照明的故事
爱迪生发明电灯的故事过于家喻户晓了，反倒不是好事。让人总感觉知道很多，实际只是一点点而已，于是认真读起来电灯的故事感到非常有意思，也是非常精彩的商业故事。
照明从最早的蜡烛，到鲸油、松节油、煤油到煤气灯盛行一时，再到电孤灯的尝试，才到了白炽灯。白炽灯还经历过直流送电的发电+照明集成，到后来的大电厂+交流输送走到现代，再到今天的LED普及。
有趣的时间表：
- 1812年，UK国会同意建立伦敦和威斯敏斯特的煤气灯；
- 1816年，UK煤气管道超过25英里；美国巴尔的摩成为安装煤气灯的第一个城市；随后纽约1825年安装；
- 1847年，UK通过煤气法案，正式允许煤气灯安装时剖开路面施工；
- 1848年，伦敦博物馆首次展示碳电弧灯；
- 1854年，发明煤油 Kerosene；
- 1878年，电弧灯安装在滑铁卢和威斯敏斯特桥上。爱迪生9月25日和范德比尔特设立电灯公司。
- 1879年，Swan销售他的首个白炽灯。已经是1848年他演示白炽灯原理后的30年。
- 1881年，爱迪生首个授权公司设立，一年后一公里服务500盏灯，12个月后增至500客户，服务1万盏灯。
- 1882年，爱迪生电厂建成了67个；到1886年，建成了700个电站服务18万盏灯客户。
- 1892年，Edison Gerenal Electric和 Thomson Houston合并组建新公司GE。
The demand was certainly there; so great was it that the schools of whales that once roamed the Atlantic had been hunted out of existence or forced away from their traditional feeding grounds. Whale oil prices rose to $2.50 per gallon (almost $400 a gallon in today’s terms), promising high potential returns for viable alternatives.
早期的照明只能用鲸油，相当于今天的400美元一加仑，相当贵了。照明的改善需求显而易见。
Although an expensive form of lighting, town gas existed as a profitable monopoly.
Whatever the reason, it was not long before this complacent stance had to be rethought. The abuse of the gas companies’ monopoly position fostered the desire for new sources of lighting.
正是鲸鱼油的昂贵，才让煤气灯能够垄断性获利。也正是煤气灯公司的垄断能力滥用让大家寻找新的照明方式。
Helping to generate end demand for a product was not a new business strategy even in the 1800s. Before installing arc lighting, a large amount of initial capital was required to fund the cost of the necessary infrastructure. If co-funding could help Brush expand the potential market, then the returns to his manufacturing concerns would increase accordingly.
His decision to help establish the operating companies was assisted by the fact that the level of excitement in the market caused the share prices of the operating companies to rise immediately to a premium, based solely on the expectation of future profits.
照明公司的生意需要一次性重投入。建立运营公司是个很有意思的新主意，股价可以立即涨起来。
Whatever the result, forecasts of profitability for a new technology often overstate its real economic potential, as they ignore the fact that there will be a competitive response. For new entrants, finances are invariably limited, and the inevitable competitive response produces worse-than-expected cash flow. As a consequence, even when the technology actually does prove to be superior, receivership and bankruptcy are still frequently the result.
经典的一段描述。新技术公司的利润预测总是会高估，总是会忽视未来竞争带来的影响。新进入的公司融资就是门槛，加上竞争导致现金流总是比预期要差，所以即便产能有时候能出来也证明不错，但破产也常常无法避免。这个就是残酷的技术投资的现实，现实总是没那么美好，总是要骨感许多。
History records that investors lost huge sums of money by investing in the arc lighting companies. The losses were not a result of a misguided view of electrical light as providing a prospective technological breakthrough. Eventually that breakthrough came. The problem was that this branch of the technology could not provide the type of light required for widespread use, nor could it compete commercially, even in smaller specialist segments of the market.
电弧灯让投资人亏了不少，这个损失让人误以为电灯技术走不通。这样的故事其实也反复上演，一个技术路线走不通其实并不代表类似的技术路线走不通，这个是需要认真、务实去分析再形成结论的。要避免被误导。
Without a perception of success, this capital was unlikely to be forthcoming, so maintaining optimism was vital. Luckily, this was something which Edison, for one, fully understood.
爱迪生的最大特长还不是发明，而是演说。能在技术成熟前就忽悠投资人相信一定能搞成。这个其实是核心能力。
He was a prolific inventor, with more than 1,000 patents to his name. Most of the leading financiers of the day, including Gould, Morgan and Rothschild, were involved in ventures of his in some shape or form. Many of these were commercial failures, but others were not. His lighting company eventually was to become General Electric, while many electric utilities in the USA began by franchising his technology, and still bear his name today。
爱迪生是职业发明家，拥有千余项专利。当代的大企业家古尔德、摩根和罗斯柴尔德都和他一起成立过公司，许多公司就失败了。当然也有成功的，他的电灯公司最后变成了GE。
The Vanderbilts, for example, had been heavily involved with Western Union, and had thus experienced at firsthand both the threats and opportunities posed by technological innovation.
As well as their railroad and telegraph interests, they were substantial investors in gas companies. When news of Edison’s discovery reached them, they reacted quickly. On 25 September 1878 their business manager was dispatched to meet Edison and acquire an interest in this new competing technology. Within a month, a new company with a proposed capitalisation of $300,000 ($50.5m) had been formed. Edison was to receive $150,000 ($25.25m) in phases, in return for 50% of his interest. The Vanderbilt family made their investment through Western Union, so as to avoid undermining publicly their existing gas company interests. Edison received an initial tranche of $30,000 ($5.5m) on 12 October 1878.
