石油故事
石油的故事也非常有趣，一条是公司线，从标准石油到壳牌、到埃克森、美孚等诸多家。巨头的出现其实是市场恶性竞争之后市场集中和合并的结果，最特别的就是洛克菲勒的果断持续收购。一条是技术线，从采掘，到提炼煤油、重油，把废物汽油再利用的过程。煤油一出现就陆续淘汰了鲸油、煤基煤油；海军的动力系统从燃煤机组到重油机组、到汽油机组的变化。
By Monday, when Drake returned to the site, he was welcomed by all manner of receptacles filled with the same liquid. A hand pump was attached and Drake was able to do exactly what his critics had said was impossible: to pump oil directly out of the ground. The area had begun the journey to its eventual christening as Oil Creek.
1859年，第一桶石油的发现。把石油泵出地面也一度是没人敢信的事情。
Inevitably, given such a surge in supply, in the short-term prices dropped precipitously. These prices drove many producers into bankruptcy, but those who survived would become rich. While the low prices caused difficulties for the producers, they also made kerosene derived from rock oil highly competitive, driving out coal oil, whale oil and other illuminants.
石油的英文真是Rock Oil，好硬的翻译。石油发现之后带来的并不是财富，而是马上的供给过剩和价格暴跌，让许多人的财富化为乌有。但暴跌也有其好处，让从石油中提炼出来的煤油极具竞争力，消灭了鲸油和煤炭提炼的煤油。
In 1866 oil prices fell to a low of $2.40 a barrel. Producers in Oil Creek reacted in time-honored fashion to the damaging price decline caused by overproduction, and sought to reduce output.
The mechanism for achieving this was a cartel arrangement which allocated production limits among members, thus providing greater stability and rising prices. Unfortunately for the producers, the law of capture and the relatively low barriers to entry created a market structure so fragmented that cooperation in production could never be sustained.
石油卡特尔的形成居然不是为了垄断利润，而是为了活下去。多么有意思的历史事实。为了活下去，大家开始协议限产来维持价格，可惜当年的石油门槛太低、市场太分散，这种合作无法持续。
Faced with the volatile prices of crude oil, Rockefeller quickly determined to concentrate on the marginally less voltaic refining business.
洛克菲勒当年也是受不了油价的大幅波动才开始进入波动没那么大的石油加工业。
William Rockefeller’s functions to appraise his brother’s buyers of price movements in New York to help protect them from such fluctuations. His other important function was to secure additional lines of credit on Wall Street, a vital feature for an enterprise in an industry so prone to boom and bust.
钱袋子就是命根子。洛克菲勒兄弟两个，一个搞业务，一个在纽约搞融资，绝配。成功果然都不是偶然的。
Flagler soon negotiated a rebate deal with the railroads that was to cement the future of the venture.
But for Rockefeller and Flagler, it was the opportunity that eventually allowed them to dominate the industry. The key was their understanding that the threat they faced as refiners and suppliers of goods to be transported was no greater than the threat the transporters faced themselves from rival routes. Recognising this, they were able to turn the situation to their advantage and negotiate a deal with Jay Gould which provided them with a majority shareholding in the Allegheny Transportation Company, the first pipeline out of Oil Creek. As a result, they were able to ship oil on the Erie rail system at a 75% discount to their competitors. They then used the negotiating power this gave them to arrange a 30% discount with Vanderbilt’s railroad, the New York Central System.
洛克菲勒也需要Flagler这样关键的合伙人才能成就自己。分析清楚铁路们面临的巨大竞争压力，可以拿下75%的运费折扣进而碾压同行，形成巨大优势。有时候，能够洞穿事实就极为关键。
There were physical as well as commercial risks to face, too, in the shape of frequent fires involving waste products in the refining process, which poured into adjoining rivers and were frequently ignited by passing ships. The waste product would in time come to be known as gasoline, a product that was to have an even greater economic value than kerosene.
