Engines That Move Markets 2123-2

本来计划3篇写完的,摘录完铁路的故事就感觉草率了。干脆不设限制,读到哪写到哪儿吧。

电报的故事

For all the rapid gains in revenue, the mail service represented a lucrative extra rather than a key revenue stream for the railways.

铁路的出现瓦解了原先用马传递的邮政系统,邮政服务给铁路贡献了不少收入。

The telegraph companies were already in receipt of large government subsidies by the time the Civil War broke out. The Pacific Telegraph Act of 1860 provided for up to $40,000 ($5m) per annum in subsidies to telegraph companies in return for transmission of federal messages.

电报产业也得到了大量的政府补贴,虽然在南北战争时期更容易理解。

Even in 1880 Western Union accounted for 80% of America’s telegraph traffic, but with the absorption of B&O, Western Union effectively was the telegraph industry.

西联彻底控制了电报行业,实现垄断。

Ultimately Western Union’s success depended upon two things: the outcome of a series of lawsuits regarding the ownership of the patents on improvements to the telegraph, and a dominant position in the physical ownership of the network. These two aspects were linked, in the sense that without the Western Union patents, ownership of the cables was of little value. There was also some luck. Western Union’s industry dominance had made it careless about protecting its rights.

专利权和线路网络优势帮助西联实现了真正的成功。但也是把双刃剑。和爱迪生关系搞僵后赔了不少钱。

Learning these lessons proved an expensive exercise. Fatally for Western Union, the company did not see the technology shift that would make its patents obsolete. At the time, the potential challenge from the telephone must have seemed remote to a company which had achieved a dominant position in its own new form of information transfer. Not only did it dominate its industry, it also had on its books the most eminent and successful scientists of the age. Western Union’s internal records show that it saw the telephone as only a peripheral threat. It also assumed that should such a threat emerge, the company’s scientific resources and its financial strength would give it the strength to resist. Since the company was in perhaps its most prosperous phase, with strong revenue and profits growth, such a view was not unreasonable. But as history was to prove, it was completely misplaced.”

西联万万没想到的是自己的专利会随着时代变迁过期。西联也看到了电话的威胁,但认为不值得重视,这么简单的看法直接断送了一个时代。而这样的故事还不止于此,反复再上演。

Unfortunately for Bell, the patent was never filed in Britain and thus he failed to obtain protection in the richest market in the world, albeit one where communication was controlled by the public sector.

贝尔公司当年的专利没在英国搞定,直接失去了英国这个最肥的市场。英国市场一向是政府手里的。

The telephone was demonstrated by the difficulty Bell’s colleagues had in raising funds to develop the business. Bell was forced to spend much of his time marketing the new invention, to convince potential backers as to its technical viability and its practical use. Public demonstrations were set up in the presence of venerable scientists, such as Sir William Thomson connecting Boston and New York and conducting a conversation between Bell and Watson. In October 1876 they followed this up with demonstrations between Boston and Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Bell’s marketing campaign included such ‘stunts’ as using 16 Yale professors rather than a wire and letting the current carrying his conversation flow through their bodies. Despite these efforts, it took until May 1877 for the first telephones to be leased. The sum paid was $20 ($1,500). By August the number of telephones in use had expanded to 778 and it became necessary to enter into a more formal business agreement. The Bell Telephone Association was created, with Bell, Hubbard and Sanders each receiving 30% of the shares and Thomas Watson 10%. At that time the venture had no subscribed capital; it had effectively been bankrolled by Sanders, who had signed notes totalling in excess of $110,000 (nearly $10m) and was himself close to bankruptcy.

The investing environment of the time was not conducive to raising capital. Recent great leaps forward in technology had created an earlier bubble; when this burst, it resulted in substantial losses for many investors, leaving the public soured with promises of future advances. Even though Bell’s demonstrations attracted favourable press comment, funds were not readily forthcoming. The disasters, bankruptcies and scandals that followed the financing of the railroads were still fresh in investors’ minds. It required more than a concept, however well marketed, to attract funds. The euphoria which surrounded the railroads and which allowed both the overbuilding and the lack of financial or management controls had evaporated.

