Engines That Move Markets 2123-2

本来计划3篇写完的,摘录完铁路的故事就感觉草率了。干脆不设限制,读到哪写到哪儿吧。

电报的故事

For all the rapid gains in revenue, the mail service represented a lucrative extra rather than a key revenue stream for the railways.

铁路的出现瓦解了原先用马传递的邮政系统,邮政服务给铁路贡献了不少收入。

The telegraph companies were already in receipt of large government subsidies by the time the Civil War broke out. The Pacific Telegraph Act of 1860 provided for up to $40,000 ($5m) per annum in subsidies to telegraph companies in return for transmission of federal messages.

电报产业也得到了大量的政府补贴,虽然在南北战争时期更容易理解。

Even in 1880 Western Union accounted for 80% of America’s telegraph traffic, but with the absorption of B&O, Western Union effectively was the telegraph industry.

西联彻底控制了电报行业,实现垄断。

Ultimately Western Union’s success depended upon two things: the outcome of a series of lawsuits regarding the ownership of the patents on improvements to the telegraph, and a dominant position in the physical ownership of the network. These two aspects were linked, in the sense that without the Western Union patents, ownership of the cables was of little value. There was also some luck. Western Union’s industry dominance had made it careless about protecting its rights.

专利权和线路网络优势帮助西联实现了真正的成功。但也是把双刃剑。和爱迪生关系搞僵后赔了不少钱。

Learning these lessons proved an expensive exercise. Fatally for Western Union, the company did not see the technology shift that would make its patents obsolete. At the time, the potential challenge from the telephone must have seemed remote to a company which had achieved a dominant position in its own new form of information transfer. Not only did it dominate its industry, it also had on its books the most eminent and successful scientists of the age. Western Union’s internal records show that it saw the telephone as only a peripheral threat. It also assumed that should such a threat emerge, the company’s scientific resources and its financial strength would give it the strength to resist. Since the company was in perhaps its most prosperous phase, with strong revenue and profits growth, such a view was not unreasonable. But as history was to prove, it was completely misplaced.”

西联万万没想到的是自己的专利会随着时代变迁过期。西联也看到了电话的威胁,但认为不值得重视,这么简单的看法直接断送了一个时代。而这样的故事还不止于此,反复再上演。

Unfortunately for Bell, the patent was never filed in Britain and thus he failed to obtain protection in the richest market in the world, albeit one where communication was controlled by the public sector.

贝尔公司当年的专利没在英国搞定,直接失去了英国这个最肥的市场。英国市场一向是政府手里的。

The telephone was demonstrated by the difficulty Bell’s colleagues had in raising funds to develop the business. Bell was forced to spend much of his time marketing the new invention, to convince potential backers as to its technical viability and its practical use. Public demonstrations were set up in the presence of venerable scientists, such as Sir William Thomson connecting Boston and New York and conducting a conversation between Bell and Watson. In October 1876 they followed this up with demonstrations between Boston and Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Bell’s marketing campaign included such ‘stunts’ as using 16 Yale professors rather than a wire and letting the current carrying his conversation flow through their bodies. Despite these efforts, it took until May 1877 for the first telephones to be leased. The sum paid was $20 ($1,500). By August the number of telephones in use had expanded to 778 and it became necessary to enter into a more formal business agreement. The Bell Telephone Association was created, with Bell, Hubbard and Sanders each receiving 30% of the shares and Thomas Watson 10%. At that time the venture had no subscribed capital; it had effectively been bankrolled by Sanders, who had signed notes totalling in excess of $110,000 (nearly $10m) and was himself close to bankruptcy.

The investing environment of the time was not conducive to raising capital. Recent great leaps forward in technology had created an earlier bubble; when this burst, it resulted in substantial losses for many investors, leaving the public soured with promises of future advances. Even though Bell’s demonstrations attracted favourable press comment, funds were not readily forthcoming. The disasters, bankruptcies and scandals that followed the financing of the railroads were still fresh in investors’ minds. It required more than a concept, however well marketed, to attract funds. The euphoria which surrounded the railroads and which allowed both the overbuilding and the lack of financial or management controls had evaporated.