今天熟悉的汽油，居然是当年石油化工的废料。
Crude oil was in overproduction and it was estimated that refining capacity was three times the market’s requirements. As a consequence, the price of kerosene halved. The relatively low cost of entry and the lure of high profits and a quick return on investment produced a fragmented and oversupplied business. In 1870 Rockefeller estimated that 90% of refineries were making losses. Despite his initial deals with the railroads, Rockefeller was still faced with an industry structure that militated against stability.
洛克菲勒面临的环境也真是不容易，简直是多少次死里逃生的感觉：当时原油过剩，炼化产能三倍过剩，中端产品煤油的价格腰斩。想冲进来赚快钱的被纷纷搞死。90%的炼化都是亏损的。其实1870年标准石油成立，立马面对的就是1873年前后的大经济危机。
1872 The market for kerosene continued to deteriorate and prices dropped a further 25%, causing some competitors to declare bankruptcy. Standard Oil, however, managed to remain profitable and declare dividends while at the same time expanding and strengthening its position through discreet purchases of refineries and related businesses.
市场继续恶化，价格再跌25%，同行大量破产。只有标准石油能保持利润，还持续分红，同时不断收购扩张。这么恶劣的市场环境下能够有能力持续扩张，真是难得的天才和胆量，更难得的是能力。所以并购其实不是一件简单的事情，要寻求时机，要在时机成熟时敢于下手。太难了。有钱就去并购，纯粹是博傻。
The incentive to pump oil and take a ‘free ride’ on the cartel’s restricted production and higher prices was too great to be ignored. The so-called ‘Treaty of Titusville’, signed in New York in December 1872, survived only until January 1873. This was to be Rockefeller’s last attempt at ‘voluntary’ restraint。
自愿限产是无法达成一致的，这是人性。洛克菲勒1873年就看清楚了这一点，没有花太多时间。
This took place in September 1873 and was an early indicator of financial troubles, including widespread insolvency, defaults on railroad bonds, liquidation of banks and the temporary closure of the stock exchange. Over the next six years the US economy fell into a slump, with huge unemployment and wage deflation of almost 25%.
In the refining industry, with the crude oil price down to 48 cents a barrel (below the cost of water in some areas), Rockefeller’s access to cash made him unstoppable.
2.4就够低了，还能再跌80%也是绝了，跌到0.48美元/桶。这种价格下还能从银行获得信贷，持续收购，才是真正的成功点。
Standard Oil’s reach was long, but it was not long enough to break the political and financial support for Shell in Britain.
标准石油和壳牌之间的竞争，实际是商业触碰不了政治和金融，商业上极其常见，商业有其自身的边界。
Shell had an agreement with the Rothchilds to access crude oil supply from the Russian Empire, and this was then refined and shipped to Asia. Initially its principal competitor had been Standard Oil, but increasingly Royal Dutch had eaten into its Asian market and profitability.Royal Dutch was also worried because its oilfields in Sumatra appeared to be running dry.
壳牌的起家，是和罗斯柴尔德勾搭好能从俄国进口原油，然后出口到亚洲。对手是标准石油和皇家荷兰。
Eventually, in late 1901, Standard Oil offered to take over Shell at a price of $40m ($2.7bn). However, Marcus’s pride and nationalistic bent prevented him from accepting the offer. To have done so would have ended his control of the company and passed it into the hands of an American competitor. Instead he negotiated with Henri Deterding of Royal Dutch, and the result was an organisation managed by Deterding, but which was to be an equal partnership between the two companies, including the Rothschilds as partners. The new entity was to be named British Dutch.
辛丑条约的当年，标准石油差点就收购了壳牌，取而代之的是壳牌和荷兰皇家合并成了英国荷兰石油，今天的壳牌。
Shell had had high hopes of recruiting Britain’s Royal Navy as a substantial customer, as the trend seemed to be moving towards using oil-powered engines for ships. However, these hopes were dashed when the Navy elected to continue with coal as its propulsion fuel.