贝尔的这段创业还真不容易,刚刚铁路狂潮过去,投资人还没痛的醒过神来就来融资,难度自然是极大的。贝尔公司的原始股权架构很有意思,四个人三个人各30%,助手10%。真正出钱的只有Sanders, 天使投资人。

The best encapsulation of the prevailing opinion of the time is the fact that Western Union, the company that was best placed to understand the commercial importance of fast and accurate information transfer, dismissed the telephone as an irrelevance. In 1876 the Bell consortium, disheartened by their inability to raise capital, turned to Western Union and offered to sell Bell’s patents for $100,000 (just over $8m). Western Union’s president, William Orton, declined the offer, on the grounds that he could not see a viable commercial use for the telephone. “What use,” he asked pleasantly, “could this company make of an electrical toy?”

非常经典的历史故事了。1876年贝尔融不到资,计划把专利卖给西联,却被拒绝了。最终西联被贝尔收购了。

The telephone is so named by its inventor A. G. Bell. He believes that one day they will be installed in every residence and place of business. Bell’s profession is that of a voice teacher. Yet he claims to have discovered an instrument of great practical value in communication which has been overlooked by thousands of workers who have spent years in the field. Bell’s proposals to place his instrument in every home and business is fantastic. The central exchange alone would represent a huge outlay in real estate and buildings, to say nothing of the electrical equipment. In conclusion, the committee feels that it must advise against any investments in Bell’s scheme. We do not doubt that it will find users in special circumstances, but any development of the kind and scale Bell so fondly imagines is utterly out of the question.”

贝尔一开始就想到电话要安装到每家每户、每个办公室。他的发明受益于他之前是个声音老师。这段西联公司的会议纪要很有意思。他们认为争议点居然是未来的使用场景是千家万户还是特定场景。要是特定场景貌似大家就能理解,只是贝尔说起来千家万户就让大家理解他为神经病了。

This tactic was soon augmented by a drive to increase the rate of business growth in a bid to reduce the opportunities for new entrants, and by moves to take control of competitors, either publicly or secretly.

面对有些地方的低价竞争,贝尔的竞争策略也很有意思,尽量多的争夺客户,同时尽量控制对手。

The market strategy was fairly simple: to achieve as close to a monopoly as possible by growth and acquisition, but also to seek to reduce prices in order to stimulate line usage and exclude new competitors.These tactics demanded that AT&T become more efficient and Vail moved to reduce costs by eliminating duplication and increasing efficiency. One by-product of this drive was the consolidation of research activities into what later became the Bell Laboratories.

低谷期的市场策略也很简单,通过并购和成长尽可能实现垄断,同时降价来刺激使用减少竞争。这就需要公司变得更有效率,成本更低,直接的结果就是把不必要的研究部门砍了,成立了后来的贝尔实验室。

The rate of top-line revenue growth slowed from its early rapid pace, an average compounded growth rate of 16% over the 15-year period from 1880 to 1895. In the second phase, growth remained brisk at 14%, but profit margins fell from over 40% to 30%.

贝尔的成长也很难得,连续15年保持16%增速,毛利还超40%;接下来增速虽然降到了14%,但利润率跌到了30%。

For early investors in the American Bell Telephone Company, the rewards were exceptional and were reflected in a rising share price and a dividend payout policy which on average distributed two thirds of the company’s net income in annual dividends.

贝尔的早期投资者回报还不错。

For Bell, the refusal of Western Union to buy his patents marked the birth of American Bell, the Bell operating companies and eventually AT&T. The major milestone in this regard was the decision against Western Union and Elisha Gray, which confirmed Bell’s primacy and the strength of his patent rights. From this point forward, the fortunes of the two companies would march in opposite directions. The message was not lost on the stock market. As soon as the potential of the telephone became clear, the fortunes of those who depended on telegraph revenues went into relative decline. The only action that could have saved Western Union would have been to move swiftly and aggressively to adopt the telephone technology, but this action was barred by the court decision and the subsequent agreement which gave the Bell companies patent protection.

西联的拒绝成就了贝尔,后来的AT&T。

The key decision for AT&T was whether or not to continue with a course of action that would inevitably bring conflict with the authorities. The company preferred the route of compromise that would at least protect its dominant position within the industry. A solution was reached. It was to set the conditions for the company for the next 60 years. In this sense, the management was extremely forward-thinking.

AT&T和政府的合作还是非常巧妙,不合作就被干了。合作实际是保留了公司的垄断权力。非常经典的妥协,有时候监管合作反而是大好事。

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