贝尔的这段创业还真不容易,刚刚铁路狂潮过去,投资人还没痛的醒过神来就来融资,难度自然是极大的。贝尔公司的原始股权架构很有意思,四个人三个人各30%,助手10%。真正出钱的只有Sanders, 天使投资人。

The best encapsulation of the prevailing opinion of the time is the fact that Western Union, the company that was best placed to understand the commercial importance of fast and accurate information transfer, dismissed the telephone as an irrelevance. In 1876 the Bell consortium, disheartened by their inability to raise capital, turned to Western Union and offered to sell Bell’s patents for $100,000 (just over $8m). Western Union’s president, William Orton, declined the offer, on the grounds that he could not see a viable commercial use for the telephone. “What use,” he asked pleasantly, “could this company make of an electrical toy?”

非常经典的历史故事了。1876年贝尔融不到资,计划把专利卖给西联,却被拒绝了。最终西联被贝尔收购了。

The telephone is so named by its inventor A. G. Bell. He believes that one day they will be installed in every residence and place of business. Bell’s profession is that of a voice teacher. Yet he claims to have discovered an instrument of great practical value in communication which has been overlooked by thousands of workers who have spent years in the field. Bell’s proposals to place his instrument in every home and business is fantastic. The central exchange alone would represent a huge outlay in real estate and buildings, to say nothing of the electrical equipment. In conclusion, the committee feels that it must advise against any investments in Bell’s scheme. We do not doubt that it will find users in special circumstances, but any development of the kind and scale Bell so fondly imagines is utterly out of the question.”

贝尔一开始就想到电话要安装到每家每户、每个办公室。他的发明受益于他之前是个声音老师。这段西联公司的会议纪要很有意思。他们认为争议点居然是未来的使用场景是千家万户还是特定场景。要是特定场景貌似大家就能理解,只是贝尔说起来千家万户就让大家理解他为神经病了。

This tactic was soon augmented by a drive to increase the rate of business growth in a bid to reduce the opportunities for new entrants, and by moves to take control of competitors, either publicly or secretly.

面对有些地方的低价竞争,贝尔的竞争策略也很有意思,尽量多的争夺客户,同时尽量控制对手。

The market strategy was fairly simple: to achieve as close to a monopoly as possible by growth and acquisition, but also to seek to reduce prices in order to stimulate line usage and exclude new competitors.These tactics demanded that AT&T become more efficient and Vail moved to reduce costs by eliminating duplication and increasing efficiency. One by-product of this drive was the consolidation of research activities into what later became the Bell Laboratories.

低谷期的市场策略也很简单,通过并购和成长尽可能实现垄断,同时降价来刺激使用减少竞争。这就需要公司变得更有效率,成本更低,直接的结果就是把不必要的研究部门砍了,成立了后来的贝尔实验室。

The rate of top-line revenue growth slowed from its early rapid pace, an average compounded growth rate of 16% over the 15-year period from 1880 to 1895. In the second phase, growth remained brisk at 14%, but profit margins fell from over 40% to 30%.

贝尔的成长也很难得,连续15年保持16%增速,毛利还超40%;接下来增速虽然降到了14%,但利润率跌到了30%。

For early investors in the American Bell Telephone Company, the rewards were exceptional and were reflected in a rising share price and a dividend payout policy which on average distributed two thirds of the company’s net income in annual dividends.

贝尔的早期投资者回报还不错。

For Bell, the refusal of Western Union to buy his patents marked the birth of American Bell, the Bell operating companies and eventually AT&T. The major milestone in this regard was the decision against Western Union and Elisha Gray, which confirmed Bell’s primacy and the strength of his patent rights. From this point forward, the fortunes of the two companies would march in opposite directions. The message was not lost on the stock market. As soon as the potential of the telephone became clear, the fortunes of those who depended on telegraph revenues went into relative decline. The only action that could have saved Western Union would have been to move swiftly and aggressively to adopt the telephone technology, but this action was barred by the court decision and the subsequent agreement which gave the Bell companies patent protection.