壳牌当年竞争英国海军的订单，正赶上海军军舰动力换成重油驱动。没想到的是海军还是继续用煤了。商业上这样的故事其实每天都在上演，趋势面前其实并不是大家都要第一时间上船的。
By the early 1900s, Standard Oil had lost its virtual monopoly of global oil. In Asia and Europe it had to contend with Shell and Royal Dutch, and in its own backyard new competitors had sprung up with the discoveries outside Pennsylvania.
三十年后的1900年，标准石油已经垄断不在了，欧洲亚洲有壳牌、荷兰石油；美国也有宾州之外的对手了。
Its structure, effectively a holding company with operating subsidiaries, was a model subsequently adopted by most major corporations. At the time in America, such a structure ran foul of the state-based legislative framework and it came repeatedly under attack as a consequence.
标准石油的架构改成了控股架构，下面子公司为运营实体。这种结构后来普遍被使用。
The implied price-earnings multiple was between eight and ten times the following year’s earnings. The price at which private trades took place in the stock implied a secure dividend yield of 7%.
1900年前后的P/E水平就是次年利润的8-10倍，7%的分红水平。
Standard Oil was given six months from 21 June 1911 to complete the dissolution process.
The company was subdivided, largely according to its geographic operating units. The original holding company became Standard Oil of New Jersey (Exxon) and was by some distance the largest single entity, accounting for over 40% of the assets of the trust. The next largest operation was Standard Oil of New York (Mobil), with approximately 10%. Other companies included: Standard Oil of California (Chevron), Standard Oil of Ohio (Sohio, which later became a division of BP, subsequently BP Amoco), Standard Oil of Indiana (Amoco), Continental Oil (Conoco) and Atlantic Oil (ARCO). The stock market listing of these companies, though, was not to take place until after World War I.
辛亥革命的当年标准石油进行了分拆，也是公司成立四十年后的事情了，分出来埃克森占40%、美孚10%、雪佛龙、BP Amoco、Conoco、ARCO六七家。所以后来埃克森美孚一合并，又是大巨头了。
The concern over the economic benefits of the breakup neglected the changing demand characteristics associated with the automobile and oil-powered shipping, particularly on the military side.
Net income for Standard Oil of California was ten times higher in 1920 than it was in 1911 and even if this figure was abnormally high, the growth rate was certainly not much less than 30% comparable per annum. Unocal’s stock note by contrast has roughly half that level. What is more, the growth in net income of Standard Oil had not been achieved at the expense of a weakened balance sheet or shareholder dilution. The Standard Oil shareholder had been rewarded with a consistently high cash dividend and frequent stock distributions. At the end of the period, therefore, the net assets of Standard Oil were more than two and a half times those of Unocal. It might have been a growing history, but there were very different returns to be earned by different companies. Those who doubted the ability of Standard Oil subsidiaries when out from under the umbrella of the trust were proved definitively wrong.
拆分完成后的10年，埃克森公司的利润增长了10倍，年增长接近30%。拆分并没有改变洛克菲勒的实力。
Knowledge of the chemistry of rock oil was new, however, and it led to the creation of an entire new industry. This industry operated in a largely unregulated environment and for an extended period was characterised by price volatility and excess supply。
监管一定程度上是好事，石油一开始的开采没有监管，才出现了巨大的波动和过量供给。
The power of the trust came not from control of production but from the strength of its negotiating position with the providers of distribution。
洛克菲勒的垄断，其垄断力的来源并不是控制了产能，而是能和上下游有很强的谈判力，这个结果还是很吃惊的。
The extended survival of AT&T as a single entity, by contrast, rested upon the company’s awareness that its future was dependent upon arriving at an accommodation with the authorities.
标准石油还是没有像AT&T当年把未来看的那么透，能通过和政府的妥协保持独立。
Not only did Standard Oil became a giant company in the oil industry, the recycling of its profits made it one of the largest financial concerns in the world and at the same time propelled its bank, which ultimately became Citibank, into the upper leagues of financial institutions.
标准石油的成功没想到还带出了一家巨大的银行：花旗。这等历史故事真是极其精彩。