范德比尔特真是大牛，搞运河能成功卖掉，转到搞铁路，成了大佬。同时还成功搞了电报，而今深入参与煤气照明事业，新技术的节奏踏的无比准，还几乎都投到了早期，真是大神。能够洞穿技术创新带来的威胁和机会。
老范派手下和爱迪生见一面，一个月之内新公司就设好了，股本5000w美元，老范投资占50%。动作迅速、大手笔。深入参与煤气照明的同时，能够这么快做出决策大手笔投资竞争性的电灯事业，绝对高手。
9月25日设立新公司，10月12日首笔资金到账，投资款的20%。没有国庆假期，17天时间，150年前真可谓神速了！
He had two principal barriers to overcome. Firstly, he had to come up with a cheaper filament than platinum, one which demonstrated the same resistance to combustion as platinum did. Secondly, he had to devise an electric motor to run the lamps. He also had to maintain the confidence of his investors and the general public.
爱迪生真不容易。首先是两个困难需要克服，一是需要找到替代铂金的灯丝，二是搞个发电机出来。都太难了，他还得给投资人讲故事让大家相信，让大众相信一定能成功。这个事情绝对是大多数人不知道的。
It was an extremely taxing time for him since the work pressure was combined with his own illness and an extremely difficult pregnancy for his wife. If this was not enough, one of his rivals, a gentleman called William Sawyer, visited Western Union and contended that he had progressed further than Edison in terms of improving filament technology
爱迪生的创业也真心难，工作压力很大，自己还生病，媳妇还好不容易怀孕，家里肯定是一团乱。同时竞争对手去自己的投资人那里忽悠说有了更好的技术，釜底抽薪啊。这个状态，心态不崩就是高手，爱迪生还能从容应对！
The importance of maintaining confidence with a powerful and convincing presentation was not lost on Edison, and he put on a performance of theatrical proportions, which led to a new contract for Edison himself and the release of new funds.
In other words, the presentation relied on Edison’s persuasive skills rather than on an active demonstration of technological advancement.
The fact that his audience was financiers, a group of people not typically blessed with in-depth knowledge of technology, undoubtedly helped. Edison continued to raise expectations through the use of the press.
爱迪生也真是命大，幸亏投资人不懂太多，给大家的演示才能蒙混过关，拿到新钱。忽悠能力本身还是非常重要的。
This ignorance was a substantial contributor to his refusal to accept the impossibility of certain things which his experience suggested to him could be achieved. Edison himself said many times that for this very reason he had been saved from the dangers of accepting such ‘impossibilities’. Edison’s faith in his own ability to solve problems sustained him, and his confident manner would sustain investors through such attacks.
不信现有教条是个好习惯，才能办成那些看起来不可能的事情。否则自己也相信本就不可能的话，头都开不了。
Although the Tesla induction motor was to become of vital importance to the subsequent success of Westinghouse, the extended and costly development period added so much to the increasing capital costs that in 1893 the company was near to financial collapse.
好技术也可能把公司搞死，投资真是件专业的事情。特斯拉当年的电动机非常重要，也成就了西屋公司，但巨大的成本在1893年也差点把公司搞死。
Despite advances in DC technology, he was unable to match Westinghouse, and Edison’s sales agents began to desert him.
交流点技术让爱迪生追不上西屋公司，连销售代理都改换门庭了，这等困难也是一般人都很难翻身了。
As the electrical supply and lighting market began to take shape, competition over patents was reduced by the formation of patent-pooling arrangements
专利竞争被专利池安排陆续替代，巨大的进步。
The main point, though, was that capital was willing to flow to the new ‘hot’ area well before viability had been established. This process was either assisted or stimulated by the support of the financial press and the promoters of the new companies.
资本总是会被媒体报道或者新兴公司的故事忽悠进早期赛道。
The Brush companies’ activities represented basic business strategy – a strategy repeated in most industries where infrastructure development was a pre-condition for increasing the number of end users.
基础设施+终端用户，众多行业的典型商业模式。
The irony was that when Edison began to make progress with the incandescent lamp, the press – supported by the scientific community – proved to be substantially more sceptical. Edison knew the importance of propaganda and worked extremely hard to maintain a confident public façade, even when progress lagged expectation. This was vital, since without such a façade it is unlikely that the available financial backers, chastened by the demise of arc lighting, would have provided sufficient capital to bring the technology to a commercial footing. Even with Edison’s track record, there were numerous periods when further capital was nearly not forthcoming.
资本总是残酷的，雪中送炭的很少。就连爱迪生也几次因资金问题差点关门，最后是靠媒体、靠忽悠解了燃眉之急。眼下的创业者也有不少媒体高调，好好利用媒体的，不是坏事。
Picking the technology was only one part of the equation. It certainly assisted in identifying the losers, the ‘old’ technology companies, but selecting the winners required the patience to wait until the industry had matured sufficiently to evolve into an appropriate operating structure. Effectively this meant waiting for a recession to cause the shake-out.
选对技术只是其一，当然会有助于选出来不行的，选出赢家是需要等行业相对成熟、形成有效的经营和盈利结构的。有效意味着要经历衰退把输家淘汰出去。