西联的拒绝成就了贝尔,后来的AT&T。

The key decision for AT&T was whether or not to continue with a course of action that would inevitably bring conflict with the authorities. The company preferred the route of compromise that would at least protect its dominant position within the industry. A solution was reached. It was to set the conditions for the company for the next 60 years. In this sense, the management was extremely forward-thinking.

AT&T和政府的合作还是非常巧妙,不合作就被干了。合作实际是保留了公司的垄断权力。非常经典的妥协,有时候监管合作反而是大好事。

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Engines That Move Markets 2123-1

假期开始读这本书,第一版是2001年出的,2018年再版,居然还没有中文翻译版。读进去才发现太有意思了,历史上的故事总是比我们想象的精彩,也一遍一遍重复着。读完估计还要一阵子,就把前面1/3的内容先按惯例做些摘要吧。

The results confirmed what many value investors already knew. First, it is better to be in the market than out – over the long-term, world stock markets rise. Secondly, although on average a bull market is four times greater than bear markets, there is no set pattern that allows simple prediction of when a bull market will end.

总是在市场里要比空仓要好,毕竟牛市平均的涨幅是熊市的四倍。市场里混,错过牛市才是最可怕的。

The fact that while the patterns have not been identical in each case they have been very similar. First, a new invention is greeted with scepticism from incumbent technology and potential new investors. That scepticism is gradually replaced with enthusiasm, as businessmen come to appreciate the sales potential of the new technology. Soon, new entrants are flocking to the market, and venture capital funding is made available. Companies are started; almost all do well (in terms of share price) in the market on a tidal wave of enthusiasm. So far, so good; but as the technology begins to mature, a sense of realism sets in. Inevitably, for some, cash runs out. Companies begin to fold, only the strong survive and naive investors lose money in the huge rationalisation. Pessimism begins to pervade the marketplace and stock prices fall across the board. Eventually, the market stabilizes.

市场故事总是相似的,虽不完全一致。新发明总是先被怀疑,也不被投资人认可。慢慢地,这种怀疑随着企业家看到带来收入的巨大潜力而陆续消除,接着新进入者参与进来,VC也进来投资;早期企业出现,投资回报都不错,市场开始热起来;当技术逐步成熟,有人开始套现离场,但企业开始大量出现,仅强者能够生存,傻乎乎的投资人开始亏钱,悲观情绪上来,股价开始跌。最终市场再稳定下来。也就是:新事物出现,普遍怀疑不信——> 有人大胆尝试,看到前景 ——> 新企业和投资出现,发展不错———> 技术成熟,一大批人冲进来 ——> 发现没那么美好,开始下跌、亏钱——> 市场稳定下来。

Technology may have changed the world – but it has not changed human nature. The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘This time it’s different’ ”. As Mark Twain said, history does not repeat itself exactly, but it rhymes.”

技术改变了世界,但并未改变人性。这正是上面规律的来源,也会继续运行下去。

Any technology that necessitates heavy capital expenditure and requires returns to be earned over an extended period is always going to be a high-risk undertaking – unless, that is, there is some form of protection against competition. This protection may take the form of patent, copyright, legal prohibition or simply fundamental competitive advantage (such as a superior cost curve).

任何需要开始时期大量资本投入后面陆续收回成本的技术都是极高风险的,需要许多保护来减少竞争,比如专利、版权、特许经营权,或者非常大的规模效应。非常简答单无比正确的商业常识。

铁路的故事

However, despite early problems with safety, the advance of the railways proved inexorable. The simple economics of their ability to shift large volumes of both passengers and freight at speeds much faster than horse-drawn coach traffic, and much more cheaply than canals, made their expansion assured.

While the economic power of the railways was obvious, and the technology quickly proven, the introduction of railways in Britain was not a simple or smooth process. Like canals before them, land had to be purchased and existing buildings cleared to allow tracks to be laid between existing urban centres. Compulsory purchase of land has always raised public hackles, and the early locomotives were noisy and dangerous.

The railways of Britain and America followed slightly different paths, but there were many similarities. In both cases their economic superiority caused the respective canal networks to gradually fall into disuse.

