的吩咐。所以,虽说政府可以出钱要人们去发现新技术(卫星导航系统和互联网都是其他项目的副产品),但它并不是大多数创新的源头。

财富激励创新。政府的作用没那么大,有时候反而会指错方向。当然也有对的时候。

驱动现代经济的创新永动机能问世,主要不靠科学(相反,科学倒是受了创新永动机不少恩惠),不靠金钱(金钱并不总是限制因素),不靠专利(专利经常挡了创新的路),不靠政府(政府才不擅长创新呢)。它完全不是一种自上而下的过程。现在,我想要说服你接受如下观点:只要一个词就能解释这道难题——交换。思想观念日益频繁的交换带来了现代世界速度日益加快的创新。

技术源自把现有技术会聚成一个大于部分和的整体。亨利·福特曾经坦率地承认,他根本没有发明什么新东西,“只是把数百年来其他人的发明组装成了一辆车”。所以,光从设计上看,就知道一种物体是从其他哪种物体来的:观念催生了其他的观念。

信息交流带来真正的创新。

但直到90年代罗默提出“新增长理论”,经济学才彻底回到了现实世界:在这个世界里,凡是能通过新产品或新服务满足需求的人,创新永动机就会让他通过暂时垄断,实现短期的利润爆炸,同时,其他所有最终得以分享“溢出”概念的人,则实现爆发式长期增长。

罗伯特·索洛得出结论,凡是无法通过劳动力、土地或资本增加解释的发展,都是创新的功劳;但他认为创新是一种外部力量,是某些经济体比其他地方多出来的一点点侥幸——这跟穆勒的理论有着异曲同工之妙。诸如气候、地理和政治制度等东西,决定了创新的速度(地处热带的非洲内陆国家可走了厄运了),而这些东西,人们改变不了太多。罗默认为,创新本身就是投资项目,新的应用知识就是产品。所以,只要愿意花钱尝试寻找新思想的人在传递知识之前能从中获利,就有可能实现收益递增。

创新这件事是写入增长模型的。

人类社会是一段漫长历史的产物,它通过对有别于遗传变异的文化变异进行自然选择而演进出来,是靠着个体交换的无形之手生成的突变次序,而不是自上而下的决定论产物。正如性行为积累了生物演进,交换也积累了文化演进、形成了集体智慧,故此,隐藏在混乱行为底下的男女关系其实蕴涵着一股必然的潮流。它是迎头向前的涨潮,而非势如山倒的退潮。

在假定技术不发生变化的前提下预测未来,是一种常见的伎俩,会让人觉得未来非常可怕。这没错。倘若发明和创造停止了,未来的确非常可怕。正如保罗·罗默所说:“每一代人都觉得,要是发现不了新食谱、提不出新想法,有限的资源和不良的副作用就会为发展设下限制。可每一代人也都低估了找到新食谱、提出新想法的潜力。我们从来无法弄清,到底还有多少新的想法有待发现。”

人类的本性不会改变。侵略和上瘾、迷恋与教化、魅力和伤害,这些老一套总会登场,可未来的世界却将更加繁荣。在桑顿·怀尔德的剧作《九死一生》里,安特罗比斯家庭(代表人类)努力在冰河时代、洪水和世界大战里求生存,但他们的本性并没有改变。怀尔德认为,历史本身并不是圆圈,而是螺旋向上,好坏双方的能力都不断增长,并通过永不改变的个人性格展现出来。故此,尽管会出现许多挫折,尽管个体的不变本性也在演进,可人类这一种群却会继续扩展并丰富自身的文化。21世纪会是值得活一次的宏伟时代。”

混乱的男女关系居然被解释为一种社会的进步力量,哈哈。进步是人类永恒的文化的一部分。

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