经济理性往往是最大的理由,安全并不是。铁路发展初期的安全问题更大,但最终决定其胜出的就是其难得的经济效益,这是真正决定性的——也是所谓“看不见的手”的市场的力量源泉。

同样的顾虑正在自动驾驶这个事情上发生,但也是势不可挡的。

It is ironic, then, that the first railways were built as feeder lines for the canal system. The first railway set up to compete directly with a canal was the Liverpool and Manchester in 1826.

新技术常常作为补充角色出现。1826年利物浦和曼彻斯特间的第一条铁路就是如此,有机会去瞻仰下。

Like the mining stocks, the railway stocks were highly geared instruments. Investors made an initial scrip payment of 5%, with an obligation to provide further funding in the future. If the company’s future prospects were well regarded, as they usually were at the time, the scrip would trade at a premium to its issue price. The implied gearing in the scrips – for a 5% scrip, this was 20 times – was similar to the level of gearing in many modern-day traded options.

当年的矿业股、铁路股居然是只需要首付5%的证券,20倍杠杆!——佩服当年的发明和心脏,难怪一度如此疯狂。

The first railways to be built enjoyed what today would be called ‘first-mover advantage’, but one of the clearest lessons of corporate and investment history is that without some barrier to entry, first-mover advantage can be swiftly lost.

没有进入壁垒的话,领先优势会很快消失。已经是反复被证明的真理了。

As with many dot-com companies 150 or so years later, few of these proposals for later lines rested on rigorous analysis of their revenue-generating potential. Few investors attempted to calculate whether revenue would exceed costs by a sufficient margin to provide an adequate return on invested capital。

即便150年后,投资人的本性依然未变。—— 创始人的计划书很少认真分析潜在收入的可能性;投资人也很少去计算公司未来是否有足够的毛利来提供合适的投资回报。

所以做投资人认真一点,把预测算细致一些;创始人把未来也考虑细致些,本身都极难能可贵,也值得长期坚持。

All four are typical of those that help to bring periods of financial excess to a close. First, as a large number of the shares were partly paid, many investors found they were overgeared and unable to make further payments without selling some of their holdings, which put further downward pressure on the price. Secondly, the financial projections with which many companies had raised money proved wildly over-optimistic – critically, they neglected to take account of the increasingly competitive nature of the business. Thirdly, the environment of speculative euphoria encouraged a fair amount of fraud and business practices that later did not stand up to scrutiny. Finally, the economic and interest rate environment began to change. In October 1845, the Bank of England raised interest rates from 2.5% to 3%, and interest rates continued to rise thereafter.

铁路股狂潮的结束是四个原因,一是投资人负债太高,没钱投不动了;二是公司的财务预测太乐观——开始暴露了;三是狂热中欺诈了,并且还没查证了,影响投资人情绪;四是外部环境的变化,比如加息,压到了最后一根稻草。这个模式似乎也一直在重复。投资者没钱+预测实现不了+欺诈被发现+加息,熊市的典型特征。

Many companies end in liquidation after such a phase. Although the promoters usually emerge with positive returns, and the technology itself succeeds in delivering the results that were forecast, the average investor frequently struggles to emerge with significant returns.

投资对技术方向其实并不能确保带来正的投资回报。许多公司在热潮中进入的最终会破产。早期的投资人通常能拿到正回报,虽然后续技术扩散和发展都验证了当初的预言,后续投资人也会亏损。挣个平均回报不容易,投资人好难。

The final and most notable difference was that, as the major financial centre of the world, Britain was an exporter of capital – and, as a developing market, America was an importer.

金融中心总会是资本输出方,新兴经济体是资本流入方,当年的伦敦 vs 纽约,后来是纽约 vs 中国,接下来如何呢。拭目以待。中国建设金融中心未来肯定是要成为输出方的,未来会形成 中国 vs 其他发展中国家的格局。

In the early years, British investors were unwilling to accept railroad stock directly, preferring to purchase state bonds. In order to raise funds, the railroads exchanged bonds with the state and then sold the state bonds to British investors. The other major form of funding came in the shape of barter payment for the iron rails being exported to America.

Later, however, unscrupulous operators were to discover that this provided the perfect backdoor route to issue new equity. It was a tool deployed to great effect by Jay Gould and his cohorts during the scandal of the battles over the Erie Railroad.

太有趣的故事了。可转换债的发明居然是英国投资人只愿意买债券,美国人却想卖股票给他们这么发明出来的。另外,贸易+借款的融资模式今天中国搞的很大,被欧美广泛批评,但却是当年欧美发明的。接下来鸡贼的美国人还把可转债当成了无限增发的后门。

The key to Vanderbilt’s success was his ability to use technology to remain the lowest-cost competitor (although this alone would probably not have been sufficient).

Again, at first the business was dominated by political patronage. The first steamship operator was Samuel Cunard, who persuaded the British government (on the pretext of trade enhancement and national security) to grant him an annual subsidy of $275,000 ($46m). Cunard charged passengers $200 ($32,000) for the journey; mail cost 24 cents ($40) per letter.

In USA, Edward Collins petitioned the government for a payment of $3m ($472m) upfront and an annual subsidy of $385,000 ($60m). ” In 1852, for example, faced with rising costs, Collins managed to obtain congressional agreement for the subsidy to be raised to $858,000 (over $100m). The subsidised model was also followed in creating the mail lines from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Congress authorised loan payments equivalent to $16,000 per mile in flat land and $32,000 per mile for gradients, to subsidise the westwards expansion”

补贴是新技术发展的常态,蒸汽船、铁路当年都是如此,非常有意思的历史故事。但最终还是要竞争,补贴终究会取消,竞争中低成本就很关键,不是充分条件但相当必要。

当下的新能源补贴、过去的太阳能补贴,都是类似的故事。

The main point is that the war allowed him to sell on his shipping interests and turn his attention to a new growth area, the railroads. By 1862 Vanderbilt had a fortune of some $11m ($1.3bn), invested in a range of companies. The attractive growth areas of the time, though, fell into two categories. The two emerging industries were gas lighting and the railroads, both of which were to form important parts of Vanderbilt’s portfolio of interests.

大佬范德比尔特真是高手,趁着战争能从船运生意切换到铁路,毫不犹豫,套现的钱投了一大堆企业,最后集中到两个事情上,煤气灯和铁路,真正成就了他。事后来看,这两个新方向的选择无比正确,准确踏在时代的节奏上。

How did the stock watering work? A simple example would be where stock was issued to the public and the proceeds were then used to purchase bonds on railroad property from one of the insider parties at a greatly inflated price. ”

高价关联并购的恶果就是股价大跌。特别是靠融资干这个事情的时候,毫无例外,历史上很早就说透了。

A railroad is a highly capital-intensive industry and if this is combined with high interest payments then it will always be at risk during an economic downturn.

铁路这种资本密集行业,负债往往很重,一旦经济下行就是死路一条。

今天中国地产发生的一切正是如此。

It would be possible to turn this round and argue the opposite: that when investors were in a period of optimism typically associated with general prosperity, new ventures were put forward, many of which lacked the compelling economic logic of their predecessors.

By the mid-1870s, almost 40% of American railroad bonds were in default and by 1879 some $234m ($19bn) had foreclosed. In the six years up to 1879, it is estimated that European investors alone lost some $600m ($50bn) as a result of bankruptcies and fraud

投资者的不理性导致的后果是极其严重的,特别是在市场情绪高点的时候,不理性往往随之而来。想象当初O2O大热的岁月,简直不可思议。众多的技术创新前,还是要去精选真正能值得考验的和真正有意义的才行。

美国的铁路高潮带来了40%企业的破产,损失了超过200亿美元,欧洲则损失了500亿美元。但历史依然继续重复。

In addition, a number of collective investment vehicles were put in place to allow smaller private investors to spread their risks. Many of these investment companies and investment trusts are still in operation today; in them lie the roots of the modern mutual fund industry.

集合投资工具的出现倒是不错的副产品,到今天,无论是公募还是私募基金。 c

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